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This column covers "developing stories" meaning that you can expect additional stories on the same subject in the near future. The material that follows was written using much of the same language as your Bangkok Post writers use in their stories. February 1, 2005

INTERNATIONAL The Iraqi election: assessing the process Perfect no, but can the poll be considered a success? The Iraqi election is the kind of story where you want to turn quickly to the front section to find out the latest news. I suggest you do this, but first, here a few things to watch for. Did the massive security measures put in place for the election actually work? In the days before the election, borders were sealed, travel was severely restricted and night-time curfews were instituted — all intended to make it as difficult it as possible for insurgents to mount attacks. Coalition and Iraqi forces also blocked off roads leading to polling places and installed concrete barriers in front of them to foil car bombers. Was this enough or did the heightened security actually scare off voters? Look for the turnout figures. Anything above 50 percent nationwide would be a big accomplishment. But turnout alone is not the whole story. Everyone expected the vote in the country’s relatively safe Shiite and Kurdish areas to be heavy — approaching 100 percent in some areas. But what happened in less secure areas, particularly those with a large Sunni majority? Most Sunnis were never enthusiastic about the elections in the first place, fearing their position in the new Iraq would be marginalised. On top of that, local Sunni clerics urged their followers to boycott the election and insurgents threatened to kill anyone who did venture out to vote. Find out what happened. This is important because having a new government without significant Sunni representation could lead to a civil war. It's probably much too early to look for election results. Last week, one top election official estimated that vote-counting would take six to 10 days. Look to see if there are more precise estimates today. Watch also to see if voter confusion was a problem. There were roughly 19,000 candidates running for National Assembly or regional legislatures. Candidates ran either as independents or on one of 111 party lists. Because of the dangerous security situation, most of the candidates’ names were not even made available to the voters until the very last minute. The same was true, believe it or not, with the locations of many of the polling stations. The National Assembly, whose two main jobs will be to select an interim government and write a new constitution, will have 275 seats. As the votes are counted, watch closely which political grouping gains the largest number of those seats. Expected to do well is the United Iraqi Alliance, a coalition of Shiite groups backed by the influential Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani. Another force to watch is the Iraqi National Accord, a secular party, headed by Interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. Then there is the Kurdish Alliance, the only party representing Iraq’s significant Kurdish minority. When the votes are counted and the National Assembly is formed, it is unlikely that any one party will have a majority. This means two or more parties will have to agree to work together as a coalition in order to form the transitional government. As we know from experience here in Thailand, that can be a difficult and time-consuming process. Here is a question that is going to receive a lot of attention in the next few weeks: How will the new government deal with the American-led coalition? Will it, as many Iraqis hope, ask the international military forces to leave? It could happen. We’ll soon find out.

Know these words and phrases sealed closed off insurgents people fighting against the government or armed forces of their own country mount to organise and begin an activity foil to prevent from succeeding turnout the percentage of those who have the right to vote who actually vote marginalised treated as being unimportant clerics religious leaders boycott to refuse to take part in something venture to risk going somewhere roughly approximately interim temporary; transitional; intended to last only until something more permanent takes its place Ayatollah a high-ranking Shiite religious leader secular not connected with religion majority more than half

LOCAL Uphill battle With a TRT win almost certain, the question is how strong an opposition it will face Prime Minister Thaksin waves to a huge crowd at Surin railway station yesterday, while on his train tour of the Northeast to campaign for votes. — BOONNARONG BHUDIPANYA As election day approaches in Thailand, we are getting the usual charges and counter-charge as candidates and political parties accuse their foes of fraud, intimidation and smear tactics. Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has tried to stay above the fray and project himself as a decisive national leader who deserves another four years in power. Thus far, his game plan seems flawless and he again proving himself to be a master campaigner. Last Sunday he stole a page out of the US political book by staging a whistle-stop tour of the vote-rich lower Northeast. Mr Thaksin knows well that a train arriving at a station jam-packed with enthusiastic supporters guarantees great media coverage and he took full advantage. His opponents are having a difficult time matching Mr Thaksin’s tactics, although the Democrats have had some success with their 201 campaign. That is the number of parliamentary seats that they must win if they want to be able to censure the prime minister in parliament. The Democrats are hoping this will be a persuasive argument for voters who are worried that the Thai Rak Thai Party has become too strong. An effective democracy, the argument goes, requires a strong opposition to keep the government in line. It is hard to see where the 201 votes will come from, however. The Democrats are likely to do well in their southern stronghold, but that will still leave them far short of their goal. They may pick up some seats in Bangkok, but analysts warn they may fall short of the nine they won in the last election. Constituency 7, the focus of today’s instant lesson, is an interesting example of how tough a fight the Democrats are up against. Traditionally, this district has supported the Democrats and the party is fielding a highly qualified candidate in Korn Chatikavanij, but he is up against popular television and movie star Danuporn “Brook” Punnakant. Here, name recognition could be a big problem for the Democrats. The other two main parties, Chart Thai and the fledgling Mahachon Party, are having an even tougher time. Their biggest problem is garnering the 5 percent of the national vote necessary to elect party-list candidates. In the last election, Chart Thai just went over the threshold with 5.4 percent of the vote. But that party has been hit hard by defections, including big vote-getters like Sonthaya Khunpluem, the tourism and sports minister, and Newin Chidchob, the agriculture deputy minister. Meanwhile, the Mahachon Party, which is contesting its first election, remains a big question mark. It does have some well-known and wealthy members, but it will be hard to generate the 1.5 million or so votes it will need to beat the party-list requirement. foes opponents fraud cheating intimidation using threats to create fear smear tactics unfairly accusing an opponent of wrongdoing above the fray (of a leader) not taking part in the trading of accusations with opponents flawless without mistakes page out of the US political book a strategy or method commonly used by US politicians whistle-stop tour (of a political campaign) travelling by train and stopping a various stations for campaign rallies jam-packed very crowded censure to formally criticise a minister in a parliamentary debate after which a vote is taken to determine if the minister still has the support of a majority in parliament keep in line to make sure someone carries out a job or duty properly constituency a district have a single representative in parliament fledgling very new and only beginning to develop garnering achieving; gathering defection the process of leaving one group and joining another eligible having the right to do something comprehensive full and complete; wide-ranging •This lesson was prepared by Acharn Terry Fredrickson, BA Stanford, MA (TESL) University of Minnesota, Manager/Editor of the Learning Post at the Bangkok Post and general editor of this programme. Read our other What's news columns here. Back to our home page |© The Post Publishing Public Co., Ltd. All rights reserved 2005 | Last modified: January 31, 2005