INTERNATIONAL
A welcome change: Some good news from the Middle East
As Iraqis vote in large numbers,
Israel and Palestinian leaders meet in Egypt
For the first time in many months, almost everyone can agree that there has been some positive news on the political front out of the Middle East. Even the price of oil fell a bit as a result.
The event that captured most of our attention, of course, was the election in Iraq. Millions of Iraqis defied insurgent threats of a bloodbath to exercise their right to vote. In the end, there was violence — more than 50 people died — but it was far less than expected. That is definitely good news.
What the Iraqis were actually voting for was not widely understood, however — even among many Iraqis themselves. This week, all of us will get a better chance to find out. First we should get an official announcement of both the turnout and the results. Indeed, you may even be able to find that information in the front section of the Bangkok Post today.
The turnout is important because: 1) we want to know the percentage of eligible voters actually voted; and 2) more significantly, we want to know how Iraq’s three main population groups voted. Of particular concern is the Sunni population, a distinct minority in numerical terms, but the group that held most of the political power under Saddam Hussein and the privileges that went with it.
It is very likely that the Sunni vote was very low and, as a result, this group will be poorly represented in the new parliament. Analysts fear this could inflame an already volatile situation since most of the support for the insurgency comes from the Sunni areas of the country.
The overall election results are obviously important because they will give us an idea of how easy or how difficult it will be to form a government, and also who might be expected to head that government.
Many observers expect that the new government will be dominated by Shiite politicians, probably those with strong connections to the revered Shiite cleric, the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. But they may not be very united and, as a result, groups loyal to Interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi could have a strong say as well.
Watch to see what happens and watch especially to see if the new Iraqi leaders make a special effort to give the Sunnis a significant role in government.
Remember also that the new parliament’s main job, apart from selecting a new government, is to write the country’s constitution. Here the question is whether the constitution will be based largely on Shiite religious values — something that could anger the country’s Sunni and Kurdish minorities — or if it will be more secular in character.
Meanwhile, there have been also some positive developments in the long-standing Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hopefully, that trend will continue today as Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon travels to Egypt to meet the new president of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas.
Since coming to power in an election held only weeks after the death of long-time political leader Yassir Arafat, Mr Abbas has worked very hard trying to reduce the level of violence existing between the two neighbours. He has even gone so far as to station Palestinian security forces in border areas to discourage militants from launching attacks on Israel. Mr Abbas has called such attacks counterproductive, gaining nothing while leading to the deaths of over 3,000 Palestinians in the past four years.
Israeli government leaders clearly want to reciprocate and today’s meeting may clarify what actions they will be willing to take. The Israeli cabinet has approved a package of measures, including the gradual withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from five West Bank cities and the release of about 900 Palestinian prisoners.
Mr Abbas is likely to ask for much more, so the meeting may not go as smoothly as most people would like. Watch to see what happens. It is very important that Mr Abbas is seen by his own people as gaining significant concessions from the Israelis. Otherwise the militants may strike out again — a major setback for Mr Abbas, Mr Sharon and the whole peace process. And since the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is one of the main causes of Muslim discontent around the world, it could be bad news for all of us.
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Worlds apart from Iraq, voting proceeds peacefully at this Sukhumvit-area polling station in the heart of Bangkok.