Because of Chuan, southerners still believe in the Democrat Party

Story by PRADIT RUANGDIT

Thai Rak Thai faces an uphill battle in the South against the dominant Democrats, but Mahachon and Chart Thai also are trying to squeeze their way in.

The region is considered "home" for the Democrats, who hold 54 seats from the 14 provinces. The Wada faction of Thai Rak Thai won six seats in the border provinces and part of Songkhla in the last election.

Observers wonder what the effect will be of government relief for the victims of the Dec 26 tsunami in the Andaman coastal provinces. On the other hand, a year of persistent separatist violence in Yala, Pattani and Narathiwat may dampen public faith in the Wada faction and cost Thai Rak Thai those seats.

Prime Minister and Thai Rak Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra has cancelled a planned campaign rally in the South after opinion surveys indicated Thai Rak Thai's popularity was on the wane. He has devoted time canvassing for votes in the North and Northeast, which the party was predicted to take by storm.

In the 2001 general election, seats were split between the Democrats and Thai Rak Thai in all three provinces now labelled security-sensitive.

Overall, however, the Democrats continue to be the South's favourite party, even though Chuan Leekpai is no longer leader. Political analysts agree voters have not abandoned the Democrats and Mr Chuan still exudes the political charisma needed to solidify the party bastions.

Ingrained sentiment in the South has created voters who are "proud owners" of the Democrat party. But the election will test a concept admitted even by Mr Chuan that the sense of belonging has dampened since Banyat Bantadtan took over the party helm.

But the Democrats remain a strong political brand in the South. Supporters claim there is no change of heart, even though at this year's election there is little support for the "Banyat for prime minister" theme.

Supporters will vote for Democrat candidates despite the leadership rather than because of it. Voters appear to agree that if Mr Chuan is around and able to address campaign rallies, then, "Everything will be fine."

The party also hit the bull's eye when it encouraged southern voters to counter the autocracy of Prime Minister Thaksin. The appeal calls on voters to choose Democrats across the board in order to keep Thai Rak Thai in check.

Vichai Karnchanasuwan of the public administration faculty, Prince of Songkhla University, said the Democrats have been astute in getting across a new campaign strategy, while correcting weakness in leadership. A long regional dominance has provided sturdy ground support from village heads to housewives in most southern constituencies.

Niphon Boonyamanee, the Democrat deputy leader, said he was confident the party will take 49 seats on Sunday, and block the Thai Rak Thai goal of electing at least one MP from each southern province.

Thai Rak Thai seems stretched, and some believe it has assigned local state offices and grassroots leaders to aid its candidates. Officials have been seen wearing canvasser hats from the ruling party. Allegations also say that governors of provinces which are Thai Rak Thai targets have helped the ruling party.

A Democrat insider said Thai Rak Thai does not stand a chance in the South because voters dislike the practice of exerting state influence.

A campaign planner for Thawat Suraban in Trang's Constituency 2 said the party had "outed" local administration leaders who served Thai Rak Thai, and the tactic was paying off. More voters turned their backs on Thai Rak Thai following reports of alleged plots engineered by Deputy Agriculture Minister Newin Chidchob to offer Thai Rak Thai canvassers cash in exchange for votes. The scandal was brought to light and exploited by Democrat candidate Thavorn Senniam.

A Thai Rak Thai source conceded the Newin saga had fanned southern voters' dissatisfaction.

Many Thai Rak Thai candidates in the South are Democrats defectors. Southern voters are put off by the switch of allegiance, claimed Charoon Yuthong, chairman of the Songkhla-based Political Reform Assembly.

He recalled that in a recent local administration organisation poll, candidates were bickering over who was "more Democrat".

Deputy Interior Minister Sutham Saengprathum, also a Thai Rak Thai core member, said campaign rallies are easier to manage this year than during the 2001 general election. Voters realise the party can deliver on its promises, because there is little doubt it will return to power.

Mr Sutham admitted, however, that most Thai Rak Thai candidates trail their Democrat rivals. "The Democrats have an upper hand," he said, adding that in this case it was the Democrats who had grown the taproot and spread its dominance.

Thai Rak Thai is banking on the Wada faction to keep seats in Pattani, Yala and Narathiwat. But the arrest of Muslim teachers on charges of inciting separatist violence threatens that prospect. The teachers are supposedly Wada supporters.

Areepen Uttarasin, a Wada faction leader, said rival candidates have used the security problems against Thai Rak Thai. Still, he believes his party can actually win nine of the 11 seats at stake.

Apichat Thongyoo, Mahachon spokesman, said anti-Thai Rak Thai sentiment in the border provinces was high. Mahachon candidates were in the lead in Pattani's Constituencies 1 and 3, Yala's Constituency 2 and Constituencies 1 and 4 of Narathiwat.

Nikorn Chamnong, Chart Thai election director, said his party hopes to win a seat in Narathiwat Constituency 3 where Kuheng Yawor Hasan faces Nujmuddin Uma from Thai Rak Thai.

The Democrats, on the other hand, seem vulnerable in Nakhon Si Thammarat's Constituency 1. Surin Pitsuwan, the former foreign minister, is competing against a surprisingly strong Thai Rak Thai candidate, Kanop Ketchart.

The Democrats seem likely to repeat their clean sweep of Phatthalung, boosted by the Newin controversy. In neighbouring Songkhla, the party is nervous about new faces in Constituencies 5 and 8.