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In Iraq, things are right where we left them last week – only possibly worse. As you might remember last Tuesday, the committee writing the country’s new constitution was supposed to have finished its final draft by that Monday and to have submitted it to the interim parliament for approval.
That didn’t happen. It turned out that disagreements were too strong among the various ethnic and religious groups represented in the drafting committee, and things were pushed back by one week. That made yesterday the deadline. Check today’s front section to see if negotiations have gone down to the wire once again.
This time, the consequences of a failure could be very serious. Another extension of the deadline is very unlikely, so parliament would have to be dissolved and the whole process would have to begin again.
In other words, there would have to be another national election to choose a new interim parliament. Its members would then have to select a new constitutional drafting committee. With the current violence in the country continuing unabated, that could lead to one big mess.
If, by some miracle, the drafting committee does produce a constitution on time and it is approved by the interim parliament, watch closely to see how it deals with the major areas of disagreement. Did the writers find a way to reach a genuine agreement, or did they simply paper over the problems, leaving them to be solved at a later time?
For example, what kind of a government does the constitution stipulate? The Sunnis, who control the least wealthy regions of the country, areas that are largely lacking in oil reserves, want a strong central government so that the country’s resources can be fairly shared.
Many Shiites, on the other hand, want a much weaker central government, so that their oil rich southern provinces can keep most of the revenues the oil industry generates — something that never happened under Saddam Hussein.
The Kurds, who, unlike the Sunnis and Shiites, are not Arabs and who have their own non-Arabic language, want the weakest central government possible. They, too, have major oil resources, but they also suffered greatly under Saddam Hussein and they do not want to allow any chance of that happening again.
In fact, many Kurds want the constitution to give them the right to secede from Iraq altogether. Satisfying all these groups is going to take a bit of magic.
Meanwhile, in the Jewish settlements in Palestinian-controlled Gaza, things are very different from the way we left them last week. As you have undoubtedly seen on television, Israeli security forces have been busy evicting both settlers and the protestors who gathered to support them.
The expulsion process is ahead of schedule and all 21 settlements may be cleared as early as today. That won’t mean an immediate end to the Israeli presence in Gaza — Israeli troops may stay there until the end of the year dismantling the settlements — but it create a very new political and economic situation for the Palestinians.
Already, rival factions like Fatah and Hamas are claiming credit for the Israeli exit and they are competing for political control.
One of the biggest challenges for Palestine leaders is what to do with the land where the Jewish settlements are located — covering 20 percent of the total area of Gaza. Land is extremely scarce in Gaza which itself is only about a quarter of the size of Bangkok. How it is used will be very closely monitored by the 1.3 million people who live there.
Fortunately, the lucrative greenhouses in the settlements will remain, the result of a $14 million payment to the owners from international donors. These greenhouses produce high-quality herbs, lettuce, tomatoes, cucumbers and flowers, mostly for export and they could provide employment for up to 10,000 Palestinians.
Certainly one of the most obvious benefits of the Israeli withdrawal for ordinary Palestinians will be freedom of movement. Gone will be the disruptive checkpoints and detours that could turn an ordinary 30-minute car ride into one of five hours.
One big unanswered question so far is what the withdrawal from Gaza will mean for the longer-term Israel-Palestinian peace process. Will it be only the first stage of a more general withdrawal that will include the majority Jewish settlements from the Palestinian-occupied West Bank?
Most analysts believe that is highly unlikely. The settler population in Gaza was less than 9,000, whereas more than 240,000 live in the West Bank settlements. If the resistance to eviction was strong in Gaza, it would be far stiffer in the West Bank. Still, if the Israelis want a lasting peace with the Palestinians, there will have to be some difficult compromises. Watch to see if they happen.
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draft
a version of something that is not yet completely final
submitted
given to people in authority for consideration
interim
intended to last for only a short time
ethnic
connected to a nation, race or tribe
go down to the wire
a situation where the final result is not decided or known until the very end
consequences
effects; results
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extension
an increase in the time period when something must be done
dissolved
officially ended
unabated
without becoming less strong
miracle
something that does not seem to be possible
paper over
to try to hide a problem or disagreement in a way that is temporary and not likely to be successful
stipulate
to state clearly and firmly
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secede
to officially leave a country to become independent
evicting
forcing to leave; expulsion
expulsion
eviction; forcing to leave
dismantling
taking apart
rival
competing; opposing
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exit
departure; withdrawal; leaving
scarce
not enough of something
monitored
watched closely
disruptive
causing problems
compromises
giving things up in order to win an agreement
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