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There are a lot of important international stories this week and at least two of them should be coming to a head right about now.
In Iraq, for example, the new constitution should now be finished. The official deadline for the committee drafting it was August 15, although members did have an option for a short delay. They were under great pressure not to so, however, and they have been working almost non-stop to meet the deadline.
If they did produce a workable document acceptable to all parties, it will be a minor miracle. The differences between Iraq’s major groups - the Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds - are quite substantial. During the drafting process there have been deadlocks over key issues such as the status of Kurdish territories, the relationship between religion and the state, and the rights of women. Even the formal name of the country has been in dispute.
Assuming there haven’t been delays and that the constitution is indeed ready and it has been approved by the interim Iraqi parliament, the next step is to submit the draft to the Iraqi people for approval or rejection. A referendum is supposed be held by mid-October. Then, if it is accepted, national elections for a permanent government are to be scheduled for mid-December.
A big reason behind the haste is that Iraqi and coalition leaders believe that once the country has a permanent constitution and government acceptable to all of Iraq’s principle groups, support for the insurgency will quickly wane.
That may be too optimistic, but at least we can hope. Check the news section today and tomorrow to see if the first step – the drafting of the constitution – has been completed.
Israel, Gaza and the West Bank
Meanwhile, on the other side of the Middle East, the operation to remove the remaining Israeli settlers from Gaza should now be underway. There, too, August 15 was the deadline.
Altogether about 9,000 settlers are involved and most of them are expected to leave peacefully. Some resistance is likely, however, and the government is mobilising a huge military and police force – far outnumbering the settlers – to make sure everyone leaves on time.
The operation appears to have the support of a large portion of the Israeli population – 65-70 percent according to some polls. They believe that giving up these settlements will help defuse tensions in the area. It will also reduce the burden on the Israeli military which has had to defend the settlements, many of which are completely surrounded by Palestinian communities.
The settlers are not being forced leave empty-handed. Each will receive compensation averaging between $200,000 to $300,000 (8-12 million baht) and the government is providing them with new places to stay.
The whole initiative is really the work of one man - Israeli Prime Minister Arial
Sharon. It has been carried out at great political cost with his own Likud Party becoming deeply divided Just last week his finance minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, himself a former prime minister, resigned in protest. A general election is coming and both men are likely to be vying for the party leadership.
Internationally, Mr Sharon has been widely applauded for his perseverance in bringing about the withdrawal. But there are also suspicions that a big reason he wants the Gaza settlements dismantled is that this will relieve international pressure for withdrawing from the far larger settlements in the Palestinian West Bank. Watch this week to see if the first withdrawal goes smoothly.
Japan
Finally, in our region of the world, the big news is the upcoming Japanese election. It has come about very suddenly, a direct result of the failure of one of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s most important reform initiatives to pass the Japanese Parliament.
For more than a decade, Mr Koizumi has been fighting to privatise the Japanese postal system, a system he feels is one of Japan’s most backward and wasteful. Actually, it is far more than the mail delivery system we normally think of when we hear the word “postal”. It is also a postal savings system, essentially a huge government bank and insurance company, possibly the world’s biggest financial institution with the Japanese government its largest investor.
Mr Koizumi and many other postal system critics say the whole operation is woefully inefficient at its best and corrupt at its worst. He believes this so strongly that as soon as he lost the parliamentary vote, he called a snap election to win more public support for his reform programme.
What is interesting here is that Japan’s 270,000 postal workers have long been some of the strongest and most loyal supporters of the prime minister’s Liberal Democratic Party. Thus, like Israel, we are seeing a significant split in the ruling party.
Indeed, 22 Liberal Democratic members in the upper house of Parliament voted against the postal reform legislation that ended up failing by only 17 votes.
Ideally, such divisions are not something that a party leader would like to see going into a general election and it will be interesting to see how Mr Koizumi carries out his campaign. The election is scheduled for September 11, so you can expect to see considerable coverage in the Bangkok Post as that date approaches.
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coming to a head
of a situation that needs to be dealt with immediately
drafting
writing
miracle
an act that does not seem to be possible or to follow the rules of nature
substantial
large; important
deadlock
a situation whether no side is willing to give in, so no agreement can be reach
status
the current standing or situation
interim
temporary; existing for a short period of time until being replaced
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referendum
a vote in which the people of a country are asked whether they agree or disagree with a particular policy
permanent
lasting for a long time or forever; not temporary
haste
doing something very quickly
insurgency
fighting against your own government or armed forces
wane
to become weaker, often disappearing completely
optimistic
expecting something good to happen
underway
(of an activity) already started
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mobilising
putting in place to be ready for action
portion
part
defuse
to make a dangerous situation calm or much less dangerous
tensions
feelings of fear or nervousness
compensation
money paid for harm done
initiative
an important action intended to solve a problem
vying
competing
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applauded
praised
perseverance
continuing to do something difficult and not giving up
dismantled
took apart and closed down
relieve
to cause to disappear or be less unpleasant
woefully
very badly or undesirably
snap
sudden
campaign
a planned set of actions to achieve something, in this case persuading voters to support you
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