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This column covers "developing stories" meaning that you can expect additional stories on the same subject in the near future. The material that follows was written using much of the same language as your Bangkok Post writers use in their stories.
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LOCAL/INTERNATIONALBird flu trumps politicsInternational concern grows over the threat of a global pandemic
The reason is not that Mr Prathum is famous or that he did something remarkable. Instead, he was cited as an unwitting example of why the world’s next pandemic may originate right here in Southeast Asia. That is more newsworthy to the Washington Post’s readership than Thai politics. After losing his flock during last year’s bird-flu cull, Mr Prathum is back in business. He has restocked his farm and, like most other farmers in the area, he is not strictly following the government's regulations for preventing a new outbreak of dreaded disease. He admits he is worried, but he says he has no choice. Chickens are his livelihood and raising them safely is simply too expensive. Actually, a new outbreak has already arrived. Three Thai provinces, Suphan Buri, Phitsanulok and Phichit, have confirmed bird flu cases and another 28 are under a bird flu watch. The situation is worst in Vietnam, however, where at least 13 human cases have been reported. Twelve have died, indicating this year’s strain is particularly virulent. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has also stepped up its surveillance for the disease in Cambodia. Health officials are particularly concerned about the currently holiday season – Chinese New Year here and the Lunar New Year (Tet) in Vietnam – because the transportation and sale of poultry increases significantly during this period. This makes it all the more difficult to confine the disease to the areas where it has already been found. The incubation period of the virus within a victim is normally about 10 days, so we should know very soon now if the holiday period has resulted in an increased incidence of the disease. WHO officials are most worried about the longer term, however. Agriculture in Southeast Asia has changed dramatically in the past two decades with the commercial chicken population nearly tripling. At the same time, pig production has also increased significantly. This is worrisome because pigs can carry the same strains of the flu virus that affects humans. Pigs, like humans, can also catch bird flu, so this increases the chances of the common flu virus eventually mixing with the avian flu virus – a process known as reassortment – making it easier for the virus to spread between humans. Epidemiologists say the problem here is that while humans have considerable natural resistance to the common flu, they have virtually no protection against bird flu. That explains the vastly different mortality rates for the two types of flu – about 2 percent for common flu and 80 percent or more for bird flu. It is possible that a mutated form of the virus may be somewhat less deadly, but it is still a huge concern – especially since a vaccine is not available. Tamiflu, the only drug that has proven effective against bird flu provided it is taken quickly, is still not widely available. Drug industry officials estimate it would take at least six months to produce enough for one million cases – far below the number expected if human-to-human transmission of the disease begins on a large scale. So now you know why bird flu is such a big story. Fortunately governments, health workers and scientists are not sitting still. Major poultry culls are again underway throughout the region. Last Thursday, the Thai government decided – over the protests of farmers – that three million free-range ducks would have to be killed. In China, researchers announced the development of an improved vaccine that offers both poultry and mammals up to 10 months of protection from the bird flu virus. Watch to see how soon this becomes widely available. Finally, Thai Electrical engineer Pholsak Piyatat, recently won an award for creating an air filter capable of trapping even the smallest bird flu virus. If a serious outbreak does occur, he could become a very rich man in no time.
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