Story by NATTAYA CHETCHOTIROS

The Thai Rak Thai party has won over the rich and the poor in Bangkok but faces a formidable obstacle to sweeping all 37 House seats available in the capital _ the middle-class.

Twenty-eight Thai Rak Thai candidates were elected to parliament by Bangkok voters four years ago, while the rival Democrats took nine. That victory came thanks to support from middle-class people.

A Thai Rak Thai source says the party has conducted public opinion surveys showing it can pick up at least 30 seats on Sunday. That assumes it will keep the 28 it won last time, and add two in constituencies where the party now has fielded the "right" candidates to bring down chaos on Democrat contenders.

This TRT source, however, said key party figures in Bangkok were praying Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra would not again fall victim of his own verbal blunders, mistakes that led to middle-class anger against Thai Rak Thai during the campaign for Bangkok governor last August.

The ruling party fielded no candidate in that contest, but it was an open secret Mr Thaksin and party leaders supported Pavena Hongsakula, who ran as an independent.

Mr Thaksin's cocky statement that the winner would certainly be a woman, and his high-profile inspection of Bangkok's river traffic just a few days before the polls turned voters against both Thai Rak Thai and Ms Pavena.

As a result, Democrat Apirak Kosayodhin won the election rather easily.

"Middle-class people are hard to please," said the Thai Rak Thai insider. "They are big information consumers. They know their rights and know how to exercise them to their advantage. They hardly let anything cloud their judgment." the source said.

The party analyst said if Prime Minister Thaksin and Sudarat Keyurapan, the party's Bangkok election manager can avoid statements that anger middle-class voters, Thai Rak Thai should be able to repeat its Bangkok dominance.

Thai Rak Thai, the source said, was confident of support from the upper and lower classes, as well as suburban voters.

Housewives used to admire former Democrat leader Chuan Leekpai and local top Democrat Abhisit Vejjajiva, according to the Thai Rak Thai analysis, but these women will cast ballots for the ruling party on Sunday.

During the past month, Bangkok Post reporters have been all over the capital, and also have had access to private polls and surveys conducted by Thai Rak Thai, Democrat and Chart Thai parties. This is how the Bangkok races shape up as best they can see.

Constituency 1 (Phra Nakhon and Pom Prap) _ Incumbent Thai Rak Thai MP Siri Wangboonkerd faces Democrat Jermmart Jeunglertsiri, and the Democrats like her chances to unseat Mr Siri in an inner city area where voters have to be convinced rather than bought.

Mr Siri was rated as as an under-achiever once he got to parliament. Mrs Jermmart has done many good jobs during her four-year term as a Bangkok city councillor.

Constituency 2 (Dusit) _ Krissada Sajjakul of Thai Rak Thai should comfortably defend his seat from Democrat Supaksiri Harissadangkun as the majority of voters here are soldiers who usually are loyal to the party in office.

Constituency 3 (Bang Sue) _ Seven-time MP Lalita Rirksamran, running for Thai Rak Thai, should beat Democrat contender Prapan Khunmee.

Constituency 4 (Phaya Thai and part of Ratchathewi) _ Democrat and former MP Puthipong Punnakan has an edge over Thai Rak Thai's Rachote Pisitbannakorn because of middle-class support. The wild card, however, comes in the form of 10,000 voters from military families in this district, who are likely to lean to Thai Rak Thai.

Constituency 5 (Pathum Wan and part of Ratchathewi) _ Thai Rak Thai MP Prachuab Ung-pakorn is battling to retain his seat. Veteran politician and economic spokesman Kobsak Sabhavasu, an outgoing Democrat list MP, has strong support in this inner city area. This is a tight race. Both parties predict victory and few independent observers have been brave enough to go far out on a limb for either one.

Constituency 6 (Bang Rak, Samphanthawong and part of Sathon) _ Orathai Thanajaro of Thai Rak Thai lost here twice to Democrat M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra, and faces a third loss to rookie M.L. Apimongkol Sonakul. The Democrats bet the middle-class majority will go for the big name. All 20 Democrat city and district councillors are actively canvassing here.

