Prayut takes 'business as usual' message to Japan

Prayut takes 'business as usual' message to Japan

Analysis: Abe goes out on a limb to invite the coup leader, but seeks assurances in return.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha's meeting Monday with his Japanese counterpart Shinzo Abe is crucial to both countries, signalling a return to business as usual, while re-affirming — as Thai and Japanese diplomats have put it — the long-standing and "high-quality relationship" between the two countries.

At the same time, however, foreign affairs analysts say Japan is seeking re-assurance from Gen Prayut that, in the long term, Thailand intends to return to be a nation of political and economic stability. (Analysis continues below the infographic)

Gen Prayut's visit to Japan comes at a time when ties with other key Western partners, while still engaged, certainly cannot be viewed as business as usual following the military coup of May 2014.

His invitation to Japan is the first by a member of the G-7 group of nations and will be watched closely by other members.

For Japan, the decision not only to engage but to embrace the Prayut government is not aimed just at re-asserting its role in the region against the backdrop of China's rising political and economic influence.

More importantly, the Japanese government — and moreso Japanese business — wants a re-assurance from Thailand that the political instability and divisions of the past several years will be resolved and the stable Thailand they have become accustomed to will return.

There is "symbolic, strategic and political value" in Gen Prayut's visit because Japan is a western-style democracy and a member of the G-7, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Chulalongkorn University.

"Having Japan's acceptance is halfway recognition by Western countries of the military government in Thailand. This trip is about the administration wanting recognition — some acceptance as well as some space," he told the Bangkok Post.

At the same time, Gen Prayut's visit helps Thailand gravitate towards a more balanced and traditional foreign policy posture. Following the coup, China was quick to recognise the Prayut government, prompting concern in Japan.

Former Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan told the Bangkok Post, "The Japanese government and the private sector are looking for assurances and are asking when Thailand will recover politically and economically''.

Thailand was supportive of Japan's outreach to the region when it was looking to relocate its factories and production base to be competitive in the global market.

"But political events over the past 10 years in Thailand coupled with economic uncertainty in Japan has made the Japanese private sector anxious," he said.

Gen Prayut is well aware of the need to re-assure the Japanese and has taken a personal interest in preparations for the trip. He realises Thai-Japanese relations date back to the Ayutthaya period.

"We have helped one another through thick and thin, particularly during times of difficulty caused by natural disasters," said a senior Foreign Ministry official.

When the Fukushima earthquake struck Japan in 2011, Thai public support was immediate. Japanese investors remained in Thailand despite the 2011-2012 floods.

But the key to today's bilateral talks will be economics. With Japan being Thailand's biggest foreign investor (300,000 million baht in 2013) and second-largest trading partner (1.9 trillion baht in 2013), Gen Prayut will assure Mr Abe that Thailand will do its utmost to take care of the Japanese business community.

On regional cooperation, Gen Prayut supports the "Thailand Plus One" model of Japanese investors using Thailand as a platform and investment hub to expand their business to neighbouring CLMV (Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam) countries.

This approach coincides with Thailand's policy of becoming the region's transport hub, while promoting economic development of our neighbouring countries through the development of economic corridors in the region.

As a backdrop to their meeting, Thailand and Japan will formalise their intention to co-operate and possibly invest in key rail projects in Thailand and other lines linked to neighbouring countries.

Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha got the red carpet treatment at Haneda airport, Tokyo, when he and his wife Naraporn arrived to begin a three-day visit to Japan. (AP photo)

On the Dawei Special Economic Development Zone, Thailand, Japan and Myanmar are starting with smaller scale projects such as a power plant and roads to connect Dawei to the Thai border.

Gen Prayut will also outline his government's plan to establish Special Economic Development Zones in five border areas and invite Japanese investors to work with the government in developing the areas between Thailand and its neighbours.

Domestic Thai politics, especially the recent impeachment of former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, are unlikely to be discussed. However, some discussion of Thailand's roadmap to elections is expected.

While many Thai officials view Mr Abe's invitation to Gen Prayut as an indication that relations are nearly back to normal, others have urged caution.

"This trip should not be viewed simply as competition with the Chinese. Nor should we treat this visit as if relations are back to normal. The current situation is not business as usual," said one senior Thai diplomat.

The initial Japanese response to the May 22 coup last year was concern, and its engagement with Thailand was muted.

The Japanese government consulted with its allies, especially the United States, and listened to Japanese business sectors before Mr Abe made the decision to invite Gen Prayut to Japan with a full welcome.

"That decision illustrates how important Thailand is to Japan and illustrates a high-quality relationship. No matter what happens, the ties between Thailand and Japan will continue. And even if there are disagreements, comments are welcome, but you do not abandon each other," the diplomat added.

"Japan is going out on a limb, politically and economically, by inviting Prayut to visit," said Mr Surin, adding that other G-7 members will be monitoring the visit's key messages.

Japan is a long-time friend, investor and supporter, and it is necessary during this visit that Thailand shows progress in its return to democracy. It should be clear about what benefits Japan can expect.

"Thailand's stability and its future are crucial for Japan. Thailand's message on how it plans to move forward must be crisp, clear and strong," Mr Surin added.

When Gen Prayut met with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Myanmar last November, he called on his Thai counterpart to restore a civilian-led government - but the political difference did not prevent talks about railway contracts and trade. (Photo courtesy of Government House)

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