Bangkok Post

The Research Centre at the Bangkok University, or Bangkok Poll, conducted a survey on “Opportunity and Limitation of Thailand amid Euro Debt Crisis” on 40 economists at leading state and private economic agencies, from June 27 to July 3.

The pollsters said 41.9 per cent  agreed the search for new markets was important.

A total of 25.8 per cent of the respondents said the eurozone crisis should be used as a lesson for the government in management of debt, financial and populist policies.

Some 37.5 per cent of them believed political conflict is a key limitation that could make the impact more severe than it needs to be; 20.9 per cent said high production costs, low productivity and limitation in infrastructure was another factor that lowered trade competitiveness. This would worsen the negative impact of the eurozone crisis.

Asked about the short-term (now to next year) impact on Thailand, 88.9 per cent of the economists said exports would go down, particularly gems and ornamentation, textiles and other luxury goods; 25 per cent said the exchange rate and the baht's value would fluctuate.

For the long-run impact (next two-three years), 33.3 per cent of them said the exports would drop further, more trade barriers would be raised by the importing countries; 18.2 per cent said public debt would increase as a result of the government’s measures to boost the economy and investment by Thai and foreign businesses would also drop.

The surveyed economists suggested the government focus on spending effectiveness, cut expenditure on populist policies and set priorities for its investment projects.

They also wanted the government to increase domestic purchasing power and expand domestic markets to replace overseas markets.

They said as the eurozone debt crisis is likely to be prolonged, the government should prepare plans for the worst scenario.