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NEWS Think Police 'assessment' too close to the mark?
The branch was unprepared for the slew of indignation heaped on it despite its explanation that the assessment was not an opinion survey.
But the focus of attention was not so much on how the information came to be declassified as to what the assessment could foretell.
The branch has defended itself with the explanation that its job includes evaluating the competitiveness factor on a regular basis, so that proper protection could be extended to the poll candidates.
Those unhappy with the leak are most upset with the agency's prediction the People Power party (PPP) will run away with 219 seats, against only half that number for the Democrat party.
There are 480 seats at stake in the general election.
As the Special Branch was being bombarded by hostile comments, it also occurred to a lot of people that the assessment may have given us a sneak preview of what is in store for the country after Dec 23.
Could this have been less of an issue if the prediction had not placed the PPP at the top of the popularity chart and miles ahead of the Democrats?
The branch's assessment has also reinforced a worrisome premonition for those currently occupying office _ that the pendulum of power may have once again swung back in favour of the disbanded Thai Rak Thai party, now operating under the facade of the PPP.
The accuracy of the assessment is also in question as the branch has found itself in the midst of accusations of inflating or even politicising the figures. Sources of the information were reportedly grassroots leaders and local administration officials believed to be receptive to the current sentiments of voters in their areas.
But according to insiders, some respectable pollsters have finished tallying up their questionnaires and their findings more or less mirror the forecast of a comfortable win for the PPP.
The surveys, however, were being kept under wraps at the urging of high-level government insiders who do not want to see opinion polls favourable to the PPP released too close to one another.
The surveys may look rosy for the PPP for now, but it won't be smooth sailing for the party when it counts the Council for National Security, the coup-maker, among its enemies.
There could well be attempts to isolate the PPP by pushing the Democrats to one side along with several smaller parties which could together secure more than 120 seats.
Khunying Sudarat Keyuraphan, the former Thai Rak Thai deputy leader, insists the race has been fixed and the red carpet is ready to be rolled out for Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva as the next prime minister.
If that is the case, then the partnership of medium-sized parties such as Chart Thai and Puea Pandin, both of which have poured cold water on a preconceived political alliance, will have to be realised.
Medium-sized parties are usually sought after in the formation of a government because they help carry the bloc past the parliamentary majority threshold, although their vital support and bargaining prowess mean the ruling party must hand over some important ministerial portfolios to them when slicing the cake.
Nicknamed "The Darling", Chart Thai is almost always the first to be courted by the large parties rallying support to set up a government.
Now Puea Pandin is also looking for a share of the cake and it will be fascinating to watch which bloc the winning party, viewed by some as the Thai Rak Thai offshoot, will gang up with after the election.
But a successful forging of an alliance does not promise a stable government. A Democrat-led camp may not consolidate a big enough margin of a parliamentary majority to function smoothly, while the PPP, even if managing an entry into government, would likely be dogged by anti-Thaksin movements which have sprouted up in many parts of the country.
Like it or not, the opinion surveys have at least given us a taste of events to come in the next couple of months.
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