People living in the Chao Phraya River basin should prepare for a drought crisis that will last until 2017, and those in Bangkok should store water for consumption during the dry season, a seminar was told.
Anond Snidwongs, director of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA), said the El Nino effect would result in a repeat of this year's weather pattern over the next couple of years -- rainfall that comes late in the season, and in below average amounts.
Climate change had produced less rainfall in the north and the west, the main sources of water supplying the dams along the Chao Phraya River basin.
However, the east and the south will not suffer from water shortages as rainfall there has been sufficient.
"If the forecast is correct, it means that we will face serious water shortages in the long run. If we can't save water in the agricultural sector, we can't survive the water shortage crisis as this is the biggest water consumption sector," Mr Anond said.
He was speaking at a seminar on water management organised by Bangchak Petroleum Plc and Krungthep Thurakit newspaper.
According to GISTDA, one million of the three million rai of paddy fields in the Chao Phraya River basin are in irrigated areas, mostly in Pichit and Supan Buri provinces.
However, the Royal Irrigation Department disputes these figures, saying there are only 500,000 rai of paddy fields in the irrigated areas of the river basin.
Mr Anond said convincing farmers to switch from planting rice to plants that consume less water in the dry season was a challenging job for state agencies, which need to win the trust of farmers.
Thanarat Phumimakasikorn, assistant to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand governor, said power shortages won't happen, even if water in Bhumibol dam in Tak province and Sirikit dam in Uttaradit province falls to levels where they cannot produce hydropower.
They account for only 2% of Thailand electricity's energy sources, he said.
It is expected there will be around 3.6 billion cubic metres of water in the dams along the Chao Phraya River basin at the end of the rainy season, he said.
This is a small amount compared to the average of 9 billion cu/m discharged by the two dams each year for daily consumption, agriculture and ecological system preservation.
Authorities have forecast there will be only 981 million cu/m of water in the Bhumibol dam and 1.86 billion cu/m in the Sirikit dam at the end of this month, with two smaller dams also supplying less than 1 billion cu/m of water.
Meanwhile, Wiwat Salyakanthorn, chairman of the Agri-nature Foundation, warned that people living in irrigated areas will be hardest hit by any water shortages in coming months as they lack self-reliance and the ability to fend for themselves.
He said this was especially true of people in Bangkok, who rely on the tap water system and have few clues about how to preserve water in their households.
"I see no choice left, except self-reliance, especially for people living in the capital. They should prepare to preserve water as they might face water shortages or salty water. This will happen and we can't avoid it," he said.
"Each community should have their own ponds for water storage, which is a way of self-reliance suggested by His Majesty the King, who is a world-class master of water management."