PRADIT RUANGDIT

No matter how much effort Thai Rak Thai party puts into penetrating the political stronghold of its arch-rival Democrat party, southerners rarely switch loyalty from their long-standing favourite, which is likely to lose only a few House seats in the region this election.

Fifty-four House seats are available in 14 southern provinces. The Democrats won 48 seats in the 2001 election and are likely to keep about 45 now. Thai Rak Thai through its Wada faction should win about six seats.

Niphon Boonyamanee, Democrat deputy secretary-general, said although Thai Rak Thai had sent its key people to campaign in the southern provinces with the goal of winning at least one seat from each southern province, it was still unable to undermine the Democrat stronghold.

He claimed Thai Rak Thai had exercised all kinds of state power to woo votes including budget spending and sending police on door-knocking campaigns but the result would prove southerners were immune to such influences.

Withaya Kaewpradai, Democrat candidate in Nakhon Si Thammarat, said southerners knew politics well enough to accept the Democrat's 201-vote campaign to maintain a check-and-balances mechanism.

He also attributed the Democrat's robust standing in the South to the popularity of its former leader Chuan Leekpai.

Chart Thai's Nikorn Chamnong who supervised campaigns in the South admitted the Democrats were too strong to be defeated, as its vote base in the region was stable. Southerners and Democrats had a strong bonding and people were motivated to protect their party, after seeing it attacked in other regions.

Among the constituencies the Democrats have lost is constituency 2 of Phangnga province where it fielded Jurit Laksanavisit, younger brother of its deputy leader Jurin Laksanavisit. Thai Rak Thai's Kris Seefa won.

Tsunamis washed away not only lives and property in the constituency but also public interest in politics.

Key Democrats expected to lose the constituency saying they knew Mr Jurit did not work hard enough. The 201-vote campaign was also unlikely to work in an area where people were still trying to rebuild their lives.

Mr Jurit said a message had been sent recently through local authorities that voters would get no help unless they voted for a particular party. Democrats have also lost seats in the border provinces of Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat where four former MPs defected to Thai Rak Thai from the Democrats, which had to find replacements at short notice.