If history is correct, 2017 will be the year when seasonal influenza emerges as a big worry for Thailand.
The Disease Control Department has warned of an influenza outbreak which has the potential to spread throughout the country next year, especially in the seven provinces where it has been detected over the past three years. They are Ayutthaya, Bangkok, Chiang Mai, Lampang, Phuket, Phayao and Rayong.
Using time series analysis to forecast diseases next year, the department has found the possibility of seasonal influenza jumping to about 320,000 cases next year from 160,505 recorded this year.
The latest figures for this year run through to Dec 6, according to the Epidemiology Bureau.
Time series analysis uses a set of data from a specific period to make the prediction of what would happen in the future.
The department analysed the trend of four diseases and only seasonal influenza came out as a worry. Others were dengue fever, hand-foot-mouth disease and melioidosis.
History has shown a gradual increase of influenza cases in the country in recent years. In 2014, Thailand had 71,761 cases and the number rose to 75,114 a year later.
Deaths topped 81 in 2014 before going down to 28 last year and rising again to 43 this year.
Worried about the spread of the flu, the department has advised people to use preventive measures to protect themselves.
They should cover their mouths and noses when coughing, always clean their hands and avoid contact with a patient, department director-general Jessada Chokdamrongsuk said.
Anyone who has a flu symptom should stay at home and avoid going out to public places, Dr Jessada added.
Seasonal influenza was detected for the first time in 2009 in the United States and Mexico from the new type of virus, H1N1, before it spread to other countries.
Cold weather conditions are favourable for the virus to spread. In Thailand, the number of patients is normally high in the first three months and last three months of the year.