August inflation down 1.19% on energy prices

August inflation down 1.19% on energy prices

Inflation as measured by the consumer price index continued to fall for the eighth straight month in August, by 1.19% year-on-year, mainly on declining oil prices, according to Commerce Ministry.

The August figure brought the eight-month inflation to contract by 0.89%,

Somkiat Triratpan, director of the ministry's Office of Trade Policy and Strategy, said consumer prices based on 450 products and services stood at 106.33 points, down 1.19% from the same month in 2014 and 0.23% from July.

The figure followed contractions of 1.05% in July, 1.07% in June, 1.27% in May, 1.04% in April, 0.57% in March, 0.52% in February and 0.41% in January.

He said inflation was still in the negative zone in August when sharply lower oil prices brought down the prices of energy-related products while those of consumer goods remained steady.

The index of non-food and non-alcoholic beverage sector dropped by 2.52% year-on-year last month while the food and non-alcoholic beverage group saw the prices increase by 1.12%. 

Mr Somkiat said the eight-month slide of the consumer price index did not indicate deflation as it was due to a 50% drop in oil prices year-on-year. 

The ministry is in the process of revising its inflation estimate. The latest forecast was in a range between 0.6% and 1.3%, based on the assumption of 3-4% GDP growth, Dubai crude oil prices at US$50-60 a barrel and the exchange rate of 32-34 baht against the dollar.

He said these factors had changed so it was possible that inflation this year would be in the negative territory.

If this is the case, it will be the first time in six years. In 2009, inflation contracted by 0.9% as the result of the implementation of several projects aimed at reducing the cost of living such as free transportation and utilities. Oil prices in 2009 also dropped to $61 a barrel, from $94 in 2008. 

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