LOCAL
Controlling
the uncontrollable
Economic leaders can’t
set world oil prices or control the weather, but they can help
the country cope
A view of almost dried-up Lam Takong Dam caused
by a prolonged drought in Korat, Nakhon Ratchasima province of Thailand,
17 March 2005. Thailand wrestles with one of its worst droughts
in years along with other neighbouring countries. Authorities
in Thailand, one of the rice bowls of Southeast Asia and a country
heavily dependent on agriculture, were scrambling to contend
with bone-dry conditions in 63 of Thailand's 76 provinces. Drought now affects 9.2 million people in the country.
— AFP/SATAPORN THONGMA |
You can forgive our economic
and development ministers for looking a bit haggard lately. Under normal
circumstances, the Thai economy should be headed for another year
of solid growth, but unfortunately things don’t look all that normal
any more. And to make matters worse, the obstacles to growth are largely beyond their
control.
There is not much they can
do about the soaring world oil prices and they have no
say at all in the weather that has plunged most of the country into
a prolonged
drought.
Of course, the ministers really earn their pay in difficult situations,
so it interesting to watch what they are coming up with.
For a long time the government’s
response to rising energy prices has been to absorb much of the
cost by itself through subsidies, a policy that has proven to be
exorbitantly
expensive. Consequently, the subsidy on gasoline has been virtually
eliminated
and motorists now find themselves paying record prices at the pump.
Diesel, on the other hand,
because of its widespread use in politically sensitive industries
like transport, fishing and agriculture, has remained heavily subsidised.
Even with recent price hikes, it is still about 6 baht below what
it should be. As a result, the state oil fund has been depleted by a massive 75 billion
baht since January 2004.
That is certain to change.
Diesel consumers may soon find themselves paying about 3 baht more
per litre - not quite world market prices, but a big burden
nevertheless. Already there are calls from influential groups for
special price controls. Watch to see how government leaders deal
with them.
On the drought front, the government response so far has been pretty standard.
Thus, we see convoys of water trucks heading through the
parched
countryside to supply hard-hit villagers. And, as expected, there
is a crash programme
to drill more than 4,000 artesian wells.
But, as our deputy news
editor Wasant Techawongtham warned in his column last Friday, such
quick fixes will do little to address the root ecological
causes of the water shortages. Unfortunately, he noted, the mindsets
of political leaders are notoriously short-term.
Watch for evidence that
mindset is changing. See if government leaders come up with long-term
plans for water and energy management. Reducing or eliminating fuel
subsidies is one such strategy since it forces consumers to face
that actual cost of the gasoline and diesel they use. Will there
be others?
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haggard
looking tired, often with dark skin under the eyes
obstacles
things that prevent or delay progress
soaring
rising quickly
prolonged
lasting a long time
drought
a long period with too little or no rain
subsidy
paying part of the | cost of something
exorbitantly
much too high
eliminated
removed
hikes
increases
depleted
reduced
burden
something difficult or unpleasant that must be dealt with
front
an area of activity |
convoys
long groups of vehicles
parched
extremely dry
crash programmes
projects set up and carried out in a hurry
artesian wells
holes in the group where water is forced up through natural
processes
quick fixes
short-term solutions that are often ineffective |
ecological
involving the complex relationships between environmental elements like air,
water, animal and plant life
mindsets
ways of thinking or beliefs that are often difficult to change
notoriously
well known for bad reasons
|
While residents of the troubled
provinces in Thailand’s deep South can’t be satisfied with the government’s
handling of the situation, many of them are also deeply disturbed about
the continuing violence perpetrated
by the other side in the conflict.
I wonder if moderates in
the community will eventually become powerful enough to put a stop to
the senseless killing.
Promising models do appear
to exist elsewhere. In Palestinian areas of the Middle East, for example,
the moderates now hold the upper
hand and, as a result, there are sincere efforts to come
to some kind of agreement with the Israelis. It looks like the same
thing may happen in Northern Ireland where increasing numbers of Catholic
nationalists have become fed up with their long-time “defenders”,
the Irish Republican Army (IRA).
