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Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra recently broadcast via satellite TV that if the government was so sure there would be only a small number of red shirt supporters coming to Bangkok, why not dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election. If the Democrat Party wins, the red shirts would accept the outcome and stop their agitation, noted a Thai Rath writer.

Monks join a red shirt rally in Nakhon Ratchasima last week. Prakru Suthep Sitthikhun, abbot of Wat Sribunrueng in Chiang Mai, has called on monks to join the red shirt rally this weekend. NATTHITI AMPRIWAN

The writer believed that Thaksin must be careful in pressuring the Abhisit administration and instruct his supporters not to use excessive violence as it will play into the hands of some military brass who are ready to seize power and dissolve the arena in which Thaksin and other politicians like to play.

The government must not underestimate the number of red shirt supporters converging on Bangkok, warned Yongyot Kaewkiew, president of the Kamnan and Village Chiefs Association of Thailand, adding the number of red shirt supporters in the North and the Northeast are mobilising en masse and might reach the one million promised by the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) leaders.

Mr Yongyot advised the government not to anger UDD supporters by dismissing the movement, saying only a few thousand or at most a hundred thousand would turn up in Bangkok as they are paid supporters, not ideologically inclined.

The Thai Rath writer believed the information from the kamnan and village chiefs should be accurate as they are close to the grass roots people. Even some monks, including Prakru Suthep Sitthikhun, the abbot of Wat Sribunrueng in Chiang Mai, have openly called on other monks to join the red shirt rally this weekend. The abbot warned fellow monks to be careful for the next few days not to accept invitations for merit-making by strangers as they might be confined so as to prevent the monks from joining the rally.

Thai Rath noted there were other groups ready to join the red shirts to voice grievances, especially poor farmers. Prapat Phothasuthon, a former agriculture minister and Chart Thai Party secretary-general, joined the meeting of farm leaders from 20 provinces in the North and Central Plains held in Suphan Buri to demand that the government help solve low paddy prices.

Now the country is facing water shortages and many farmers in the North and Northeast cannot grow any crops, it is easy to recruit them with a few incentives to join the red shirt rally in several provinces and in Bangkok.

The problem envisioned by Thai Rath is mob control. The more the red shirts turn out in great numbers, the less able the UDD leaders will be able to control the mob. Veteran mob observers believe the three UDD leaders, Veera Musikhapong, Natthawut Saikua and Jatuporn Prompan, will find it hard to control the mob, especially when they have declared they will topple the government within a week as their boss was afraid of the money drain if the rally became too protracted. Thaksin also feared that the longer the mob stays, the more the tide might turn against him and the red shirts.

The Thai Rath writer did not think the red shirts would succeed in toppling the government. There was a precedent behind this belief. The yellow shirts (People's Alliance for Democracy) staged a marathon rally over several months to no avail. Even after invading Government House and seizing Suvarnabhumi and Don Mueang airports, the Somchai administration did not cave in and resign. Only the Constitution Court ruling to dissolve the People Power Party could achieve that.

Looking at the Abhisit administration, the red shirts do not stand a chance as the government has solid backing from those in uniform while the fugitive Thaksin was cast as a villain in the recent Supreme Court ruling. With such negative social capital, Thaksin will at most be lucky to draw even in the coming battle against Mr Abhisit, concluded Thai Rath.

Golden year for Thai rice?

Thai Rice magazine, in its December 2009 issue, predicted a golden year for Thai rice in 2010 as the global price at the time was on the rise, noted Lom Pienthit, a Thai Rath writer.

The magazine featured an interview with Niphon Wongtra-ngan, then deputy prime minister Korbsak Sabhavasu's adviser, who is a veteran of the rice trade. Mr Niphon predicted this year would be a golden year for Thai rice exports as global stocks were decreasing and rice growing countries are experiencing drought.

He predicted this year the drought in several countries including Thailand would get worse due to a possible El Nino effect. It was possible global rice prices could again shoot to US$1,000 (33,000 baht) a tonne, which would greatly affect poor countries.

