Whether walking into an air-conditioned supermarket or taking a stroll through a fresh market, there is almost no sign of food shortage anywhere in Thailand. But in little more than a generation from now, food might become harder to come by in many countries — including Thailand.
The reasons for this grim forecast are troubling.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), there is presently a sufficient amount of food in the world. However, although there is enough food to feed everyone, produce is not distributed equally due to a number of factors, including a lack of social equity and justice.
But, while one in nine people in the world is nutritionally hungry, the situation is likely to become far worse by 2050, when the UN predicts there will be well over 9 billion people sharing the Earth. Cities will continue to expand and most of the population growth will occur in developing countries.
"We need to be aware of several constraints and uncertainties that could affect our food security in the years to come," says Hiroyuki Konuma, FAO's assistant director-general and regional representative. "By 2050, the world will need to increase food production by some 60% on average, and nearly 80% in developing countries. But that will be very hard to do since agricultural land is almost fully exploited and there is almost no expansion possible in Asia.
"Water is also a major issue. Up to 70% of available water is diverted to agricultural production processes, but it is becoming scarcer, especially in places where water is most needed.
"As competition for water resources increases, there will be scarcity of water to feed into the agricultural sector and that will surely affect food production. Other factors affecting food security include climate change; competing use of land and water between food and bioenergy production; and natural disasters and diseases, which may affect both animals and humans."
Hilltribe people pick strawberries in Aungban, Myanmar.
As the economy has grown in Thailand and other middle-income countries, many people have changed their eating habits. This has led to an increased demand for foods such as meat, dairy products, fish and other commodities. It has also led to greater consumption of processed foods. The bottom line, however, is we are eating more than before, which will lead to a future of less available food.
"In the 1970s, calorie consumption per day was around 2,370 kcal. In 2007, calorie intake increased to 2,770 kcal per person per day," says Konuma. "FAO predicts that by 2050 — when we need to be producing so much more food — the average calorie demand will be more than 3,000 kcal per person per day."
The increased food intake has also coincided with a spike in obesity. While hunger is still chronic, there are more than 2 billion people diagnosed as overweight or obese, which can lead to non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, high-blood pressure and strokes. The result is higher public healthcare costs for people who have too much at the expense of people who have so little they go hungry.
The paradox of reducing hunger with less arable land and a growing population may seem complex or even hopeless. But there are indications that all is not lost.
"Asia and the Pacific, as a whole, managed to meet the Millennium Development Goal of reducing the proportion of hunger by half since 1990. That is a real achievement," says Konuma. "Thailand's own reduction was extraordinary, a cut of nearly 79% by the 2015 MDG deadline."
However, despite the gains, 7.4% of the Thai population remains undernourished and there is more that can be done for them, Konuma points out, adding he hopes that Thailand will join the UN secretary-general's Zero Hunger Challenge at a national level. Konuma adds that without concentrating our efforts toward zero hunger and real equitable growth, a just society and sustainable development will be difficult to achieve. It's something he encourages all countries to do.
"We are living in a world of so much individualism, with huge inequality and social divide, and facing the double burden of malnutrition. Fundamental human rights, like the 'right to food', are often ignored.
"Why can't we share our excess food with those suffering from hunger? Why can't we help each other?" Konuma questions.
Hiroyuki Konuma.
While policymakers must take the lead, reducing food losses and waste are also practical to our daily lives. Increasingly, they are central to discussions on greater food security and sustainable development.
Some 1.3 billion tonnes (or 30% of total food production) valued at US$1 trillion is wasted globally each year, mainly due to consumption, distribution, processing, post-harvest and primary production losses. Such a staggering amount is more than four times what would be needed to solve the world's hunger challenge. Just a quarter of the food waste is enough to feed millions of people facing hunger, children in particular.
In Thailand, poor planning, lack of storage facilities, weak transportation systems, crop disease and parasites are the main causes of food being lost before it reaches consumers. There is also a growing problem of waste on the part of supermarkets, restaurants and consumers. Too much is thrown away at restaurants and at a household level.
In Thailand, 30% of the food produced is lost during transportation from farm to market. On average, at a consumer level, 5% of food bought at each household is wasted, simply because buyers forget to cook it or eat it. Some foods are also improperly stored, says Rosa Rolle, senior Agro-Industries and Post-Harvest officer at FAO in Bangkok.
"More effort is needed to raise global awareness of the critical issue of food loss and particularly post-harvest losses, as well as food waste, which is increasing," says Rolle.
FAO, the Ministry of Agriculture and Co-operatives and corporate partners recently launched the National Save Food Campaign in Thailand to raise awareness and change bad habits all along the value chain, from farm to market to consumer.
Individual consumers need to change their own behaviour that leads to food waste. The FAO expert urges general consumers to plan their meals more carefully and should think more before ordering or purchasing and think again before throwing food away when it is still edible. Rolle says simple things like making shopping lists and avoiding impulsive food purchases, as well as staying alert to "marketing tricks that lead you to buy more food than you need".
FAO believes it is still possible to increase global food production by 60% to meet increasing demand during the coming 30 to 40 years if we harness science and technology for productivity growth from existing agricultural lands and if we unite and work together for the benefit of each other to meet the challenges ahead.
Amphawa Floating Market in Samut Songkram, Thailand.
