Bangkok Post

What is the situation?

About 20 billion cubic metres has fallen this rainy season, and [by Wednesday] the government was able to drain about 8 billion cubic metres into the sea.

At least 10 billion cubic metres have yet to be drained.

It s not true to say, as the Irrigation Department chief did recently, that the biggest mass of water has already passed Bangkok.

There is still a huge mass of floodwater in the fields of several provinces including 3.9 billion cubic metres in Nakhon Sawan and 4 billion cubic metres in Ayutthaya. So it can be said that about 10 billion cubic metres of flood water is still threatening Bangkok.

This so-called floodwater in the fields _ when will it reach Bangkok?

The floodwater in the fields will certainly come, but not in a mad rush. We have never faced such a huge mass of floodwater in the fields. This is the main reason for the miscalculation and adversely affects the government's action plans.

Floodwater in the fields does not inundate all areas at the same time or at the same level.

In hindsight, the government's flood management should have been carried out much better than it was.

The first mistake was the retention of too much water in Bhumiphol and Sirikit dams.

The water level in both dams this year was higher than usual, yet the Irrigation Department decided in June not to release much water, allegedly to keep water for second-crop rice cultivation and to prevent drought in the summer. When too much rain started flowing in, they had to release large amounts of water.

The second factor was the rainy season came one and a half month earlier than normal.

The third factor was this year's rainy season has lasted a long time. It has rained practically every day, filling up reservoirs, dams, and fields more or less at the same time.

The amount of rainfall this year is about 30-45% greater than the annual average.

The first mistake was we did not release enough water from the two major dams. The second mistake was when the huge amount of water which was released reached Chai Nat.

We had not anticipated that so much rain would have fallen over the past two weeks.

If we had known it would rain so heavily, we would have directed the waterflow to the west of the Chao Phraya River via Pholthep water gate.

When we did decide to do that, it was too late, as there was too much water to both the north and south of Chai Nat.

We should have directed the waterflow to the west to Suphan Buri more, as it was still relatively dry, but we could not.

I would not like to say why [political heavyweight Banharn Silapa-archa _ who represents the province _ is also adviser to the Charthaipattana Party, which supervises the Irrigation Department.]

The only option for us now is to direct the water to the east of Bangkok along several canals.

This was difficult as none of the canals had been dredged before.

We have now finished dredging, which should help propel the water to the sea at the rate of 30 million cubic metres a day, using 99 water pumps.

Right now the government can propel the water into the sea through all channels at the rate of about 400-500 million cubic metres a day.

There are still 10 billion cubic metres, which will take about 20 more days to drain.

Some might ask why the rate of waterflow into the sea is not more efficient.

It is not anyone's fault because the irrigation system is designed to irrigate water for slow release for farming and consumption, not designed to propel waterflow into the sea to prevent floods.

We must devise a system for efficient waterflow to supplement the irrigation system.

How much danger is the floodwater in the fields?

It just keeps coming down. In my opinion, inner Bangkok should be safe as we have an extensive drainage system with water pumps to drain excess water out quickly.

The most affected areas are the west and east of Bangkok which are already suffering, including Lat Krabang, Rangsit, Min Buri, and Klong Sam Wa.

I mentioned these areas last week but I was criticised for broadcasting the message before consulting others, but I thought it would be useful.

How much will outer Bangkok suffer?

It depends on each area's topology. If it is a low-lying area, the water can be 1-2 metres deep.

If it is higher, the water may be only 50cm deep.

People living in outer Bangkok, to the west and east, must accept the fact they live in low-lying areas with no protection.

They will have to live with floodwater for some time, and move their belongings to higher ground.

Bangkok is likely to have floods for about 2-4 weeks.

We know we can propel the water to the sea at the rate of 400-500 million cubic metres a day using pumps and boats propelling water at the river delta.

How fast is water rising?

The water is rising about 2-3 centimetres a day. As more and more barriers are erected, the water is driven into the fields and canals.

What is the best short-term measure?

We must protect the most important areas so that people can live. The longer-term plans can wait.

Inner Bangkok is safe, but where?

The inner area surrounded by flood prevention barriers.

What data are relied upon for decision-making?

The irrigation department has data concerning the main rivers and water gates. They know how much water passes through Nakhon Sawan, Chai Nat.

I have additional information from satellite pictures about the spread of floodwater in the fields which can be calculated into water volume.

If the two sets of data are collated, we have the full picture.

Is the Irrigation Department's data accurate?

I don't blame the department because they are used to irrigation only, not expediting flood waterflow.

They need to adjust. In future we must stress both irrigation and waterflow propulsion.

How to warn Bangkok people?

We must tell Bangkok residents in depth about water volume, direction, how long it will last.

But reporters are interested only in whether it is necessary to evacuate or not. They are interested in the end result, not why or how.

Who makes a decision at the Froc, the prime minister?

It is a joint decision after considering all information. However, sometimes there is no time for careful decisions as the water moves so fast.

Is there still any unpredictable factor?

I don't think so. Rain will shift to the south. If there is more rain, it is karma.

How does the centre coordinate with the BMA?

We exchange data at a certain level. One must accept there is some politics involved even though we don't want that to happen because it would mean that waterflow management is not smooth. We cannot make decisions simply, such as when and where to open and shut the sluice gates.

A country divided

The damages continue to climb and if the floods are not managed properly the country will suffer irreparable harm, notes Nakarn Laohavilai, Post Today editor.

The measurable damage includes that inflicted on material assets such as homes, farmlands, and industrial estates.

The unmeasurable damage includes the psychological wounds inflicted upon flood victims.

Residents in adjoining communities who once lived peacefully together are now engaged in disputes concerning sluice gates, and flood barriers.

Those who suffer from floods wonder why flood barriers are erected so other folks can stay dry.

Provinces are also pitted against provinces. Many people wonder why certain provinces stay dry while others nearby have to suffer floods for months.

The government came up with the Bang Rakam Model for tackling the floods, which failed to work.

When the situation grew dire, it belatedly established the Flood Relief Operations Command to tackle the floods and coordinate relief, consigning the so-called Bang Rakam Model to the rubbish bin.

Overseas investors who have invested in factories at industrial estates suffered when all five industrial estates in Ayutthaya and one in Pathum Thani were inundated.

Apart from the damage to machinery and products, they have to wait for the floods to subside before they can restart production, which could take as long as six months, resulting in losses of several billion dollars.

If the prime minister cannot assure foreign investors that she has a plan to prevent such disasters from happening again, it is unlikely they will stay in Thailand.

Hundreds of thousands of workers depend on these investors for their jobs.

Traffic a nightmare

Normally it takes about 10-15 minutes to travel from Chaeng Wattana expressway entry towards the toll gate at Ngam Wong Wan. On Thursday afternoon it took one hour and five minutes as there were thousands of cars double parking or even triple parking on the expressway to escape possible flooding in Bangkok, says a Bangkok Post reporter living in Pak Kret.

The bad signs began when the entry ramp at Muang Thong Thani _ which normally has two lanes with margin on both sides _ was nearly blocked when three lanes were occupied by parked cars leaving only a small, narrow lane for vehicles to reach the second-stage expressway.

Both sides of the elevated expressway were full of parked cars, leaving two to three lanes for traffic. Drivers had to be careful not to hit the parked cars or people walking on the expressway.

The traffic grew heavier and heavier until the reporter approached Nam Wong Wan toll gate where he found cars double-parking or even triple-parking on the expressway. The reporter finally reached the toll gate, then travelled to the Bangkok Post building at Klong Toey, which took only 20 minutes.