INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Thaksin: A new regional leader?

Woranuj Maneerungsee

The Sigaporean leader is viewed as having done a great job in passing on some of the Asean vision to Mr Thaksin

Everybody wants to make a mark in history, even Thaksin Shinawatra, who was once ranked among the world's top billionaires by Forbes magazine.

Should he do that by buying the Liverpool football club, the way Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi did with the Milan team? If he takes the shortcut, he will be better known all over the world and the international media will have another reason to call him the Berlusconi of Asia.

But perhaps that is no longer necessary. Mr Thaksin, a telecom tycoon-turned-politician, has already come to be regarded by foreign communities and international media as the next leader of the 10-member Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) after former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad stepped down last year. Mahathir is the last of Asean's old guard, who included Ferdinand Marcos of the Philippines, Indonesia's Suharto and Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew.

Mr Thaksin has won international recognition primarily for his relentless efforts to steer Thailand out of the economic shambles and into an era of strong growth, which is also among the fastest in Asia.

In terms of international economic affairs, Mr Thaksin travels abroad more often than any Thai leader in recent history, making clear his leadership to those who may have doubted it.

He earned more applause for joining and overtaking Singapore's efforts to integrate Asean through an economic community, particularly the free trade area.

Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong and Mr Thaksin pledged to push for an earlier ending date for the establishment of an Asean Economic Community. Mr Goh wanted it to be realised by 2015 while Mr Thaksin wanted to see it take shape even earlier than that.

"We really think that Singapore did a great job of giving (Thaksin) some of the Asean vision, particularly, the Asean Economic Community," Ernest Bower, president of the US-Asean Business Council, said after the annual Asean summit meeting in Bali concluded last year.

However, the city state was a reluctant leader of the regional grouping so it had passed on its ambition to Thailand, Mr Bower said.

Mr Thaksin also shows no lack of initiative. He launched the Asia Bond scheme to promote investment in Asian economies and the Asian Co-operation Dialogue, which engages 18 states from East Asia to the Middle East with Thailand as the hub.

He also played an active role in the five-nation group Bimstec (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Co-operation), the Bay of Bengal rim countries' move toward a free trade area. The He also planned to provide assistance to Cambodia, Laos and Burma to develop their economies under the umbrella of the Economic Co-operation Strategies.

As host of the latest Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation's leader meeting in Bangkok last October, Thailand seemed to have impressed the 20 leaders from Pacific-rim countries by well-organised formalities that culminated in the fantastic Royal Barge procession.

Shortly after, Thailand was given the "non-Nato ally" status by American President George Bush, making it eligible for priority delivery of defence materials and military co-operation.

Admittedly, Mr Thaksin's more prominent regional role derived primary from circumstances. Other Asean leaders such as Indonesia's Megawati Sukarnoputri and the Philippines' Gloria Arroyo, have been busy cleaning up their houses in the aftermath of the Asian economic crisis in 1997. Leaders of Brunei, and the four new Asean states _ Cambodia, Laos, Burma and Vietnam _ lack the material resources to take up a lead role in the region.

From this void emerged Mr Thaksin, a highly outspoken and dauntless leader who is not afraid to take chances or political risks. However, what impresses foreign communities and the media the most is his international economic policy, which aims to build up "Asianism", turning Asia into a huge economic bloc.

But in light of regional politics, it is unlikely that Mr Thaksin will lead Thailand to achieve the primacy that Indonesia, the largest country in Asean in terms of population, has enjoyed at selected points in Asean's history.

While Mr Thaksin might not be able to push Indonesia and Malaysia to back major political or security initiatives, Thailand is well positioned to enhance its role as the leading mainland node in the regional political system.

He can also play a role in co-ordinating economic and security initiatives among like-minded leaders inside and outside the region.