Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva is predicting a snap general election at the end of this year _ one which he admits his party is likely to lose.
Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva gives a special interview to the Bangkok Post outlining Thailand’s political situation yesterday.He predicts a House dissolution is nigh. PAWAT LAOPAISARNTAKSIN
He says the government's populist policies are failing and it will probably be forced to dissolve the House early to maintain power.
In an exclusive interview with the Bangkok Post yesterday, Mr Abhisit said it was clear the Pheu Thai-led government was planning an early election as it was trying to rush through controversial legislation as quickly as possible.
He pointed in particular to the party's move, joined by its red-shirt allies, to pressure the Constitution Court over its decision to accept a petition against the government's attempt to amend Section 68 of the charter.
The ruling party MPs have rejected the charter court's authority to review the issue, labelling the court's move as an intervention in parliamentary affairs.
Mr Abhisit said the party was using intimidation tactics to prevent any delays to the amendment and ensure the path is clear for a snap election at year's end.
He also said deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra had signalled a snap election was imminent by ordering party MPs to visit their constituencies and consolidate their voter bases.
However, Mr Abhisit said a House dissolution would not take place before the government's 2-trillion-baht infrastructure loan bill is passed.
The bill, which sailed through its first reading in parliament in late March, is being vetted by a scrutiny committee. It may be submitted for second and third readings when parliament convenes for a special session later this month to scrutinise the 2014 budget.
The opposition leader said that by calling an early election, the government would avoid a growing voter backlash against problems caused by its populist platform.
He said populism was catching up with the Yingluck administration. The rice-pledging scheme, the 300-baht minimum wage and the dissolution of the oil fund are taking a massive toll on public support for the government.
"In fact, we want the government to complete its term. The public is learning about [Pheu Thai's] flashy policies and comparing them to the Democrats' platform," he said. Mr Abhisit said an early election would put the Democrats at a disadvantage, conceding the opposition party is in urgent need of reforms to boost its support base. However, he vowed not to resort to populist platforms to win over voters.
"The party isn't here just to make me the prime minister. The party won't go down any road that will hurt the country," he said.
While admitting his party stands little chance of winning in fresh elections, Mr Abhisit said he would not concede defeat.
In the most recent general election in July 2011, the Democrat Party won 11 million votes on the party list, about 3 million votes behind Pheu Thai.
"I believe the votes we've received will remain. But it will take some time to expand our voter base," he said.
The opposition leader said the party intends to broaden its nationwide support base to 15 million votes. In Bangkok, the party aims to secure 1.5 million votes.
Mr Abhisit said the party was content with the result of the recent Bangkok governor election, where its candidate MR Sukhumbhand Paribatra emerged victorious with 1.2 million votes.
Mr Abhisit used those results to deduce that Pheu Thai's support base had shrunk by 200,000 votes in the capital. Pheu Thai candidate Pongsapat Pongcharoen received about 1 million votes, while Pheu Thai received 1.2 million votes in Bangkok on the party list in the 2011 general election.
Mr Abhisit said such a decline was significant because the ruling party had exploited state mechanisms to tip the poll in its favour.
The Democrat leader said a number of charges were laid against him and other Democrat heavyweights in a bid by Pheu Thai to derail the party's campaign. Several party supporters were also harassed by police, he said.
The Democrats will also focus heavily on the central provinces, where there are more than 20 battleground seats, Mr Abhisit said. "We lost by a narrow margin in these provinces [in 2011]. If we can broaden the support base, we can turn things around," he said.
Mr Abhisit said the Democrats also stand a chance of clawing back ground in the North and Northeast, especially from the party-list system.
Farmers in those regions embrace the government's crop subsidy scheme but do not support its candidates, he said.