ELECTION SPECIAL

Samak's party faces defeat in zone 5

Unlikely to emulate TRT's 2005 victory

Anucha Charoenpo

The People Power party (PPP) may suffer a crushing defeat in zone 5, which comprises provinces where voters gave the Thai Rak Thai party (TRT) a victory two years ago.

In the 2005 polls, then prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra led the TRT to make a sweep of almost all MPs in the eastern provinces, except Trat.

But this time several former MPs defected to other parties after the TRT was disbanded and Mr Thaksin is among 111 executive members ordered by the Constitutional Tribunal not to engage in politics for five years.

The defectors include all eight former MPs under the Khunpluem family in Chon Buri who have joined Chart Thai.

In Sa Kaeo, all three former MPs of Sanoh Thienthong's faction have moved with him to Pracharaj and all three former MPs of Chanthaburi have defected to the Democrats and Matchimathipataya.

Nakhon Ratchasima, the only northeastern province, is included in this cluster, and it was the stronghold of the now-dissolved Chart Pattana party for almost 20 years before its MPs under Suwat Liptapanlop and Chamlong Krutkhunthod defected to the TRT in 2005 and swept almost all the MP seats.

Now all the former MPs have been divided between Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, the PPP and Puea Pandin.

"I think party defections of former MPs is the most important factor making the nominee of TRT - the PPP - unable to win an overwhelming majority of parliamentary seats in this eastern zone as it did before," said Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political scientist at Burapha University in Chon Buri, who monitors politics in the East.

"Most voters here are still loyal to old politicians with whom they are familiar. They don't care about the party names or party leaders," he added.

Mr Olarn still believes 50 constituency seats in this zone must be shared by other parties.

The Democrats are seen to be ones who could snatch most of the parliamentary seats from the PPP in some provinces because of a strong base of supporters, according to Mr Olarn.

However, he was certain that the Democrats' People's Agenda was not a key factor influencing most voters.

"Most voters in this zone are not impressed with the populist policies of any political parties. They are bored with them as they believe they are difficult to implement," he said.

For the proportional representation system, every party has an equal chance of winning at least one seat from the party-list system, except for Pracharaj leader Mr Sanoh.

Political watchers say that there was no guarantee Mr Sanoh would get 10% of the voter turnout to be selected because he was only popular in his home province of Sa Kaeo but not in others with larger populations like Nakhon Ratchasima, Pathum Thani and Chon Buri.

"Political parties with their bases in big provinces with a large number of voters will gain a considerable advantage from this party-list system," said Suthi Atchasai, coordinator of the Rayong-based Eastern Community Network.

Mr Suthi said about 16 community networks with around 20,000 people would throw their support behind the Democrats in the proportional representation system because of its candidates led by ex-senator Kraisak Choonhavan and former lecturer at Nakhon Ratchasima Rajabhat University Somkiat Pongpanich.

"We think the two, if elected, will be our true representatives to help solve the people's problems ignored by most businessmen-turned-politicians," he said.

 

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