Bangkok Post : Beware of Mother Nature

Thailand is about to pass the year 2009 without major natural disasters, but the country may not enjoy an easy ride in the coming year as turbulent weather is expected.

Weathermen, geo-hazard experts, forest firefighters, and disaster response officials are on high alert as their initial climate analyses show the high possibility of extreme weather events, triggered by global warming, which will become increasingly unpredictable.

These range from droughts, haze, flash floods, mudslides, sinkholes, coastal and river bank erosion, to forest fires.

The Forest Fire Control Division (FFCD) is aware of the threat.

Last month it posted an announcement on its website warning against massive wildfires during the dry season which will run until mid-2010.

"The forest fire situation from the end of this year to the middle of next year will be more severe than the previous forest fire season," the announcement said.

The wildfire forecast is based on the US Climate Prediction Centre's detection of an El Nino episode in the Pacific Ocean in August.

The centre reported that the sea surface temperature was 0.7-1.0C above mean level, indicating the development of a moderate El Nino phenomenon.

"El Nino will cause a higher than usual temperature plus less rainfall in the Kingdom in the first half of 2010, increasing the risk of forest fire," the FFCD reported. The division urged authorities to keep updating weather conditions instead of relying on normal climate patterns because "the unprecedented climate and weather fluctuations, resulting from global warming, make it extremely difficult to make long-term weather and wildfire forecasts."

Forest fire experts have also been instructed to monitor the movement of high pressure ridges which will trap heat and small dust particles leading to haze problems during the peak forest fire period.

"Haze crises such as those which happened in the North in March 2007 and 2009 might occur again this season," the division warned.

Areas most vulnerable to wildfire disasters are 27 provinces listed as wildfire risk zones, such as Chiang Mai, Lamphun, Mae Hong Son, Tak, Uthai Thani, Ubon Ratchathani, Kanchanaburi and Narathiwat.

The Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry has also raised concern over the occurrence of El Nino, which could lead to water shortages and drought in Thailand.

Farmers in non-irrigated areas would be hardest hit by drought, said Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Theera Wongsamut.

The ministry had drafted a disaster preparedness and response plan for the farm sector and set up a committee, made up of representatives from state agencies, to help farmers affected by natural disasters in 2010.

Meteorological Department deputy chief Somchai Baimuang, however, played down concerns over the impact of El Nino, saying the phenomenon would only indirectly affect Thailand's weather conditions.

"What we are most concerned about is the climate variability which causes sudden torrential rain, flash floods, tropical cyclones, and turbulent seas," he said.

"These weather events can strike a certain area within 24 hours, a week, or a month and people must be prepared for them."

People in all regions, except the South, could face extremely hot weather between April and May when the temperature might hit 40C.

High temperatures could be accompanied by tropical storms, hail and lightning strikes.

Regarding flooding, Mr Somchai said next year's precipitation rate is expected to be similar to this year's, and flood problems could be solved simply through good water management.

However, areas with more than two days of continuous rain should be prepared for flash floods, he warned.

The department deputy chief said he would like to see better disaster preparedness and response at the community level.

"Villagers, especially in disaster-risk zones, must be trained to protect themselves from natural hazards," he said. "Advanced weather forecast technology or disaster warning systems will be useless, if the locals don't know how to use them to save their communities."

Adichart Surinkum, director of the Mineral Resources Department's geo-hazard operation centre, monitoring geological-related disasters such as earthquakes, mudslides, land erosion and sinkholes, said preparedness was key.

"As natural disasters are increasing while weather conditions become more unpredictable, people's understanding of natural hazards and good disaster preparedness is key to their survival," Mr Adichart said.

• This is the first in a series. Tomorrow: Future health threats