ELECTION SPECIAL

Unfamiliar battles in far South

Democrats struggle to hold some seats

Wassana Nanuam

The Democrat party's dominance in the upper South is expected to continue, but its fortunes could fade in the southernmost provinces where the likely outcome in about half the 12 seats in Narathiwat, Pattani and Yala is far from clear.

The Democrat strategy for upper zone 8, comprising nine provinces, is unchanged from the last election, hinging on the popularity of chief adviser and former prime minister Chuan Leekpai, a Trang native. The party's billboards feature either stand-alone pictures of Mr Chuan or pictures of both Mr Chuan and current leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.

But analysts say the Democrat party is likely to lose again in Phangnga, just as it lost out to Thai Rak Thai in 2005.

Nevertheless, Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thaugsuban affirmed the party is confident of overall victory in the upper South.

In the southernmost provinces, the party could lose ground to Chart Thai, Puea Pandin and the People Power party (PPP), according to analysts.

In 2005, the party won 11 of the 12 seats in the troubled provinces bordering Malaysia. The other seat went to a candidate from Chart Thai party, Kuheng Yaworhasan, in Narathiwat.

The Wadah group, running as TRT candidates at the time, lost in all constituencies.

The strong Democrat showing in 2005 was due to anti-Thaksin sentiment in the deep South over his government's handling of the unrest.

This time, the Democrats have focused on Narathiwat where the party's candidates, and those from its ally Chart Thai, stand good chances of winning.

In Yala, the Democrats have to compete with the Wadah faction, which is running under the PPP banner this time.

Yala is a stronghold of Wadah faction leader Wan Muhamad Nor Matha. But as one of the 111 former TRT executives banned from politics, Mr Wan Nor cannot run for parliament.

Analysts said his absence will affect the faction, which will not be able to sweep the seats in Yala. The vote will probably be split between the Wadah PPP candidates, the Democrats, Matchimathipataya, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana and the Puea Pandin party, they said.

In Pattani, the return of veteran former senator and former MP Den Tohmeena, 73, as a Wadah candidate is a significant threat to the Democrats, but Mr Den's support in constituency 1 cannot match Democrat candidates Anwar Salae and Isma-al Ben-ibroheem.

In constituency 2, Wadah seems to have the stronger candidates with the exception of former senator Nimukta Waba from Puea Pandin.

Areepen Uttarasin, a Wadah leader and a PPP party-list candidate for zone 8, claimed the faction could win at least five seats in Yala and Pattani.

Worawit Baru, deputy rector of Prince of Songkla University in Pattani said locals were likely to vote for individual candidates, not their parties

 

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