Will Thaksin Shinawatra dole out more of the same or will he seize the opportunity gifted him for greatness?

By THITINAN PONGSUDHIRAK

Few should now doubt Thaksin Shinawatra is a genuine political phenomenon previously unseen in Thailand. His Thai Rak Thai party's election victory on Sunday was crushing.

He now stands at the crossroads, and it is for him to decide whether to lead the country down the path laid down in his first term, marked by profligate grassroots policies, conflicts of interest, state-perpetrated violence, suppression of dissent and virtual authoritarian rule, or to take some new path made possible by his unassailable new mandate.

This new path calls for a gentler and self-enlightened administration, characterised by tolerance, benevolence and magnanimity, potentially leaving a laudable legacy for the prime minister when the time comes for historians to set down his record.

Despite claims of vote buying, fraud and irregularities from all parties, it must be said that this election was relatively clean by Thai standards. This is for three main reasons:

First, unlike past elections which were devoid of concrete policy ideas, the parties on Sunday gave the electorate a clear choice. The policy activism of the Thaksin government was on trial. Voters either agreed or disagreed with his populist policy platform. Most votes were cast accordingly.

Relatively fewer cash rewards were needed by Thai Rak Thai candidates to convince voters.

Second, most contests in constituencies across the country were heavily lopsided. Thai Rak Thai candidates were so far out in front that vote buying was thought not to be as necessary as in the past. By the same token, candidates from other parties were so far behind in many constituencies that vote buying would have made little difference.

In fact, the results suggest that most Thai Rak Thai candidates could have stayed home in the lead-up to the election and would still have won handily. Constituencies where vote buying was rife probably featured closely fought contests.

Third, vote buying was transformed in this election _ replaced by populist policies and pledges of more handouts, subsidies and giveaways. These freebies dwarfed the vote-buying capacity of many candidates. When the national coffers are on offer and targeted, and government expenditure becomes the preferred method to secure votes, traditional cash exchanges do not figure as prominently.

Another highlight of the election results was the overwhelming support for Thai Rak Thai in the Bangkok metropolitan area. Of the 37 seats contested in the capital, Thai Rak Thai won 32, completely overturning the view that the Democrat party had regained the urban vote after it won the governor election last August.

This suggests the Democrats won the Bangkok governor race in part at least because the Thai Rak Thai fielded a weak candidate. The Bangkok results also serve as an indictment of sorts of the job performance so far of Apirak Kosayodhin, the Bangkok governor.

Having carried almost all of the constituency seats in the South, but just a handful elsewhere around the country, the Democrats have been regionalised, lacking nationwide appeal. This election has rightly prompted them to clean house and look inwards for answers.

With his awesome new mandate, Thaksin Shinawatra now has the opportunity to cultivate a positive legacy in the record books. Unlike his first term, his second round at the helm is so secure that Mr Thaksin can afford to provide more political space to his critics and the sceptics who have clamoured for greater participation and demanded greater accountability from the prime minister.

Given Mr Thaksin's rock-solid control of the political environment, Thai society will sorely need to vent its frustration and grievances. Without release valves, the pressure for dissent will simmer and reach towards boiling point. It is in Mr Thaksin's interest to allow for dissent.

He also has the chance to set aside the conflicts of interest that are seen as having marked his first term. Being in power has not been bad for his family's businesses but, in the long run, it would serve him well to set aside the acquisition of wealth during his second spell in office.

Thai Rak Thai and Mr Thaksin have been synonymous up to now. The party is practically a one-man show, excessively dependent on Mr Thaksin's views, style and preferences. There is now the chance for him to institutionalise the party. He has delegated tasks and functions but has not decentralised political power.

Without Mr Thaksin, Thai Rak Thai would surely have disintegrated during his first term. Whether it can be something greater than Mr Thaksin depends on him.

Finally, he should pay more attention to the innovative, long-term, growth-promoting policies that will decide the longevity of his rule. In Mr Thaksin's first term, the bulk of government measures were populist. A much smaller set of policies were structural and strategic, aimed at boosting longer-term competitiveness. Hence industrial upgrading and competitiveness-boosting measures should now be given more weight than easy populist freebies.

Competitiveness and cluster projects to make Thailand into a global and regional centre for the food, tourism, fashion, health-care, automobile and other industries, with an eye to emerging niche markets, should be emphasised. These are the areas that ultimately will sustain Thai economic growth.

Mr Thaksin's first term was evidently not driven by benevolence and magnanimity. He should look upon Sunday's results as a new beginning, an opportunity to think anew and act anew. It is not too late.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak is assistant professor with the Department of International Relations, Faculty of Political Science, Chulalongkorn University