Bangkok Post : What will become of Thailand's future?

Review

Since the September 19, 2006 coup, numerous discussions appeared in various forms - web boards, magazines, blogs, books and seminars - trying to explain why the 18th putsch took place and what's next for Thailand.

Until now, the beginning of this historic and significant transition has yet to take on its full shape. Key issues mentioned a few years ago remain valid arguments into the Gregorian calendar year: The Thaksin factor, the future of political parties, the role of the monarchy and its related apparatus of the privy council, the revelation of the mass people's movements and the face of the charter amendment, to name but a few.

The following three books were chosen for review not because they are the most factual, comprehensive and lively literature. In fact, a few other books that capture more on the depths about Thai politics, including those of Pasuk Phongpaichit, Chris Baker and Nick Nostitz, have previously appeared in the review columns in the 'Outlook' section.

Thai Democracy in Crisis: 27 Truths by Chaturon Chaisang reflects the views from the insider's perspective, while Khon Tula Tai Laeo ("The Octoberists Have Died") by Khaen Sarika, also another inside-out viewpoint, provides the background of the leftist movers and shakers in both the yellow and red camps.

Divided Over Thaksin: Thailand's Coup and Problematic Transition edited by John Funston directly challenges Thai society to be mindful of the uncharted political waters.

The 120-page Khon Tula Tai Laeo book was written (in Thai) by one of the "Generation" members with a cute caricature book cover and sincere portrayal of what, how and why friends of the author have chosen different political paths despite sharing similar ideologies or experiences from the "jungle".

Khaen Sarika refers to the "Thaksin Crisis" and the coup as the most dividing factor for activists, whose political lives have been shaped by the student-led movement on October 14, 1973 and the October 6, 1976 incident.

"Some of the leftist activists are now chanting, 'Long Live Thaksin', while the others cheer along or become part of the coup-installed government. What are the roots of their minds, and whether these brothers in arms would be joining or listening to one another in the future remains to be seen," said Khaen in the preface of his book.

Among the polarised or contested lives in Khaen's book includes Dr Weng Tojirakarn, Thirayuth Boonmi, Thongchai Winichakul, Phumtham Wechayachai, Dr Poldet Pinprateep and Dr Prommin Lertsuriyadet.

The very core debate on whether the people and the socialist movements should take sides with "Thaksin & Co" - considered the meteoric emerging capitalist group - or the conservative alliance of autocratic and military forces remains the issue closer to the hearts of many activists.

Thai Democracy in Crisis: 27 Truths also devotes two small chapters on the "October People/Generation" - the term used to refer to the group of people who took part in the October incidents and who still play a role in the social-political movement.

The author laments that the "October Spirit" has perhaps died as some members of the Generation have cooperated with the armed forces that ousted an elected government and turned a country into an undemocratic regime.

Chaturon's book, published in both Thai and English versions, was originally intended to be released during the National Book Week in April last year, but the editing process and other technical problems delayed the book launch for another eight months.

The 267-page 27 Truths by Chaturon, who since the 2007 ban of his political right has set up the Institute of Democratisation Studies, should be lauded for its good attempt at self-criticism and soul-searching by an individual who has been involved with the key problematic political player in Thailand's contemporary history: Thaksin Shinawatra.

Despite the book's untimely launch, the exclusion of an analysis of the post-Songkran riot in Pattaya, the military stand-off in the Bangkok aftermath and their impact on the Red Shirt group, as well as the omission of certain core problems in the Thaksin administration including its endemic and systematic corruption and the highly-criticised human rights abuses, this pocketbook is worth a read.

Chaturon offers a relatively fair analysis of the Peoples' Alliance for Democracy (PAD) or the Yellow Shirts and the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) or the Red Shirts, and also touches on the unspoken but clearly acknowledged phenomena such as the biased views of the mainstream media and intellectuals as well as such taboo subjects as the judicial reform and the role of HM the King's advisers.

He has challenged that a probe should be set up to clear allegations on members of the Privy Council charged of being behind the coup and Thaksin's assassination plot. Chaturon also urged that the judiciaries should be free from politics and that the military, private sector, mass media and political parties be "educated" of the democratic values and practices to uphold the rule of law.

While less critical of Thaksin's abuse of power, Chaturon referred to other problems of the business tycoon-turned-politician, namely Thaksin's one-man show style that led to little or no effort toward institutionalising democratic forces.

The end of Thaksin's power came, Chaturon said, due to his poor decision to dissolve the House of Representatives while the government had control of more than half of the entire House.

As a politician himself, Chaturon saw how the lack of qualified political personnel was important. Both the court ban and the 2007 Constitution have truly weakened the development of the political party institution, he noted.

While Chaturon, who was also a member of the much-praised but now defunct National Reconciliation Commission, did not mention the unrest in the South as a factor of Thaksin's fall; the Divided Over Thaksin book has a lot to explain on this issue.

Four of the 13 chapters in the book explain Thaksin's inability to contain the armed conflicts in the predominantly Malay-ethnic and Muslim provinces in the South, which undermined Thaksin's authority as leader of Thailand.

However, the articles did not provide a strong link between the Thaksin issue and the violent situation in the deep South. It would have been more relevant if they were annexed to another book about the southern problem.

The 203-page book was compiled, through editing hands of a visiting fellow of the Australian National University (ANU), from presentations at the annual ANU National Thai Studies Centre conference held in 2006 and 2007.

The book reflects the very factual situation in Thailand then and as it is now; "Rather than returning to democracy as coup leaders had promised, Thai society remained polarised between pro-Thaksin forces on the one hand and a more diverse coalition of anti-Thaksin forces ranging from members of Bangkok's middle class who opposed Thaksin's alleged corruption, blatant disregard for media freedom, human rights and the rule of law, supporters of the PAD, Thailand's oldest political party - the Democrats, groups close to the royal family and the military."

Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies has continuously contributed to the quest for more understanding about Thai politics. This book, under its production arm, is yet another account to explain why Thailand has reached the above transition.

Assoc Prof Chairat Charoensin-o-larn from Thammasat University's Faculty of Political Science, said that even a year after the coup, Thai leaders remain uncertain as to how to deal with the Thaksin legacy.

In fact, three years and four months since the coup, the current government is still struggling to free the country from the former prime minister's influence and his stronghold networks.

Another accurate prediction into today from Chairat: "The military still regards itself as the guardian of democracy, and will be able to use this constitution - together with the new Internal Security Bill passed in December 2007 - to ensure the reimposition of a security state and bureaucratic polity."

An interesting discussion in the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (Iseas) book is the post-coup economy. The coup and the post-coup government were detrimental to economic growth and a threat to the nation's long-term future, said Assoc Prof Bhanupong Nidhiprabha of Thammasat University's Faculty of Economics.

While others named it the "silken coup", the September coup destroyed the confidence of the business sector and consumers more than the earlier coups, said Dr Bhanupong.

If a new book was launched now, it might also be said that regular and widespread demonstrations sponsored by pro-Thaksin groups have also dented the fragile confidence of the private sectors in light of the financial crisis recovery.

Glen Robinson, executive director of the Asean Focus Group, noted the attempt to replace Thaksin's populism with the King's proposal for a "sufficiency economy" has been met with little enthusiasm.

And that is why the coalition parties in the present Democrat-led government have competed in proposing populist policies, and are now hanging banners everywhere to remind the voters for this year's upcoming election that "we've already given you what we've promised (so now it's your turn to give us your vote)".

Readers might feel it's a bore to read old accounts about the first year of the post-coup period, but it's a good reminder of where and why we are here today.