Constituency 7 (Yannawa and part of Sathon) _ The Democrats have held this constituency for 20 years and hope Korn Chatikavanija will extend the legacy against Thai Rak Thai's Danuporn Punnakan, a TV dramatic actor.

Mr Korn is an up-and-comer, seen as a key financial whiz in some future Democrat dream-team government. He gave up a job paying 40 million baht a year to enter politics, and this is the safest Democrat constituency in Bangkok. Thai Rak Thai has wooed Democrat canvassers in this area to defect.

Constituency 8 (Bang Kho Laem) _ Democrat Somkiat Chanthawanich has won here the past three times and has had good relations with constituents for longer than that. Chances for Pongpisut Jintasopon of Thai Rak Thai are slim.

Constituency 9 (Klong Toey) _ Sita Divari should have no problem winning re-election for Thai Rak Thai. Democrat and former DJ Thanom On-ketpol is not well known in the district.

Constituency 10 (Huay Kwang and Wattana) _ Thai Rak Thai leaders have campaigned heavily for Nahathai Thiewpai-ngam, who lost by 101 votes in the 2001 polls. That support could tip the election in her rematch with incumbent Democrat Issara Sunthornwat.

Constituency 11 (Din Daeng) _ Incumbent Peerapan Saleeratthawipak of the Democrats is a list candidate this time around, leaving new faces Yuranan Pamornmontri of Thai Rak Thai and Democrat Feungwit Anirutthewa to fight it out. Thai Rak Thai won the recent city council by-election and the Democrats are in trouble. Mr Yuranan, a famous actor and deputy government spokesman, is the familiar face.

Constituency 12 (Chatuchak ) _ Democrat Chawanon Indarakomalayasut, a first-time poll contender, seems to have no chance against incumbent Chalermchai Jinawijarana of Thai Rak Thai.

Constituency 13 (Lak Si) _ Supamart Issarapakdi won for Thai Rak Thai in 2001 and maintains the edge over Democrat Assawin Apaiwong.

Constituency 14 (Don Muang) _ This constituency features an unusual Thai Rak Thai- Chart Thai faceoff. The beautiful Janista Liewchalermwong moved from list MP to the hustings, and is popular. But don't underestimate Thai Rak Thai competitor Karun Hosakul, who commands significant support. Incumbent M.R. Damrongdit Dissakula of Thai Rak Thai is a list candidate this time.

Constituency 15 (Sai Mai) _ There seems no hope for Democrat Decha Yim-amnuay in his run against veteran Pavena Hongsakula of Thai Rak Thai.

Constituency 16 (Bang Khen) _ Incumbent Thai Rak Thai MP Anusorn Panthong likely will defeat Democrat Suriya Seuksakij.

Constituency 17 (Lat Phrao) _ Thai Rak Thai's Pramon Khunakasem, elected last time, seems unsafe from possible middle-class voters looking for a balance of power in parliament. Chusak Jeungpanich of the Democrats could benefit.

Constituency 18 (Wang Thonglang ) _ Rookie Democrat Bamrung Rattana seems unlikely to make any impact in his first outing against Thai Rak Thai MP Puwanida Khunpalin.

Constituency 19 (Bang Kapi) _ Support for Thai Rak Thai remains strong, and Pimol Srivikorn should exploit that to defeat Democrat Thiti Jayanam.

Constituency 20 (Bung Kum) _ Thai Rak Thai's Preuthichai Damrongrat leads Democrat Thiwa Ngernyuang.

Constituency 21 (Khan Na Yao and Saphan Sung) _ Muslims Natthaya Benjasiriwan of the Democrats and Ekkapoj Wong-araya of Thai Rak Thai are neck and neck. Mrs Natthaya is a former actress with a good political reputation for many years of community service. Mr Ekkapoj is a son of deputy education minister Aree Wong-araya, known for his close ties with the Chularatchamontri, the national Muslim spiritual leader.

