Confidence hits 7-month low in April

Confidence hits 7-month low in April

Consumers are buying what they need, but not much more, and their confidence in the economy has fallen every month this year, says the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. (Bangkok Post file photo)
Consumers are buying what they need, but not much more, and their confidence in the economy has fallen every month this year, says the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. (Bangkok Post file photo)

Consumer confidence fell for a fourth straight month in April and hit a seven-month low as people were concerned about the slower-than-expected economic recovery, widespread drought and low farm prices.

A survey by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce showed Tuesday the consumer confidence index had dropped to 72.7 points in April, compared to 73.5 in March, 74.7 in February, 75.5 in January, 76.1 in December, 74.6 in November and 73.4 in October.

On Monday the Commerce Ministry reported the first inflation on consumer goods since 2014, and said it expects even bigger price hikes every month for the rest of this year.

Thanavath Phonvichai, vice-president for research, said consumers felt the economy was recovering quite slowly and their income had not increased due to low farm product prices and the impact of the drought.

"Consumer sentiment has yet to show any signs of an upward trend, as people remain cautious about spending in the first half of the year," he said. "People in many areas are also increasingly concerned about the adverse impact of the drought, which may affect farm production and income."

Other factors weakening consumer sentiment are the sluggish global economic recovery and the Finance Ministry's recent downward revision of the 2016 economic growth forecast.

The ministry's Fiscal Policy Office (FPO) in late April cut its forecast for growth this year to 3.3% from 3.7% amid concerns over exports.

Although exports swung back to growth in February and March, an 8.9% drop in January's shipments compelled the Finance Ministry's think tank to cut its export forecast to a 0.7% contraction from 0.1% growth.

Exports this year are constrained by uncertainties in the global economic recovery, especially China's economy, and Thailand's structural export problems, according to the FPO.

Mr Thanavath said consumers were also concerned about the higher cost of living and a rise in food prices.

The Commerce Ministry reported on Monday that consumer prices based on 450 products and services edged up 0.07% year-on-year in April, the first rise in 16 months, driven by more expensive food, fuel, farm products and cigarettes.

The ministry is scheduled to revise its inflation policy next month after global oil prices started recovering and with farm product prices likely to increase thanks to lower supply caused by the drought.

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