Business and commercial benefits Digitizing management Ping na Thalang Although the microcomputer has been around for quite sometime, it is in this past ten years that its presence really revolutionised businesses. While we may have new innovations such as palmtop computers, ultrathin notebook, smart home appliances, etc., it is the networking of modern high-powered PCs that plays a pivotal role in managing businesses. Talking about networking, the Network Computer (NC) was poised to be the PC killer due to its simplicity and network-centric architecture, but with limited viable applications of a transactional processing nature, NC's sales will remain stagnant for some time. However, it helped to spark the development of high-performance networking devices like fast switches, smart storage devices and super servers. As for the most significant software innovation or product(s) of the decade, without a doubt this was the commercial use of the Internet, thanks to the proliferation of the web-browsers, and ever-increasing bandwidth. However, we still see the key role that operating systems, especially Windows 95-98, have played in the industry as highlighted by the Microsoft's anti-trust suit. The OS is the basic layer that all kinds of applications are built upon. The fact that a home brew, open source, Unix-based OS Linux - a new and potent threat to Windows - is embraced by a major industry powerhouse underscores the OS as the heart of computer systems. But the Net also indirectly gives us a new player that may create a greater impact than OS, and that is the document type (as in HTML - Hyper Text Markup Language, and XML - Extensible Markup Language.) These Net-based document "languages" will revolutionise the way we communicate electronically (via a single non-proprietary standard) which will create a chain reaction that may spell the end of virtual monopoly of applications and OS held by Microsoft. As for peripherals, there haven't been many technological breakthroughs in this field in the past decade, but the most significant evolution has been many cost-down developments of existing technologies. This has created cheap, high-quality printers, scanners, high-capacity hard-disks or faster CD drives enabling users to do more for less, while the innovation of the high-speed Universal Serial Bus (USB) should help standardise peripheral connections for many years to come. The most significant industry event of the decade was the Microsoft anti-trust suit, demonstrating the vulnerability of the "invincible" giant. It is the first time the mighty Microsoft has faced the serious danger of drastic measures cooked up by the US Department of Justice (including the possible breaking up the company, the opening up of the Windows source code, etc.) The suit already impacted a recent internal reorganisation. No matter what the outcome may be, the event will be the starting point for more changes in the landscape of computer technology (and certainly for Microsoft) in a near future. Of course, we can't ignore the Y2K phenomenon that has been gathering steam since the beginning of the year. The Y2K event will have a lasting impact on how general business handles its IT functions long after 2000. The impact will create more awareness on the management aspect of the technology, rather than focusing on the technology alone. Thailand needs to revamp IT education that covers not only the supply-side education (teachers, students, etc.) but also to focus on the demand-side (corporate and general users, etc.) as well. Users need to be informed on the effective use of a computer system. They need to be educated on the practical methodology of designing a business process that is "computer-friendly" - I bet that's the term you don't hear often. "User-friendliness" looks great on sale brochures, but the fact of life remains that computer system needs to be designed, and work upon a systematic business process - not a chaotic one - to be truly work- effective, and cost-effective. Demand-side education is the key to successful overall education system. If we have corporate users who demand practical solutions, instead of blindly following every fashionable IT trend, the supply-side education will have to readjust itself accordingly to serve the demand of a new and prudent market. The biggest challenge facing the IT industry globally today is ironically not technology itself. IT will propel forward - for good or bad - due to competition and/or plain old curiosity. There will always be a series of new technologies coming out from R&D laboratories, spiced up by fancy marketing schemes. The real challenge facing IT industry today is the acceptance from the public. e-commerce must overcome the greatest hurdle of making sure buyers (and vendors) feel protected - legally. The Internet use will be more widespread if parents feel more secure letting their children surf on-lined. Corporate buyers will invest more in IT when they feel less victimised by aggressive campaigns and commission-hungry salespeople. It's all about acceptance. The most significant trend today is that instead of more powerful computing power, I see cheaper computers that will become the digital infrastructure in areas that have not been impacted by digital technology much in the past. While we'll see Moore's law (the doubling of computing power every 18 months) in action for years to come, (although the time to market will decrease somewhat due to business reasons), the trend will be that more digital appliances will play a vital role in how we live our daily lives. This is made possible by scaled-down, cost-down development, which helps to push computer logic into ordinary consumer electronics. What products will we be reading about in Database in another 10 years' time? We'll see more stories digital technology converging with other industries, starting from communication, medical science and manufacturing, etc. We'll also see more news of scaled-down, cost-down developments of hardware appliances and more innovations in interface technology such as voice recognition, character recognition, natural language recognition, etc. Internationally, we'll see more news of breakthroughs by unknown inventors, fuelled by cheap, yet-powerful computers. On the local scene, things will remain pretty much the same as they are today. When it comes to Thailand, however, I have to admit I am a pessimist about the future of the IT industry in the near future. By its own natural evolution, the local IT industry will be better than is today locally, but it won't be on the cutting edge of world, as many people might hope. Some might be tempted to blame the delay in creating awareness in IT research. Starting late is not the issue, but starting on the wrong foot is. Thai authorities put too much emphasis on the centralisation of knowledge and privilege, such as with the creation of the exclusive and extravagant Software Park. Educators misuse the technology by emphasising the hardware aspect of the technology rather than focussing on the quality of teaching content, while on a higher education level, they believe in archaic software-engineering theories rather than a practical, real-world approach. They should just take a look a MIS curriculum offered at any local graduate school. For the next five years, we'll continue to see pictures of smiling IT executives shaking hands, making deals to distribute costly imported products; and on the service front - over-kill, over-priced system development methodologies. And we'll continue to see stories of government officials lamenting at the lack of qualified IT staff - as they have been doing for the past decade. We may - if we're lucky - be seeing a story or two of Thai software developers making "killer-apps" that revolutionise the world. And we might even see one IT success story (NOT a success in system implementation) by a Thai company whose pragmatic use of IT, propel it into the world leader of its own industry - but that's wishful thinking. You can e-mail Ping na Thalang at ping@computer.org Back to top