Constituency 22 (Suan Luang and part of Prawet) _ Pattarasak Osathanukroh of Thai Rak Thai should have no problem retaining his seat despite a challenge from Democrat Seni Suwandee.

Constituency 23 (Bang Na and part of Prawet) _ Incumbent MP and deputy government spokesman Sansanee Nakpong should easily top challenger Democrat Charn Chaowisit.

Constituency 24 (Phra Khanong and Wattana) _ Thai Rak Thai MP Wattana Sengpairoh faces Democrat Suthi Panyasakulwong in a three-way race where Mahachon candidate Samita Sorasuchart carries the party's only hope of a Bangkok seat.

Thai Rak Thai holds the advantage, because of a split vote between Democrat and Mahachon supporters, who voted for Mrs Samita when she ran for the Democrats in 2001.

Constituency 25 (Nong Chok and Lat Krabang) _ Thai Rak Thai's Mongkol Kimsoonchan, an MP for more than 20 years, should win over Democrat Anan Rirkdee.

Constituency 26 (Min Buri and Khlong Samwa) _ Democrat Prapan Pussayapaibonn is no match for incumbent MP Wicharn Minchainan of Thai Rak Thai, who should win in a walk.

Constituency 27 (Thon Buri) _ Anek Hutangkhabadi of Thai Rak Thai should be able to use his incumbency and repeat his 2001 victory, and defeat Democrat Thatchapong Thammawuthipong in the process.

Constituency 28 (Khlong San) _ Wilas Chantarapithak won for the Democrats in constituency 32 in 2001 but has moved to contest Klong San to replace Pramote Sukhum, who quit politics. He faces first-time candidate Silampa Lertnuwat of Thai Rak Thai in a tight race.

Constituency 29 (Bang Phlat) _ Democrat Chakkapan Porn-nimit trails 2001 winner Pimuk Simaroj of Thai Rak Thai.

Constituency 30 (Bangkok Noi) _ Democrat spokesman Ong-art Klampaiboon is fighting with government spokesman Jakrapob Penkair. Mr Ong-art has won twice before and his reputed sincerity gives him an edge over the Thai Rak Thai contender.

Constituency 31 (Taling Chan and part of Phasi Charoen) _ Thai Rak Thai's Pitipong Temcharoen has represented the constituency for 10 years and should retain it comfortably over Democrat challenger Boonthee Panichprapai.

Constituency 32 (Bangkok Yai and part of Phasi Charoen) _ Democrat Suran Chantharapithak inherited the support previously given to Mr Wilas, his older brother. The loser in this race seems certain to be Mana Khongwuthipanya of Thai Rak Thai.

Constituency 33 (Chom Thong) _ Thai Rak Thai MP Suwat Muangsiri leads Democrat Nanthaporn Weerakunsunthorn and should win on Sunday.

Constituency 34 (Ratburana and Thung Kharu) _ Democrat Sopon Kwanbua has little chance of defeating incumbent Suwat Wannasirikul of Thai Rak Thai.

Constituency 35 (Bang Khun Thian and Bang Bon) _ This constituency has developed into a true Thai Rak Thai stronghold, so the current MP and 2001 winner Sakon Muangsiri is generally predicted to win re-election, over Democrat Sawat Champasri.

Constituency 36 (Bang Khae) _ Sutha Chansaeng of Thai Rak Thai and Democrat Kowit Tharana have fought several times over this constituency in past elections. The 2001 winner in their marathon battle was Mr Sutha, and that momentum makes him the favourite on Sunday.

Constituency 37 (Nong Khaem and Thawee Wattana) _ Sawaeng Rirkcharan of Thai Rak Thai looks likely to ride a wave of solid support into parliament, leaving Democrat Watchara Petthong a distant runner-up.