The reasons are interesting,
but first a little history: As you may know, the island of Ireland
is divided between the predominantly
Catholic and independent Republic of Ireland in the South and the
mainly Protestant Northern Ireland, which remains part of the United
Kingdom.
There is a substantial
Catholic minority in Northern Ireland, however, and they generally
desire a unified Ireland — hence, the term “nationalist”. The Protestants,
on the other hand, are staunch “unionists” who value their ties with
Britain above all else. More than 3,000 people died during the second
half of the last century as a result of bloody clashes
between paramilitary
groups representing both sides.
The IRA led the fight on
the Catholic side and, until relatively recently, it enjoyed widespread
support among that population. But there has also been growing support
for a political solution. Here, IRA sympathisers were able to join that process through Sinn Fein,
a party commonly considered to be the political arm of the IRA.
Sinn Fein, under its leader
Gerry Adams, has been able to negotiate a decade-long ceasefire with unionist supporters. This is
a big reason for the boom in Northern Ireland’s economy, a development
that has served to enhance
the desire for a lasting piece on both sides.
In this regard, negotiations
have been taking place for a genuine power-sharing agreement between
the nationalists and the unionists. Not long ago, a final agreement
came agonisingly close
to being finalised, only to fail when the IRA rejected attempts to
have them verify that the group was disarming as it had promised to do.
This undoubtedly lost the
IRA some support among their sympathisers. What has really hurt them,
however, has been their inexplicable
and overt criminal activity
in recent months. First came a $40-million (1.54 billion baht) bank
robbery and, more recently, a brutal
killing of an innocent labourer Robert McCartney who was a life-long
Sinn Finn supporter.
His five sisters have been
leading an emotional campaign to bring the killers to justice despite
IRA warnings to let things lie. The Northern Irish public has clearly
sided with the sisters and there have been growing
calls for the IRA to disband.
There has been considerable
international pressure as well. Last Thursday, the sisters were guests
of President George Bush in Washington where American politicians
– many of them long-time nationalist supporters and even fundraisers
– have also said it was time for the IRA to go. Prominent democratic
senator Edward Kennedy, himself a Catholic of Irish descent,
made it a point not to include Gerry Adams in this year’s St Patrick’s
Day celebrations.
Could a similar rejection
of the extremist cause
happen in the Thailand’s deep South? Time will tell.
Meanwhile, moderates have
gained power in Iraq, but they don’t seem to be able to agree on how
to use it. Last week, the news parliament finally convened, but its members were unable to agree
on a government.
The big sticking
point is over demands made by the Kurdish minority for
control of the armed forces in its area and to increase the Kurdish
autonomous areas to include
the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. Thus far, the majority Shiite parties
have been resisting these demands, but since the new prime minister
requires the support of two-thirds of the MPs, some kind of compromise will probably have to be worked
out. The Kurds hold 75 seats in 275-seat parliament.
Watch to see what happens.
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moderates
peoples whose political or religious beliefs and methods are not extreme
extremists
people whose political or religious beliefs are extreme and who are often
willing to use force to get what they want
perpetrated
(of something bad) carried out; committed (a crime)
conflict
a serious disagreement
hold the
upper hand
to have an advantage; to have a more powerful position
predominately
mostly; mainly
|
substantial
important; large in amount
staunch
strong and very loyal in your opinions
clashes
short fights
paramilitary
groups that are organised like armies
sympathisers
people who support or approve a political or religious group
arm
a section of a large organisation that deals with one particular
activity
ceasefire
a time when enemies agree to stop fighting
|
enhance
to increase; to improve
agonisingly
causing strong, painful emotions
verify
to check that something is true
disarming
giving up or getting rid of weapons
inexplicable
that which cannot be explained
overt
done in an open or obvious way
brutal
very cruel and often violent
sided with
supported one
|
person or group in an argument
isband
to stop operating as a group
descent
a person’s family origins
cause
an organisation or idea that people support or fight for
sticking-point
obstacle; something which prevents progress
or agreement
autonomous
self-governing
compromise
an agreement in which both sides give up some of the things
they want
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•This lesson was prepared by Acharn Terry Fredrickson, BA
Stanford, MA (TESL) University of Minnesota, Manager/Editor of the Learning Post at the Bangkok Post and general editor of this programme.
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