ELECTION SPECIAL

The battle for Bangkok

Democrats fight swing to PPP, court the well-educated, middle-class vote

Nattaya Chetchotiros

The high turnout of voters last weekend for advance voting in Bang Khen and other district offices in Bangkok has given election officials a boost. The Election Commission is hoping for at least a 70% overall voter turnout.

Bangkok voters are a dominant force, always commanding the attention of political parties during an election.

A clear mandate from people in the nation's capital greatly improves the chances of an elected government staying in office.

That is the reason why zone 6, which includes the capital, is the key focus in Sunday's election.

The contest between the Democrats and the People Power party (PPP) could be a major factor in the formation of the next government.

The Thai Rak Thai party (TRT) subscribed to the notion that in politics people in the Northeast, the region with the most seats, form a government, whereas Bangkok residents topple the government.

This can be seen from the experience of Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, who rose to power in 1996 with his New Aspiration party firmly in control of the Northeast, augmented by seats in other regions.

Gen Chavalit was forced to step down after the financial crisis in 1997, bowing to mounting pressure from protesters in Bangkok led by middle class, white-collar workers in the business district of Silom. They were frustrated over its failure to deal with the problems that eventually led to the economic meltdown in the region.

Thaksin Shinawatra followed not long after, with his Thai Rak Thai party winning in 2001 and 2005 due to overwhelming support in the Northeast. He also won 28 seats in Bangkok.

The first Thaksin administration made history. It was the first elected government to complete a full four-year term in office, partly because of the huge support from Bangkok residents.

In the 2005 general election, TRT repeated its success in the Northeast and won 32 House seats in Bangkok, leaving the Democrats with only four.

However, Bangkok residents can be very erratic and quickly became disillusioned with the second Thaksin government.

Its alleged irregularities were exposed, sparking daily street protests in Bangkok and the unrest culminated in the bloodless coup by the military on Sept 19 last year that removed prime minister Thaksin.

But Democrat election campaign director Korbsak Sabhavasu thinks the party can get back into power even without a huge support base in the Northeast.

Bangkok voters are well educated and their support for the Democrats on Sunday would give the party a mandate to form a government, he said, even though the Democrats might not win the overall contest.

Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva presents himself as a 'young-blood' leader with a clean image, trying to reach out to a wider public with his "people's agenda."

Recently, the party rolled out its "99-day" policy - promising to implement programmes such as free education and a reduction in fuel prices within 99 days if it heads the government.

Early in the race to parliament, the Democrat party got off to a flying start and was tipped as the strong favourite in Bangkok.

However, recent polls show the party began losing momentum about the halfway mark, while the PPP began gaining ground and is likely to overtake the Democrats in the dash to the winning post.

Samphan Lertnuwat, director of the PPP's election campaign in the capital, predicted that his party would win at least 25 seats in Bangkok.

The Democrats would win 11 seats at the most, he intoned.

Udomdet Rattasathien, who oversees the People Power campaign in Nonthaburi, and Pracha Prasobdee, who is in charge of Samut Prakan, were confident the PPP will dominate the two provinces, which are in the same cluster as Bangkok.

But Mr Korbsak remains optimistic, saying the level of support claimed by the PPP will surely prove overblown when the final tally is known.

He pins his hopes on a 61% swing to the Democrats by the large number of people in Bangkok who remained undecided earlier this week.

Mr Korbsak said he did not give credence to late opinion polls putting the People Power party in the lead over the Democrats in Bangkok.

The opinion surveys only reflected the feelings of people at the grassroots levels, he said.

They did not represent the inclinations of the all-important middle- and upper-class vote in Bangkok.

 

1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10 11  12  13  14