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Thai
Rak Thai poised for landslide
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| Encouraged by the popularity of its politics,
Thai Rak Thai eyes 400 seats in the 500-seat Parliament in the
Feb 6 election, which would allow it to goven throughout its
next term without the threat of censure. |
The
question heading up to the 2005 general elections on Feb 6 isn't whether
Thai Rak Thai will win, but rather, by how much?
As in 2001, the magic number for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
once again is 400 seats, which under the constitution would allow
Thai Rak Thai to govern its next term without the threat of censure
for either himself or his cabinet ministers.
Most pundits would say 400 would be difficult _ TRT planners themselves
see 350 as a more realistic goal. This would still be a step up from
2001, when TRT captured 248 seats outright in the last election.
Such dominance can be equally credited to TRT's mastery of the art
of political marketing and the general incoherence of the opposition
parties.
From an economic perspective, most would be willing to credit the
business-minded government for its successes in rebuilding growth,
estimated at around 6% for 2004. Exports are currently running at
record highs, reflecting in part the government's strong trade and
investment focus in its foreign policy platform.
And while the government's handling of crises such as the bird flu
and southern violence has been at times confusing, contradictory and
deceptive, recent polls suggest that neither will lead the electorate
to reject Mr Thaksin in his bid for a second term.
Likewise, allegations that the government's policies have been marked
by conflicts of interest and as largesse for special interest groups
also do not appear to be a significant deterrent for the majority
of voters.
Only perhaps among the wealthier, better educated Bangkok constituencies
will such issues take centre stage, but hardly enough to sway the
results of the election.
The reality remains that for many, Mr Thaksin's autocratic CEO-style
and his demonstrated mentality that the means very much justifies
the ends is an attractive one. Politics is as much a point of style
as substance, and Mr Thaksin, backed by a veritable army of policy
wonks and marketing experts, has no shortage of either.
TRT's policy platform entering the 2005 election is an extension of
government policy over the past four years, with a heavy focus on
poverty alleviation and community development initiatives.
Yes, some of the policies represent blatant showmanship, such as the
promise to distribute two million cows nationwide or dig new 1,260-cubic-metre
wells for farmers nationwide for just 2,500 baht. Others are extensions
of existing popular programmes, such as the war on drugs, the Ua-arthorn
low-cost housing programme.
Less promoted,
no doubt due to political sensitivities, is the fact that TRT will
also continue with its policies to strengthen the capital market,
privatise state enterprises and increase Thailand's presence in foreign
markets through bilateral free-trade agreements.
TRT's counterpart, the Democrat Party, was punished in the last election
for vastly underestimating the popularity that Mr Thaksin was able
to attract through bold ideas.
But the Democrats, the country's oldest political party, remain embroiled
in an inner battle of identity and conscience, epitomised by the camps
represented by party leader and veteran Banyat Bantadtan and the younger,
more charismatic deputy leader Aphisit Vejjajiva. This split has reflected
itself in the party's campaign strategy and policy platform, which
appears to rely more on dire warnings of TRT's own policy shortcomings
rather than presenting any meaningful alternatives of their own.
The Democrat Party's five-point platform includes promises of free
education and health care, job security for new graduates and debt
relief for farmers.
But these are simple refinements of areas already well-trodden by
TRT, and seem hardly sufficient to unseat the incumbents.
The Democrats may well carry many of Bangkok's constituencies, and
should win seats in its traditional power base in the southern provinces.
But the 2005 election is not so much the Democrat's to win, but rather
Thai Rak Thai's to lose.
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