POST REPORTERS

Business leaders believe that Thai Rak Thai's sweeping election victory yesterday has all but eliminated any questions over political instability in the country.

While pre-election polls pointed to Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra returning to office, few predicted the sheer scope of Thai Rak Thai's victory.

While the final results will not be known for several weeks until the Election Commission rules on possible disqualifications in some precincts, Thai Rak Thai will in all likelihood be able to take office for the next four years with an overwhelming public mandate and little opposition.

Business leaders say the victory has now given the government a sense of political stability unseen in the country since the military dictatorships.

Investor confidence should increase as a result, particularly as Mr Thaksin, one of the country's wealthiest businessmen, commands wide respect among business leaders for his pro-growth policies and no-nonsense management style.

But Mr Thaksin's aggressiveness and single-mindedness, while clearly appealing to a wide swathe of the electorate, also raises alarm bells among some executives who are concerned the landslide victory will significantly weaken the principle of ``checks and balances'' within parliament.



Aat Pisanwanich, an economist at the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the victory clearly pointed to the huge public support for Thai Rak Thai's grassroots populist policies.

Among the middle class, many chose Thai Rak Thai not just out of appreciation for Mr Thaksin's leadership style and policies, but also due to a lack of any credible alternative, as the Democrat party and others failed to present a credible policy platform to counter Thai Rak Thai.

The challenge for Thai Rak Thai now is to fine-tune its policies to ensure that development programmes genuinely lead to higher household incomes.

``The question is whether these populist programmes have actually built up assets. Household debt has clearly increased. More debatable is whether people are using funds from state programmes for productive use or just buying consumer goods with them,'' Mr Aat said.

Varakorn Samakoses, the rector of Dhurakijpundit University, echoed these sentiments, saying the victory reflected public support for Thai Rak Thai's core policies, the relatively strong economy and the limited choices offered by the other parties. He said the huge victory all but assured the government of being able to serve its next four-year term without the threat of censure or removal from office.

Under the constitution, the opposition can call a censure debate against a minister if it commands at least 100 seats, and against the prime minister if it holds 200 seats. Some 125 votes out of the 500-seat lower house are also required for an impeachment.

``The sheer scope of the victory could result in a short honeymoon and tensions in the future,'' Mr Varakorn said.

``If debate cannot occur in the political arena, we may very well see conflicts outside of parliament.''

Phaphad Phodhivorakhun, the chairman of the Federation of Thai Industries, said the victory would definitely strengthen the country's political stability in the eyes of investors.

The key tasks for the government are educational reform, human resources development and strengthening the country's competitiveness for the future.

``Pumping money into the grassroots economy is only a short-term measure ... the real question is how Thai businesses will survive in an increasingly competitive market,'' he said.

Ajva Taulananda, the chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the election result would ensure that economic policies continued uninterrupted.

``What businessmen are really waiting to see is who will fill the economics team. But the Thai Rak Thai party has always boasted good teamwork, and I think the policies can be implemented regardless of who is minister,'' he said.

Kittiratt na Ranong, the president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, said that policies such as state enterprise privatisation and new infrastructure investments would gain momentum after the election.

``A government with a strong majority clearly has an advantage, as they can make decisions more quickly to tackle any problems,'' he said.

But Mr Kittiratt said a potential downside was that the government now was insulated against the threat of political censure, thus raising questions about the effectiveness of checks and balances.



Pornsil Patchrintanakul, a deputy secretary-general of the Board of Trade, said the sheer dominance of the new government would increase the difficulties in auditing and monitoring its performance by the public.

``The victory shows that the public has given its support for Thai Rak Thai's policies over its first term.

``This could lead the government to now become even more aggressive in pursuing its policies,'' he said.