It won't be easy for TRT to become the party of the North

Story by SUPAWADEE SUSANPOOLTHONG

Thai Rak Thai success in the North in 2001 was spectacular and many credited it to the party's populist policies as well as its slogan promoting its leader as "the prime minister from the North". With 76 seats at stake apart from two in Uthai Thani, Thai Rak Thai won 54.

But despite an impressive victory, the lower part of the North is still considered a weak point for Thai Rak Thai. Of 39 seats in the lower North, rivals took 17. So, in the national polls on Sunday, the party has set its sights on winning more _ and its chances were boosted when Maj-Gen Sanan Kachornprasart quit the Democrat party to found Mahachon.

Varathep Rattanakorn, who is managing the Thai Rak Thai election campaign in the North along with Somsak Thepsuthin, claims the region as Thai Rak Thai turf, and says the party is keen on establishing itself as a party of the North during this election. Until now, no party has ever succeeded in winning the hearts of northerners.

"The Democrats have a hard time in the lower North," he said. "Their senior MPs have to work hard to retain support and can't help other candidates. Their knights are ageing and are quitting politics one by one. Those moved to the party-list are losing contact with supporters."

Thai Rak Thai, by his comparison, has more personnel and a better system. Bottom line: Thai Rak Thai expects to win more than 65 seats out of 78, minimum, including the two in Uthai Thani.

The party is confident it will be able to infiltrate many Democrat strongholds, including Constituencies 5 and 6 of Phitsanulok and Tak's Constituency 2. Thai Rak Thai believes it can take the first constituency of Kamphaeng Phet away from the Democrats and thus sweep all five of that province's parliamentary seats.

Mr Varathep has visited these key constituencies more than 10 times each since candidates were picked, and respects his opponents' strength. Moreover, Thai Rak Thai faces a new challenge after rival parties asked voters to "share votes".

"They ask the voters to vote for their candidates in the constituency system [and for Thai Rak Thai party-list members including Mr Thaksin]. So we have to tell voters that winning all 100 seats on the party list is not enough. It's not enough just to choose the prime minister. They don't need much opposition and the Democrats will surely get votes from the South," he said.

Suchon Champoonot, a veteran politician in Phitsanulok who was moved to the party-list and is managing campaigns in the lower North, said the party's campaigning is smooth, and using both "offensive" and "defensive" strategies.

In Phichit and Tak, for example, where veteran politicians have fielded their sons, Thai Rak Thai has worked to destabilise the strongholds of rival parties by fielding strong candidates and holding political activities to tie down veterans in one area.

Thai Rak Thai also uses a hard-sell approach. "Choose One Get Two Free" is a campaign tactic. They tell voters that by voting for Thai Rak Thai MPs, they will also help party-list MPs and Mr Thaksin will be the prime minister. By voting for other parties, they will get an Opposition MP _ and nothing else.

Mr Varathep said Thai Rak Thai has had to deal with problems as well. Political bickering was endemic because so many politicians defected from other parties and needed their egos stroked. The problem was solved by moving senior politicians to any of the "Three Lists," an attempt to pacify all. For example, in Nakhon Sawan, a fierce competition broke out between Chart Thai defectors led by Pinyo Noroj and a faction led by Veerakorn Khamprakob. The party "invited" Mr Veerakorn to the party list, or List 1.

Many veteran politicians made the party list in this manner. They include Mr Pinyo (15th on the list), Mr Suchon of Phitsanulok (17), Laddawan Wongsriwong of Phayao (21), Boonchu Trithong of Lampang (22) and Phitsanu Polwai of Phitsanulok (35). Mr Somsak and Mr Varathep, also veterans in the North, have been moved to so-called List 2 _ whose members are waiting for cabinet posts and other senior political positions.

Democrat veteran Paitoon Kaewthong, in charge of elections in the Lower North, voiced frustration, Cabinet ministers and key Thai Rak Thai members have been streaming through the constituency where his son, Narapat, is running. He said his canvassers have been intimidated.

"I can't move and have to help my son (in Phichit Constituency 2). I can't afford to help other candidates. Everyone is on his own," he said.

Even though Thai Rak Thai has launched an aggressive campaign in the lower North, it still faces some uphill battles in upper provinces. The party grabbed 32 seats out of 37 in 2001, but rivals like the Democrat, Chart Thai and newcomer Mahachon claim they can sniff victories in regions where Thai Rak Thai candidates merely rode the national hysteria to victory. Now, they have strong platforms and have fielded strong candidates.

Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai and Phrae are among the places to watch for opposition chances.

In Chiang Mai, Mr Thaksin's hometown, Thai Rak Thai won nine seats out of 10 last time. On Sunday, Democrats and Mahachon are fielding the same candidates who were defeated last time out.

Virun Khampilo, the Mahachon executive who supervises the upper North, believes the party has strong chances in Constituencies 6 and 7, where he has nominated former Chart Thai Boonchuay Pujinapan and Norapol Tantimontri, a relative of former New Aspiration MP Amnuay Yossuk.

The Democrat secretary-general Pradit Phattaraprasit is in the North, to replace party heavyweight Tarrin Nimmanhaeminda, who withdrew. He expects to retain the Democrat seat in Constituency 1 for Yongyuth Suwaparp, and pick up the seat in Constituency 4 where Kingkan, wife of Thawatwong na Chiang Mai, is running.

Yaowapa Wongsawat, deputy Thai Rak Thai leader and chief of elections in the North, disputes the Democrat confidence and believes Thai Rak Thai will retain all its seats. He says polls showed the party popularity rose from 86% to 91% after the recent visit by the prime minister.

In Chiang Rai, Mahachon expects to benefit from strong political support of the Chongsutthamanee family led by Mr Mongkol, a long-time rival of Thai Rak Thai's Yongyuth Tiyapairath. Mahachon figures it can win two and may be four seats in Chiang Rai. And Chart Thai leader Banharn Silapa-archa says he hopes to snatch a seat in Constituency 7.

In Phrae, one of the fiercest competitions in the entire North pits Thai Rak Thai's Anuwat Wongwan, son of powerful Narong Wongwan, against Siriwan Prassachajksattru of the Democrats in Constituency 2. The campaign has been marred by violence, by allegations of abuse of authority. With Mr Thaksin visiting and helping the party candidates several times, Phrae has become a battle of the titans.