Thaksin Shinawatra's younger sister Yaowapa Wongsawat may have a harder fight than many realise to win the upcoming Chiang Mai by-election for the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
Yaowapa: Faces party opposition
The party has had to deny allegations that Ms Yaowapa is being readied as a ''spare prime minister'' in case her younger sister Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra faces a ''political accident'' and loses her seat.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is investigating Ms Yingluck for asset concealment in connection with a loan of 30 million baht she made to a company in which her spouse, Anusorn Amornchat, was a shareholder.
A Pheu Thai source said Ms Yaowapa is aware that the time may be near for her to step up to the plate, break out of her shell and be more assertive politically.
Kasem Nimmonrat, considered a temporary MP for Chiang Mai, abruptly resigned in order to pave the way for Ms Yaowapa to take his place, according to critics.
As a prime minister has to be an incumbent MP, it would help Ms Yaowapa to consolidate her party power if she were to stand in the poll and win office.
If Ms Yaowapa accepts the party nomination to contest the seat, it should be a given that she will win as Chiang Mai is the ''capital'' of the red shirts who support Pheu Thai. The province is also the hometown of the Shinawatras.
Her strong political roots in the constituency should make her a shoo-in for the House seat.
However, the widening rift among the red shirt factions could change that.
While many pundits think she will win, they also feel she will need to pull out all stops to secure the obligatory landslide victory.
Pheu Thai is not as united as before. The MP group dominated by senior figure Yongyuth Tiyapairat appears to be keeping a distance from the party as he is said to have been excluded from having a say in its affairs.
Some Pheu Thai MPs also do not agree with Ms Yaowapa running for MP as they feel she might be planning to take control of the party. Insiders who do not support Ms Yaowapa have thrown their support behind party seniors affiliated with Ms Yingluck.
Analysts say the divisions within Pheu Thai and among its red-shirt factions require a mediator.
But none deny Ms Yaowapa is the right candidate. She may have opponents in the party but being a sister of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra, who directs the party from Dubai, means many listen to her.
Thaksin also needs someone to keep the party united and mollify the red shirts, whose support is vital for the government's survival.
Though the prospect of Ms Yaowapa being PM is far from certain, the rumour of her aspiring to replace her younger sister could at least distract society from controversial issues such as the government's plan to borrow 2 trillion baht to finance the costliest infrastructure investment package in Thai history.
Prayuth adopts a placating tone
Prayuth: Thaksin ‘not worth listening to’
The none-too-reticent army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha handled surprisingly well a recent remark by ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
Gen Prayuth, who is known to be touchy, especially with political issues, responded calmly to reporters' queries about Thaksin's instruction to Pheu Thai Party members.
Early this month, the former prime minister Skyped in from overseas to a party meeting and told Pheu Thai members to be forthright in their work and not be too submissive to the military.
Thaksin said the government and Pheu Thai were being too soft with the military, whereas the government's opponents have not changed their ways and are disinclined to embrace national reconciliation.
Pheu Thai was losing support from some quarters of the red shirts who are not happy with its stance toward the military.
More and more red shirts are keeping their distance from Pheu Thai and the government, he noted.
Political watchers anticipated that Thaksin's remark would get Gen Prayuth's blood boiling.
However, the commander reacted with surprising coolness to the remark, which he simply brushed aside.
Gen Prayuth said comments from a person outside the country were not worth listening to.
''We should pay attention only to people inside the country. Let the people outside the country stay where they are,'' the army chief said.
He was asked if he was making a reference to Thaksin.
''I didn't name names,'' he said. Gen Prayuth added he was merely expressing a straightforward opinion, which he was entitled to do.
He insisted he was not at odds with Thaksin. ''I want to convey my moral support for the prime minister [Yingluck Shinawatra] for the efforts she has made in her job,'' he said.
Ms Yingluck, he said, is her own woman and the hard work she has done since taking office shows.
The army chief said Ms Yingluck was in charge of the country, and rejected the opinions of some people who paint a picture of her as a stand-in for Thaksin, her brother.
From his own observation, Ms Yingluck had grown into a mature politician who is more adept and focused in running the affairs of the state than when she first took office.
Political observers said Ms Yingluck's biggest asset is her humility and her extraordinary ability to withstand pressure and deflect criticism against her and the government.
Chuan blasts southern MPs
Chuan: Duty to constituents
Some Democrat Party MPs may be taking too much comfort in the thought that the party's traditional dominance of the southern constituencies will last forever, according to party patriarch Chuan Leekpai.
Mr Chuan is rather upset that some Democrat MPs in the three southern border provinces may be losing touch with their constituents.
The former premier and former leader of Thailand's oldest party, strongly believes that if an MP is out of sight, he will also be out of the minds of the voters, a party insider said.
Political sources agree the Democrats need to solidify their hold on their political turf in the far South at all costs. The main opposition party is not making any inroads into constituencies in other regions, except in Bangkok where it retains a solid base of support.
Mr Chuan has every reason to be concerned about a possible shrinking of the Democrats' popularity in the far South.
The government may be starting to give the Democrat Party a run for its money with the peace talk initiative sealed with the insurgent umbrella group known as the Barisan Revolusi Nasional.
The agreement to hold talks, chided as a public relations stunt by the government's opponents, has nonetheless won praise from many quarters including local peace advocates.
The Democrats argue the agreement recognises the separatist rebels. However, the party has been slammed by the government for not having lifted a finger to broker a peace process when it was in government.
At the same time, the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre is spending large sums to drive peace policies which could chisel away the Democrats' support.
The opposition party currently commands the lion's share of MP seats in the far South, with nine of the 11 available.
However, some Democrat MPs in the region have hardly visited their constituents since the last election.
The party source said Mr Chuan is disappointed with the performances of the Democrat MPs in the southern border provinces because they have failed to listen to the problems of the people and report them to parliament.
Mr Chuan recently headed a party meeting and lectured the MPs as well as leader Abhisit Vejjajiva on how the party might be drifting away from its supporters.
Such lectures are rare in Democrat circles, but Mr Chuan is known to give those who underperform as MPs a piece of his mind.
The MPs must report the people's hardships to parliament and ''pay close attention to the sufferings of the people who elected you'', Mr Chuan was quoted as telling the nine Democrat MPs.
The source said the nine Democrat MPs from the three southern border provinces only narrowly won their seats in the last election.
With the election swinging on a knife-edge, the party was forced to send prominent figures to the far South to help with the last-minute campaigning.
Without their participation in the campaign, some of the party's candidates in the South might not be sitting in parliament today.
If the MPs do not shape up and visit their constituents more often, their seats could be lost to veteran politicians of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, the source said.