But under Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai, local paddy is fetching less than 10,000 baht a tonne, below the production cost. Thai rice farmers cannot become richer, only poorer through increased debt.

The fact that last year's paddy fetched a high price and then dipped alarmingly this year could explain why farmers in several provinces have come out in force to block highways to demand action from the government.

On Tuesday, farm leaders from 20 provinces in the North and Northeast held a meeting in Suphan Buri, declaring they were ready to turn the country red as the paddy price was so low and the government was taking no action to remedy their suffering. They demanded the government guarantee the paddy price at 10,000 baht a tonne, otherwise be ready to face farmers' mobs in front of the Commerce Ministry and blocked roads in several provinces.

Lom attributed the depressing paddy price to the rumour that the Commerce Ministry would sell a huge amount from the government's rice stockpile. This had an immediate effect of depressing paddy prices as exporters would not have to bid high for stocks from local rice traders and millers. They in turn took the opportunity to depress the paddy price paid to local farmers. No one in the Commerce Ministry knows who intentionally leaked the false rumour.

Lom noted that it was common knowledge among rice traders that the government's huge rice stocks were not good for the free market mechanism because if the government decided to release its own stocks to exporters at the wrong time either intentionally or unintentionally, it could easily depress local paddy prices.

Lom speculated that the Commerce Ministry knew about the problem but did not care to solve it at its root. Rather, it thought about bringing back the old, discredited, full of corruption rice pledging scheme to solve the age-old problem. The scheme buys paddy at high prices, has it milled, stockpiled and then resold at less than cost to exporters, using taxpayers' money to support a loss-making enterprise to benefit certain players.

Is Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva so naive that he does not have any intelligence on this issue?

Egat sees rising electricity use

Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand governor Suthat Pattamasiriwat on Wednesday revealed electricity consumption in February was 12,354 megawatts, a rise of 1,482 megawatts or 13.64% from the same period last year due to the early start to summer this year and the economic recovery, especially in the industrial sector, noted Matichon.

The rise is set to continue this month as use during the month of March has broken historic peaks four times in the past two years.

Normally Thailand's electricity use peaks in April and May. So Egat must closely monitor the consumption for the next two months as it is likely peak usage will be broken again.

Mr Suthat said Egat was prepared to make sure the country's electricity grid was stable, especially from March 23 to April 1 when PTT Plc would temporarily stop delivering 1,070 million cubic metres of natural gas daily from Burma to undertake pipeline maintenance. During this period, Egat would use bunker oil to increase power output from its Bang Pakong, South Bangkok and Ratchaburi plants as well as diesel for the Ratchaburi Tri-energy and Ratchaburi Power plants. These will be supplemented by natural gas from Thai-Malaysian JDA's B17 field at the rate of 300 million cubic metres a day and some electricity from Laos's Nam Thuen II hydro power plant.

The peak electricity consumption in April is forecast to be 23,600 megawatts, a rise of 1,600 megawatts from the same period last year. For the whole year, the country's electricity consumption is forecast to grow more than 5% in line with GDP growth of 4.5%.

What is critical, according to Mr Suthat, is the severe drought for the next two months. Right now, the water in all dam reservoirs is below that of last year. The total water volume is about 40,261 million cubic metres, or about 64.57% of the total retention capacity. Water in the reservoirs in the North is most worrying as it is only at about 40% capacity due to long periods without rain, resulting in severe drought on farm land outside the irrigated areas.

With 29 provinces affected by drought, Egat has helped the affected communities by ordering various dams to prepare about 30 water trucks to distribute water to government offices, schools, temples and villages.

Egat in cooperation with the Royal Irrigation Department has mapped out a plan to release enough water to irrigated areas so farmers can grow crops. However, Egat has called on the public and farmers to economise on water consumption as the coming rainy season might not provide much water and this year might see a prolonged hot season.