ELECTION SPECIAL

No cure-all in sight

Whichever party leads the new government there are difficult times ahead, and the new constitution offers little solace

Nattaya Chetchotiros and Saritdet Marukatat

Abhisit: Will have to contend with the demands of his coalition partners

Two days from polling day and it's still far from clear whether the Democrats or the People Power party (PPP) will get the first chance to form the next government. But one thing is sure - the election is not a magic pill that will solve all the problems plaguing the country.

When Gen Sonthi Boonyaratkalin led key military leaders to topple then-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on the night of Sept 19 last year, many of those protesting against the telecom tycoon sighed with relief in the strong belief the political turmoil would soon come to an end.

A fresh election was seen as being the final step in sealing off Mr Thaksin's chances of returning to politics.

In between the military coup and the general election on Sunday is a new constitution written, obviously, to give parliamentarians more control over the administration and end the dominating role of big parties.

The charter writers saw what had happened to the country over the five years from 2001, during the heyday of the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party.

Mr Thaksin and his TRT burgeoned with an unprecedented popularity and the voters' mandate. He chose to ignore the floor of the House of Representatives and took a firm grip on the independent organisations, by-passing the check and balance system.

And Mr Thaksin's influence is still evident, despite his spending most of his time in London after the shock takeover by the army.

His popularity is not surprising given the benefits mostly rural voters received from his populist policies, which have become an example for all the competing political parties to follow this time around.

The PPP is banking on this to put as many of its candidates as possible in the lower house.

Banharn: Courted by Samak, turned to Abhisit

Suvit: Playing his cards close to his chest

Samak: Determined to bring Thaksin back to Thailand

Army chief Gen Anupong Paojinda, one of the coup's key players, admitted last year's power play could not suddenly end Mr Thaksin's political influence. It was to "stop him from abusing his authority", he said.

The influence the deposed prime minister still wields was drilled home to the generals at the charter referendum in August. The junta's constitution, drawn up by its hand-picked writers, barely survived.

The only option available to the coup-makers and their allies now is to isolate the PPP after polling day, relying on the hope it will not repeat the TRT's feat of 2005 and win enough seats to form a single-party government.

It does seem certain the Chart Thai and Puea Pandin parties will not join the PPP, even with cabinet portfolios as their reward. Even though PPP leader and former Bangkok governor Samak Sundaravej tried to court Chart Thai leader Banharn Silpa-archa, his words seemed more a ploy to drive a wedge between Mr Banharn and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.

Puea Pandin has not made it public which way it will swing. But sources said party leader Suvit Khunkitti has made the decision and is keeping it to himself and close party members.

Either way, the coalition government will not last long, according to Chaiwat Khamchoo, a political analyst at Chulalongkorn University. A point which will rock the new government is, he said, the charter itself, which allows party members a free vote with no need to respect their party's resolution.

It will give MPs in the coalition government bargaining power when it comes to decide on crucial bills. And this will make or break the government.

"This is the product of the new constitution, which has no desire for a strong government such as the country had in the past," said Mr Chaiwat.

The question now is how the coalition government coming from the Dec 23 polls will have enough power to tackle problems. One poll after another points to economic problems as the most important issue needing a quick resolution, as well as an end to the national division between pro- and anti-Thaksin camps.

The Democrats are the undisputed choice to counter the rise of the PPP. But with more than one party in a government, any attempts to tackle problems affecting the public's purse strings, whether from high oil prices or lack of confidence to spend money, will not be easily undertaken.

Voters expect Mr Abhisit to produce on his several promises within 99 days, but he has to listen to the voices of other parties which also made many promises to their backers during their campaigns.

"The chances of the Democrat party being able to run the country smoothly are dim," said Mr Chaiwat, because it would have to rely on the support of other coalition parties. That the Democrats cannot work alone means the other parties will have the bargaining power to pursue their own interests.

Economic problems could not be resolved overnight and that could put pressure on the new government.

The voters' patience will not last long, said Mr Chaiwat. An unstable government would also worry foreign investors, who could decide to put their money elsewhere.

What lies ahead is of great concern to everybody.

But nobody could be more worried about the country than His Majesty the King. Not often does he send out the same message on more than one occasion. And he did it not twice, but three times in a single week while the people celebrated his 80th birthday early this month. Unity, His Majesty stressed, is the key to moving the country forward.

Given that politicians are fiercely contesting an election, the intended target of the King's words seems clear.

 

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