Time for a close look at Burma's nuclear programme

There is good reason why regional intelligence sources are skeptical of the Burmese military regime's nuclear capacity. Verifying stories coming out of Burma is hard. The regime has banned the international media. Defectors may inflate their own importance in the hope of getting themselves resettled to a third country and exiled Burmese political activists need to keep the international spotlight on the regime's negative activities.

It is not unknown for the regime to also put out misinformation to cover what it is really doing. Burma is a poor country, infrastructure in rural areas is virtually non-existent and sanctions against the regime have restricted their earning potential.

In recent years the US government has voiced concerns over North Korean, Syrian and Iranian plans to build weapons of mass destruction, but so far has kept silent about Burma. Australian defence analyst Andrew Selth, a research fellow at Griffith Asia Institute, is reported as saying there is always a lot of smoke surrounding Burma's nuclear ambitions.

"Over the past year or so, the amount of smoke has increased, but still no one seems to know whether or not it hides a real fire. With this in mind, strategic analysts in many countries are looking to the Obama administration for an authoritative statement on Burma's nuclear status."

In May 2007, in a press release announcing the deal to build a nuclear-research reactor in Burma, Russia's atomic energy agency, Rosatom, said it would be under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Burma is already a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, established under the responsibility of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and it is required to allow inspections of its nuclear facilities, but so far has failed to do so.

Skeptical regional security agents and embassy insiders are willing to concede that the Burmese regime cannot be trusted. And for good reason. Burma lies near the top of the world's worst lists; child soldiers, landmines, forced labor, forced displacement, suppression of political opponents, disease control, illicit narcotics, trafficking people and corruption.

A recent number of high profile interventions by the international community involving both Burma and North Korea have added to the distrust. Early last month the North Korean freighter the Nam Kam 1 was shadowed by US warships (sanctioned by the UN) as it headed to Burma with an unknown cargo, believed to be arms.

On July 1, the global edition of the New York Times reported that Japanese police arrested a North Korean and two Japanese nationals for allegedly trying to export illegally to Burma a magnetic measuring device that could be used to develop missiles.

Burma does have a nuclear programme, but what is uncertain is the extent of it, and until it can be convincingly denied that there is no possibility the regime is developing nuclear weapons, regional security authorities are maintaining their silence, but privately say Burma's nuclear plans need closer scrutiny - and the sooner the better.