Bangkok Post

The pollster surveyed 73 economists in 35 leading economic agencies, seeking their opinions on “2013 Economic Outlook Projection” from Nov 6-13.

Bangkok Poll reported that most of the surveyed economists believed the central bank’s monetary policy committee would cut the repurchase rate to 2.50% next year, from the current 2.75%.

They expected an average value of the Thai baht at 30.68 baht to the US dollar next year..

The economists expected exports to expand by 6.8% in 2013, and that the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) main index would rally up to the 1,400 points level next year, said the pollster.

At 11am today, the SET index was up 1.74 points to stand at 1,275.76 points.

Some 79.5% of the respondents said the main risk factor that could derail economic growth next year was the global economic slowdown, 69.9% of them pointed to the fragile US economy and eurozone debt crisis, 64.4% said political problems, protests and the government’s instability.

According to Bangkok Poll, the economists suggested the government should;

1) Tune-down its populist policies, particularly the rice pledging scheme, to curb possible problems of heavy public debt in the future.
2) Focus on investing in infrastructure development and flood control projects, in projects to get the country ready for the debut of the Asean Economic Community in 2015 and to strengthen its trade competitiveness, and
3) Come up with relaxed monetary policy, measures to control a possible problem of a bubble in the property development sector and plan to deal with the impact of the global economic crisis in the event that the situation gets worst.