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ELECTION SPECIAL Five provinces vital to chances of forming next government
The country's oldest political party hopes to make inroads in Samut Sakhon, Ratchaburi, Kanchanaburi, Phetchaburi and Saraburi. These areas are close to Bangkok where it believes uncommitted and informed voters will swing to the party. A good performance here matters a lot if the party is Sto have any hope of forming a coalition to lead the next government. The Democrats have to compete with former Thai Rak Thai (TRT) MPs running under the banner of the People Power (PPP), Matchimathipataya and Chart Thai parties. Democrat deputy leader Alongkorn Pollabutr, who oversees the campaign in the area, said the party has two points in its favour - it is popular in these provinces and the voters have broad access to information. The party has pinned its hopes on people who abstained from voting in the later-annulled 2006 poll in protest against alleged corruption in the Thaksin government, before the military coup. Well-informed and uncommitted voters, especially in urban areas, could swing the odds in the party's favour, he said. The party believes its support in these provinces is much stronger than it was in the 2005 general election, when TRT won a massive majority, and so had campaigned hard, emphasising its honesty as a selling point, he said.
The party is confident of winning more seats in each of the five provinces. Chaovalit Kongkaow, a political scientist at Phetchaburi Rajabhat University, said it is possible the Democrats will sweep all three seats Phetchaburi province this time. Those who cast a "no vote" in 2006 seemed not to have changed their thinking, he said. But while the Democrats can put their hopes on the growing support for the party, a key factor in these provinces will be the popularity of individual candidates, said Sirima Charoenma, a democracy advocate in Kanchanaburi. "Changes in a province like Kanchanaburi can be expected, but the outcome remains unpredictable," she said. While the Democrats are eyeing gains ion the area, the PPP is not expecting to do better than its predecessor, the TRT. The TRT took all five House seats in Ratchaburi in 2005. But former TRT MP Boonlue Presertsopha, now with the PPP, said he thought People Power could win only two seats this time. Local political observers said the fact that a number of former TRT MPs had not joined the PPP and were now running under other party banners did not bode well for the PPP. But the Democrats could also find it hard going, since the stakes would be shared with candidates from the Machimathipataya and Chart Thai parties. Despite government campaign, vote buying and political canvassing still exist and will likely have a strong bearing on the election outcomes in many areas of these five provinces. What makes the elections in these provinces more competitive and less predictable this time is that some former senators and provincial councillors are also running, seeking election under different parties. This provides them with a better chance of winning, they said. Changes are unlikely in the other provinces, which are party strongholds, they added. The Democrats should win all the seats in Prachuap Khiri Khan, Chumphon and Ranong and in the central province of Samut Songkhram. The PPP should have no problems in winning the most seats in Nakhon Pathom, while Chart Thai is likely to hold sway in Suphan Buri and its neighbouring provinces, as it always does. Chaowarin Latthasaksiri, a PPP list candidate, said it seemed likely the three big parties - PPP, Democrats and Chart Thai - would get about three seats each from the 10 proportional representation seats in this zone, based on their placement of well-known candidates in the top three.
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