Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party was dominating early official results released early Tuesday, boosting the spirits of jubilant supporters who sang in the streets for a second night anticipating victory in the nation's historic election.
The National League for Democracy was the victor in 25 of 28 seats for which results were available, the election commission announced, though there are hundreds more contests left to count from Sunday's vote. Despite the fact that the co-chair of the military-backed ruling party said his party likely lost more seats than it won, Ms Suu Kyi urged caution.
"Stay peaceful and calm," she told supporters gathered outside her NLD party's Yangon headquarters. "The winner must be humble and avoid actions that can offend others. Real victory must be for the country, not for a group or individuals."
That advice was echoed by an official US government statement.
The White House on Monday hailed an "historic" election in Myanmar, but urged parties to wait for the final vote tally before declaring victory or making assessments about fairness.
Describing the vote as "peaceful and historic," White House spokesman Josh Earnest nonetheless urged caution. "We are seeing initial reports of results, but we encourage everyone to wait for the... election commission's official results," he said.
The election commission has said counting the votes could take a week or longer. For NLD supporters who remember the last time the party contested a nationwide election - a landslide 1990 victory that was ignored by the ruling junta - spirits were high as they danced in the rain and cheered each result that trickled in.
"I always felt excitement for the NLD for 25 years, but now I feel no fear," said Phyo Pye Aung, a 46-year-old engineer from Yangon, comparing Myanmar today with conditions under the former military regime.
The early results are coming from the NLD's strongholds in the nation's cities and central heartland. It will need to win 67 percent of those in order to select the next president given that the military is guaranteed a quarter of the seats in parliament.
Several key figures in the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party have acknowledged they have lost their own seats. Neither President Thein Sein or the nation's powerful army chief have commented on the election.
Long-time Foils
Ms Suu Kyi, 70, and her party are the long-time foils to the generals who ruled Myanmar from a coup in 1962 until 2011, when they handed power to their political arm after a vote in 2010 that was tainted by allegations of fraud and boycotted by the opposition. Sunday's vote was the most widely contested since the stolen 1990 poll, which plunged Myanmar into another generation of repression and isolation.
While more than 90 parties were competing to represent the Southeast Asian nation's 52 million people in parliament, the two largest are the NLD and USDP. If neither can control the legislature, they will need to woo smaller parties in order to select the next president. Myanmar's president will be chosen early next year in a parliamentary vote in which the upper house, lower house and military appointees each put forward a candidate.
The most obvious coalition partners would be regional parties that cater to ethnic minorities in border areas. It's unclear how well the NLD did in those regions.
Opening Industries
Since becoming president, Thein Sein, a member of the former junta, and his government have opened industries such as energy exploration, banking and telecommunications to foreign participation in a bid to bring Myanmar out of economic isolation. Foreign direct investment, led by spending on infrastructure and low-cost manufacturing, surged to $8.1 billion in the fiscal year ended in March, more than 20 times the 2010 level.
That jump helped annual economic growth average more than 7 percent since that year. The nation's currency, the kyat, weakened Monday to a three-week low of 1,288 per dollar after the election.
Ms Suu Kyi has signalled that she would continue the government's invester-friendly policy and has pledged to improve rule-of-law in the country to better foster investment.
Smooth Transition?
"We do think that the NLD's victory will provide clarity to foreign investors as long as it holds and the military/USDP continue to respect the results," said Andrew Wood, head of Asia Country Risk at BMI Research.
Tens of thousands sang in the streets of Yangon late Monday and early Tuesday as unofficial election returns showed Aung San Suu Kyi dominating the polls. (AFP photo)
President Thein Sein said before the vote that the military and the government would accept the outcome should the ruling party lose and work with the opposition to ensure a stable transition. No matter who wins the poll the military will still retain a significant role in politics because in addition to its allotment of seats in parliament it is also guaranteed control of key ministries under a constitution written by the departing junta.
Ms Suu Kyi herself is constitutionally barred from becoming president because her children are foreign nationals. She has repeatedly said she plans to find a way to lead the government should her party win, and that the constitution says nothing about someone being "above the president."
The voting, monitored by thousands of international observers who travelled to Myanmar, appeared to have gone smoothly Sunday, with no reports of violence or visible fraud. Before the vote, the election commission acknowledged that errors on the registration lists were widespread, and it could only guarantee that the lists were 30 percent accurate. It had earlier purged the voter lists of many Muslims, including most of the minority Rohingya, whom rights groups have warned are at risk of genocide.
China Watches On
The vote is being closely watched in neighbouring China and India, which both share extensive borders with the country and are vying for influence as Myanmar opens its economy. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi sees Myanmar as India's economic gateway to Southeast Asia and backed a plan for trans-national highways and railways that would pass through Myanmar to Thailand and markets beyond.
For China, the country is a key part of President Xi Jinping's effort to rebuild ancient trade routes to Europe and offers a way to reduce China's dependence on oil shipped through the Strait of Malacca. China has already financed construction of a natural gas pipeline and oil pipeline that span the country, linking China's Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal, where it can load oil and gas from the Middle East.