Voters in Isan love the popular policies and support Thaksin Shinawatra for prime minister

Story by NAUVARAT SUKSAMRAN

The Thai Rak Thai party seems certain to win the Northeast on Sunday, thanks to populist policies which effectively "trap" the voters in this generally poor region.

The Northeast always holds the key to power _ the party that wins big in Isan rules the nation. It is the biggest region, with 136 parliamentary seats at stake.

Vote-buying in the Northeast has become more sophisticated. Outright bribery still exists, but not once the campaign starts. Vote-buying now is done by policies rather than with cash handouts. Thai Rak Thai's populist promises to increase village funds have been answered by Mahachon and Democrat platforms, which propose to ease the debts caused by the village fund.

Local and central officials of the Election Commission believe that money and gifts were given to buy votes, but not after the election day became final. Political canvassers were feted at parties and given tours, as well as "financial support" for their campaign time.

Major political parties have fought hard in the Northeast, both for their parliamentary candidates and those running on the party lists. In some cases, campaigners have asked rivals to withdraw, or tried to buy candidates from rival parties. Campaign officials have fought tooth and nail for support of local administrators from the provincial level on down to village heads, often paying to bring them to political rallies.

Paibul Makavimarn, chief of the election committee in Nakhon Ratchasima, said vote-buying methods varied, but included cash, gifts and promises of future favours. Villagers received promises of debt writeoffs, new roads, allowances for the old, artesian wells, jobs and more funds for their village lending fund. Kamnan, village heads and public health volunteers all got promises of pay rises.

Election commissioner Gen Charupat Ruangsuwan pointed out that modern vote-buying approaches also involved party list votes. Bribes of 200-500 baht were common.

Academic Somkiart Pongpaibul who has researched campaign and election behaviour, said money these days is spent less on buying votes directly. Instead, politicians make populist promises to buy whole communities of voters. Such policies make villagers takers, who will wait for the distribution of various items including cows, funds and wells.

Gen Thammarak Isarangkura na Ayudhaya, Thai Rak Thai's election campaign chief for the Northeast, is confident that his party will win 120 votes out of 136 constituencies in the region _ with an error margin of 10 seats.

"The party's policies are practical and its leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, has worked seriously," he said.

He cited debt moratoriums for farmers, village funds and drug suppression as the top policies that impressed villagers, and claimed no other parties had such policies.

There are opponents but this year at least they are weak. Civil organisations, activist groups and parties affected negatively by government policies over the past four years have campaigned against Thai Rak Thai, but have received little support from the general public. The only exceptions were among the middle class in major towns.

The disunited opposition generally says genuine democracy needs a check-and-balance mechanism but the Thaksin government ignored public participation.

Decha Premdeelert of the Coordination Committee of Non-Governmental Organisations in the Northeast admitted that the anti-Thai Rak Thai campaigns would have little effect because rival parties are weak compared with Thai Rak Thai.

But the campaigns may gain momentum after the formation of the next government, and the public may be convinced to check government actions seriously.

Despite Thai Rak Thai's likely runaway victory on Sunday in the Northeast, Chart Thai remains a rival, as its leader Banharn Silpa-archa has fielded candidates who are close to villagers. He has campaigned hard for them, and Chart Thai has a chance to gain a few seats in Si Sa Ket, Ubon Ratchathani, Surin, Roi-et and Kalasin.

Chart Thai expects 10-15 Lower House seats in all from Isan, while Mahachon is upbeat about its chances for as many as five.

"Candidates from Chart Thai and Mahachon are those whom Thai Rak Thai screened out (dropped) from its candidate list. They have become rivals of Thai Rak Thai in all constituencies," Gen Thammarak said. Factions within Thai Rak Thai, and poor coordination among some candidates, might leave the door open for Chart Thai and Mahachon to win in some constituencies, he admitted.

The Democrat party has lost more seats in the Northeast in past elections as it is viewed as a political party of southerners. Besides, its candidates in the region are generally dull and their financial support from Democrat headquarters is weak.

In public, Democrat leader Banyat Bantadtan shows confidence about the chances to win seats in Isan. In fact, his party has never won more than five seats in the Northeast. The Democrats could win three to five seats on Sunday.

Observers expect the Democrats to gain more votes in the party list category from educated people, those angry at Thai Rak Thai policies and people who just want a stronger opposition. These may add to the 3,000 to 4,000 votes the Democrats are likely to win in big cities..

Gen Thammarak expects Thai Rak Thai will receive six to seven million Isan votes for party list candidates, up from over four million in 2001. Voters want Mr Thaksin to be their prime minister, he said.

Thai Rak Thai appointed key figures to run campaigns in several Isan regions. They include Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Pinij Jarusombat, Prachuab Chaiyasarn, Sanoh and Uraiwan Thienthong, Newin Chidchob and Suwat Liptapanlop.

This enhances Thai Rak Thai's chances of clean sweeps in many Isan provinces, including Nong Khai, Nong Bua Lam Phu, Udon Thani, Khon Kaen, Loei, Nakhon Phanom and Sakon Nakhon.

As Thai Rak Thai sees it, their continuing support for local people comes back as support at the polls.

Thai Rak Thai's internal analysts note that candidates have established networks of supporters at local levels _ village, tambon and district. They formed "coordination committees" among villagers and provided financial support to the groups for the past four years. Government officials serve on the committees.

The formula is fairly simple: Thai Rak Thai promises, and in exchange people vote for them.

Thai Rak Thai exploited the voters' support networks by bringing a number of them, from both the Northeast and other regions, to join a million visitors to the government's "From Grassroots to Taproots" fair at the Muang Thong Thani exhibition complex late last year.

The party also conducts systematic research on its vote-support in every region. Such actions seem to prove Thai Rak Thai boasts that it wins elections by preparing well.