The draft charter could be voted down today by the National Reform Council after heavy lobbying this past week by members closely linked to the military.
Storm over democracy: All eyes will be on the National Reform Council today as it votes on the draft charter.
The about-face is a response to growing criticism of the charter, especially against the formation of the National Strategic and Reform and Reconciliation Committee (NSRRC), or so-called crisis panel. The crisis panel comprises 23 individuals who are empowered to intervene in the event of a political impasse that might result in violence.
It takes over both executive and legislative powers from the government. Two-thirds of the panel must vote for intervention if it is to go ahead. Critics say the crisis panel ensures the military retains political influence and control if the charter is approved, passes a referendum and elections are held.
If the charter is voted down today, the National Reform Council’s term ends and a 21-man charter drafting committee will be set up. It will have six months to draft a new charter.
If the NRC passes the charter, elections are expected to take place by September next year.
This means that the current government will remain in office even longer and elections will be further delayed, political analysts said. Whether the draft charter passes or not, military influence remains.
NRC sources said members linked with the military were given a signal early last week to overturn the draft.
"Passing on special power from the NCPO to the crisis panel is tantamount to allowing those in power to cling on to power for at least five years," said a military-affiliated member of the NRC. "I want to affirm that the military-aligned members of the NRC have a clear standpoint and can explain to people that we will not support the draft charter that includes the NSRRC as this gives a clear signal of staying in power."
Another NRC source confirmed that intense lobbying was carried out through high-ranking military officers in the NRC. The source said nearly all military-aligned members of the NRC would vote no to the draft charter.
A member of the Constitution Drafting Committee, meanwhile, said if the draft charter is shot down, the clause forming the crisis panel appears likely to be retained because it was the wish of the NCPO from the outset.
Referring to reports of heavy lobbying to upend the draft charter, Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwon said he had nothing to do with it. "How can I be involved? I am a deputy prime minister in charge of security affairs and this [charter vote] is a matter for the legislative side," said Gen Prawit. "The NRC must be left to deal with the issue on its own."
The proposed charter must receive a simple majority of yes votes to be accepted. There are now 247 members of the council.
An NRC source said 140 NRC members are estimated to give no votes, citing the latest counts yesterday. About 100 would vote yes. About 20 members who are not in favour of the draft have a chance to change their minds, the source said.
NRC member Wanchai Sonsiri said he estimated at least 147 NRC members would vote against the draft charter, adding that those who had yet to make a decision may follow the majority. He conceded efforts had been made to lobby NRC members to overturn the charter.
Talks have been held with NRC members by legal experts, academics, local administration officials, military and police to persuade them to overthrow the charter, Mr Wanchai added.
United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) chairman Jatuporn Prompan yesterday posted a message on his Facebook page saying the move to overthrow the draft charter was carried out by the NCPO. The NCPO may have estimated the draft would be purged by the referendum anyway, he said.
Former Democrat list-MP Ratchadaporn Kaewsanit said NRC members should have spoken out about the draft charter's contents so members of the public could learn about and acknowledge the impact of the constitution.
They should not have only focused on debating whether to accept the charter or not, Ms Ratchadaporn said.
She also lambasted NRC member Sira Janejakha for his comment that politicians who disagree with the charter should not contest the elections once the draft is pushed through, saying he was misleading the public.
"In the first stage, we must accept the decision of the NRC and then by the people. No efforts should be made to direct people in the final stage," she said.
Chaturon Chaisaeng, a leading member of the Pheu Thai Party and former education minister under the Yingluck Shinawatra government, yesterday posted messages on his Facebook page against the draft charter.
Under the charter, people would be at a disadvantage because elected senators would be a minority in the upper house and MPs are forced to devise laws in line with the NSRRC, he said.
People may also get an unelected prime minister who may lead a government which cannot respond to public needs because it has to follow the NSRRC's assignments, he said.
The NCPO and its affiliates will gain the most from the draft charter as the council will form the National Reform Steering Committee to mobilise reforms, which means the NCPO will still exist and overshadow all branches of power, he said.
A provisional clause, Mr Chaturon said, also allows the National Legislative Assembly to select NSRRC members in expert positions. With military top brass, the NCPO would have the chance to dominate the NSRRC as it can hold more than two-thirds of the votes on the panel.
This means the NCPO will try to cling on power through the NSRRC, he said.