History beckons in pivotal vote

History beckons in pivotal vote

Monitors sound caution over irregularities and possible violence

Yangon: Voters are fronting up to polling booths across Myanmar this morning faced with a stark choice — endorse army-backed reform or push into an uncertain democratic future.

all hands on deck: Election Commission staff ready ballot boxes in Mandalay yesterday.

The opposition National League for Democracy, which has campaigned under the slogan "Vote for change", is widely tipped to secure at least a partial victory in the historic poll, but faces a daunting challenge to secure a majority in parliament where a quarter of the seats are reserved for the military.

“If the [NLD] party wins, there will definitely be change,” said former exiled student leader Aung Naing Oo, who now works at the Myanmar Peace Centre.

"If on the other hand the Union Solidarity and Development Party prevails and Thein Sein retains the presidency, he will provide continuity with ongoing reforms and bring about more critical changes in a second term.

"Positive changes are coming, no matter what happens,” Aung Naing Oo said.

But among international observers the optimism is more cautious. Despite the election marking a key milestone for a country on the road out of decades as an international pariah, even before polls opened there have been concerns over irregularities and the threat of violence.

Diplomats here in the commercial capital say they fear tempers may flare if the huge expectations built in the lead-up to today’s historic polls fail to match the eventual outcome.

In Yangon the expectation is clearly for an NLD victory. The city has been transformed in recent days into a sea of red — the colour of the opposition party, led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Outbound traffic has slowed to a crawl since Friday, as migrant residents return to their local constituencies to vote.

Myanmar nationals based abroad were also reportedly seen wearing red on flights back from Singapore, according to 33-year-old tour guide Sai Tun Tip.

“People are ready to change what we call our leader from 'Abha' — for President Thein Sein — to 'Ahma', for Mrs Suu Kyi,” joked 39-year-old Pyu Pyu, a housewife of a foreign businessman who said she would vote for “The Lady”.

But farther afield polling predictions are harder to make, particularly as the ruling USDP faces concerns raised by the UN and human rights groups over flaws in the electoral preparation including errors, manipulation and discrimination.

Reports said the cancellation of polling in areas affected by sectarian violence and ethnic resistance has caused an estimated 10% of eligible voters — most of whom would be opposed to the military-aligned USDP — to be excluded from the vote.

Even among some of those eligible to vote, there remain barriers. For ordinary people whose wages are lower than the 3,600 kyat (120 baht) daily minimum wage, making a journey home to vote is an expensive prospect.

“I don’t bother. I think life will likely be the same [whatever the result],” said a worker at a card printing shop near Sule Pagoda.

Khin Maung Oo, 65, a businessman, has never voted. But he was concerned that Mrs Suu Kyi might be overestimating her party’s strength and that the landslide victory she predicted as recently as last week would be unlikely.

“Certainly the hero-worship psyche [of voters] and their unquestionable love and respect for her and her father will get NLD the votes, rather than policy or talented candidates — of which the opposition has none,” said Khin Maung Oo.

While little separates the policy platforms of the two major parties, Aung Din, a former political prisoner and US-based adviser to the Open Myanmar Initiative, said a major concern was what would happen if the NLD lost, and whether Mrs Suu Kyi and her supporters would accept the outcome.

Kyaw Min San, 38, an NLD candidate for Pako region, 80km north of Yangon, has already complained that election officials in the constituency have failed to follow proper procedures.

“Voters must have serial numbers to match the constituent lists and ballot cards, but some of them have had their serial numbers withdrawn without being informed,” said Kyaw Min San, a lawyer and first-time candidate.

“When asked, the authorities don’t have proper records.”

Despite the uncertainty, EU ambassador to Myanmar Roland Kobia was optimistic the election would herald a positive step towards the democratisation of Asean.
For Aung Naing Oo, the former student leader, the 2010 election was considered Myanmar’s first baby steps toward multiparty democracy, and the 2012 by-elections a toddler’s unsteady but enthusiastic walk.

“The 2015 election can be considered Myanmar’s first firm teenage stride toward democratic maturity,” said Aung Naing Oo, who has been involved in brokering the recent ceasefire agreement between the military government and armed ethnic groups.

President Thein Sein says his government and the military, which gave up power only five years ago, will respect the results of today’s elections.

“I heard that there are worries whether the outcome of the election would be respected. Our government and the military want to repeat that we will respect the outcomes of the free and fair election,” he said in a speech late on Friday.

“According to the outcome of the election, we will work together in the new political arena,” Thein Sein said.

Whatever the outcome, today's election is unlikely to bring the kind of sweeping change sought by many NLD supporters. Journalist and renowned Myanmar expert Bertil Lintner noted that the military would still wield veto power over any attempt to amend major clauses in the constitution, and would still appoint the "three most important ministers": those of defence, home affairs and border affairs.

"Election day may be a joyous affair and political pundits will be praising it as an important step towards democracy," he said.

"But wait a few months, and then you'll see where the country is headed. When the smoke has cleared and the dust has settled, it will be more business as usual than the optimists are expecting today."

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