Tourism operators expect foreign visitors will return to Thailand in high numbers, but will bypass the tsunamistruck Andaman coast in favour of old favourites in the Gulf of Thailand

Fears of birdflu outbreaks were becoming yesterday's news and 2005 was looking rosy for Thai tourism and hospitality businesses.

Then tidal waves hit the shores of six resort provinces in the South on Dec 26.
The waves killed 5,300 people in Thailand. Across the Indian Ocean, the death toll reached 280,000.

The tsunami disaster shocked the world, but the tourism industry has slowly recovered despite rising oil prices that have bitten into the disposable incomes of potential tourists from all over the world.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) said 640,000 foreign tourists arrived at Bangkok International Airport in January, an 18% drop from the year before.

But in February, arrivals were up 7% yearonyear, and up 17% in March. The April figures fell 3.7% from the same period last year, probably a response to reports of violence in Thailand's deep South, particularly the April 3 bomb blasts.

Nevertheless, many tourism operators still envision a bright second half to 2005, especially during the peak travel season which begins in October.

Many insiders insist the tsunami did not drive tourists away from Thailand. Instead, they said, tourists simply avoided tsunamihit provinces, visiting other areas of the country.

"It seems to us that the revenue in the tourism and hospitality businesses in other parts of Thailand will rise by about 20%," said Pratana Manomaiphiboon, the chief financial officer of the Minor Group of Companies.

The group's Minor International, the country's largest hospitality and food service company, operates about a dozen hotel and resort properties in Thailand. It also operated Anantara Coco Palm Resort and Spa in Phangnga's Khao Lak which was destroyed by tsunami.

Ms Pratana said her group was luckier than some other hotel chains as it had only one property in the tsunamihit areas. Now, she said, properties in unaffected provinces will enjoy a windfall as tourists change their plans.

Beach resorts along the country's eastern coast and those on islands in the Gulf of Thailand are becoming increasingly popular, she said.

Those destinations used to be very popular, but in recent years Khao Lak gained popularity among welltodo tourists, prompting traffic to other beach destinations to fall significantly, Ms Pratana said. Now tourists are returning to their old favourites, she said.

Thavatchai Sachdev, the comanaging director of the 251room Majestic Grande boutique hotel off Sukhumvit Road in Bangkok, agrees. He said Thailand's tourism industry as a whole was not seriously affected by the tsunami.

"Until now, the impact remains only in certain provinces where people were killed by the tidal waves," said Mr Thavatchai.

Both international and domestic tourists are still eager to enjoy Thailand's beaches, and they can choose from many more beach resorts than those in Phuket or Phangnga, he said.

It is natural that they will choose not to visit places where their holidays could be spoiled by negative incidents or a depressing atmosphere.

Hotel operators in the tsunamihit provinces, especially Phuket, Phangnga and Krabi, are offering discounts to attract tourists.

"When it comes to something lifethreatening like the tsunami disaster, sometimes money isn't enough of a substitute," said Mr Thavatchai. "But discounts are all that private operators can offer."

Government support is needed, he said. It is important to tell the world that areas vulnerable to tsunamis have warning and safety systems in place, and that local authorities can protect them from lifethreatening tidal waves should they again hit the Andaman coast.

"The government must be able to guarantee to international tourists that it has sophisticated technology capable of controlling any situation," Mr Thavatchai said.

On May 30, Thailand's new 60millionbaht disaster warning centre opened in Bangkok. The centre's sophisticated technology is also linked to disaster monitoring centres in Hawaii and Japan.

Besides ensuring that the tsunamihit provinces are safe to visit, Mr Thavatchai said the government should declare them a freetrade zone, which will make them attractive to international investors.

During the first quarter of this year, most major hotel chains recorded revenue and profit growth. At Minor International, revenue grew 32% and net profits jumped 88%.
Dusit Thani group had a 13% increase in revenue, and profits grew 1%. Oriental group recorded an 8% revenue increase and 12% jump in profits, while revenue grew 13% and profits 23% at ShangriLa group.

John Watson, chief executive officer of Diethelm Travel Asia, a major regional travel agent, said he expected tourismrelated businesses in the tsunamihit provinces to return to their normal level by the start of high season in October.
He said many tourists would visit the tsunamihit areas during the upcoming high season simply because they want to help by spending money in waveravaged communities.

However, Mr Watson said, the government and tourism industry should not expect Mice _ meeting, incentive, convention and exhibition _ activities to provide a substitute for real tourists in the tsunamihit provinces.

Mice visitors usually have limited leisure time to spend money or use facilities and services in the areas they visit. They cannot replace the huge amount of money spent by leisure travellers, said Mr Watson.

Thai Airways International (THAI) president Kanok Abhiradee said in an attempt to boost traffic to the tsunamihit provinces and support hotels there, THAI reached an agreement last month with 30 hotels in Phuket to create a tourismpromotion fund.
The plan calls for THAI to reserve a number of rooms for its Royal Orchid holiday packages. The money spent on hotel rooms by Royal Orchid customers at those hotels will be matched by both THAI and the government, he said.

"If tourists spend a total of 50 million baht to stay at those 30 hotels, THAI will add 50 million baht to the fund, and the government will also add 50 million baht," Mr Kanok said.

The average occupancy rate at Phuket hotels and resorts in April and May this year was only about 20%, compared to 70% during the same period last year.
But now, Mr Kanok said, the number of tourists from North America and Europe is steadily climbing back to former levels. However, he said, it will take more time for Asian tourists to return to the tsunamihit areas because of their superstitions about ghosts.