Let the speculation begin | Bangkok Post: learning

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The House dissolution takes effect today and already people are speculating on the outcome, saying Puea Thai could be the winner and still be in the opposition.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva gives a victory sign as he leaves Government House hours before giving a televised national address to announce the dissolution of the House last night. PATTANAPONG HIRUNARD

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A big win is crucial

ANALYSIS: A Pheu Thai victory does not guarantee a Pheu Thai government
 
Nattaya Chetchotiros

Without a landslide victory, Pheu Thai has little chance of forming the next government even if it wins the July 3 election.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva officially announced the election date and House dissolution via state television last night after a royal decree to dissolve the House of representatives was endorsed by His Majesty the King.

It was widely believed by several parties that the opposition Pheu Thai would win the election with the highest number of MP seats among contenders.

However, questions remain as to whether it can successfully form the next government.

What looks to stand in Pheu Thai's way is a strong alliance between the Democrat and Bhumjaithai parties, a stated refusal by the opposition to work with them, and the expected close-fought nature of the poll.

Pheu Thai ruling out any affiliation with the current coalition means it will have to join hands with smaller parties which have a smaller chance of winning.

Moreover, the next election is expected to be a very close race between Pheu Thai and the Democrats in both the party list and constituency systems.

In the party list system, Pheu Thai is not likely to win by a margin of more than five seats. In the constituency system, the margin is expected to be between 20 and 30 House seats.

The Democrats, with support from the Bhumjaithai Party, which is expected to win about 50 House seats, therefore has a better chance of forming the next administration.

Early opinion polls and assessments from a number of government agencies have indicated no party will win as many as 200 seats in the next polls.

In the previous election, the now-defunct People Power Party claimed 68 seats more than the Democrats and formed two governments, under Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat.

It won 34 seats from the party list and 190 seats in the constituency system, while the Democrats won 33 seats in the party list and 132 seats in the constituency system.

The number of MPs in the Pheu Thai Party has dwindled in recent years and now stands at 188. The Democrat Party has gained five more House seats.

Noppadon Kannika, director of the Abac Poll, said Tuesday it is too early to predict the outcome of the constituency system vote.

He said there are a lot of variables that render speculation on the poll result futile.

"But the party list race between the Democrats and the Pheu Thai Party is very close. The winner will lead by no more than five seats," he said.

Mr Abhisit addressed the nation about the House dissolution last night.

"I believe the House dissolution today marks a new beginning for everyone," Mr Abhisit said.

"It moves the country forward in strides to solve problems for every person and their family.

Early in the day, the Constitution Court ruled that the three organic laws governing the election are in compliance with the constitution, clearing any legal hurdles that might have delayed the polls.

address – a formal speech  คำปราศรัย
dissolution of the House –formally ending the House of Representatives, usually leading to a general election การยุบสภา
crucial – extremely important because it effects the result of something สำคัญยิ่ง
guarantee – to be certain that something will happen รับรอง, รับประกัน
landslide – a situation in which a person or political party wins an election by a very large margin ถล่มทลาย
state – government รัฐบาล
decree – an official decision or order made by a leader or government พระราชกฤษฎีกา
endorsed – officially approved รับรอง
opposition – of a political party that is not part of the government or a group which is against the government ฝ่ายค้าน  ผู้ต่อต้าน
contender – someone or something who competes with other people or things for a prize คู่ต่อสู้, คู่แข่ง
alliance – a coalition; an arrangement to work together พันธมิตร
stated – said firmly and clearly in public
refusal – an act of saying or showing that you will not do, give or accept something  คำปฏิเสธ, การปฏิเสธ
nature – the basic quality of feature of something ลักษณะที่แท้จริงของสิ่งต่างๆ, ธรรมชาติ
poll – an election การเลือกตั้ง
rule out – to stop considering something as a possibility ประกาศว่าเป็นสิ่งที่เป็นไปไม่ได้
affiliation – a connection with a political party or religion, or with a larger organisation การผูกพัน
current – of the present time ปัจจุบัน
coalition – a temporary union of different political parties that agree to form a government together  พรรคร่วมรัฐบาล
party list (proportional representation) system – a system that gives each party in an election a number of seats in relation to the number of votes its candidates receive ระบบสัดส่วน, ระบบปาร์ตี้ลิสต์
constituency – a district that elects its own representative to parliament เขตเลือกตั้ง
margin – the amount by which a competition is won จำนวนที่เกิน, จำนวนคะแนน
administration – the government of a country รัฐบาล
poll – an occasion when a lot of people are asked about what they feel about something – การสำรวจความคิดเห็น
assessment – the process of making a judgment or forming an opinion, after considering something or someone carefully การประเมิณสถานการณ์
indicate – to show that something is true, exists or will happen แสดง, ทำให้รู้
defunct – no longer existing, operating or being used ถูกยุบ, หยุดทำงาน
dwindle – to become gradually less or smaller over a period of time ลดลงไปทีละน้อย
predict – to say that an event or action will happen in the future, especially as a result of knowledge or experience คาดการณ์ว่า พยากรณ์จากสถิติว่า
outcome – the results of an election ผลการเลือกตั้ง
variable – something that can change and affect the result of a situation ตัวแปร, ซึ่งเปลี่ยนแปลงได้
render – to make or cause to be ทำให้
speculation – ideas or discussion about what might happen or has happened or why something has happened without having complete information การคาดการณ์
futile – having no effect or achieving nothing; unsuccessful เปล่าประโยชน์  
nation – all the people in a country คนในประเทศ, ประเทศ
stride – walking with long steps in a particular direction การเดินก้าวยาวๆ
rule – (of a court or other group with similar authority) to make and announce a decision ตัดสิน, พิพากษา, ชี้ขาด
organic laws – laws required by the constitution; basic laws setting out the specific rules for carrying out a particular activity กฎหมายประกอบรัฐธรรมนูญ; ตัวบทกฎหมาย กฎหมายแม่บท
compliance – the practice of obeying a law, rule, or request การยอมทำตาม
legal – relating to the law or lawyers เกี่ยวกับกฎหมาย
hurdle – an obstacle; a problem that you must solve before you can do something successfully อุปสรรค
delay – to make something happen at a later time than originally planned or expected เลื่อน

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