Graft rulings cloud political outlook

Graft rulings cloud political outlook

ANALYSIS: Impending Charter Court, NACC decisions threaten to undermine the government's legitimacy and consolidate street protests

Political tension will peak again next week when two independent agencies make decisions on cases involving the government-sponsored charter amendments.

The rulings threaten to raise serious legal complications for the caretaker government ahead of the Feb 2 election.

The National Anti Corruption Commission (NACC) will decide on Tuesday whether it will press charges against 381 former MPs and senators who voted to pass the charter amendment draft to establish a fully elected Senate. The amendment was deemed unlawful by the Constitution Court on Nov 20.

Caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is among those who voted in favour of the amendment.

Political observers believe there is a strong chance the NACC will press charges. The anti-graft agency already agreed late last month to pursue charges against former House speaker Somsak Kiatsuranon and Senate Speaker Nikhom Wairatpanich for their role in the passage of the amendment. If the NACC rules against the former MPs, their legal status will be thrown into question, and if they are re-elected, they could face legal challenges.

Meanwhile, the Constitution Court is set to rule on Wednesday whether the draft amendment to Section 190 is also unlawful.

Critics allege the amendment violates Section 68 of the charter, which prohibits anyone from overthrowing the country's democratic system with the King as head of state. The draft amendment, which also sailed through parliament, would give the government almost full authority to commit the country to almost all international agreements without prior consent of the legislature.

If the court finds that amendment is also unlawful, the former MPs and senators who voted to pass it will face a fresh NACC inquiry.

Even though the impending decisions will not carry enough weight to keep the politicians, mostly from the Pheu Thai Party, away from politics, they have the potential to damage the legitimacy of the government and the candidates contesting the Feb 2 poll. If the decisions come down against those lawmakers, they are also likely to bolster the campaign by anti-government protesters to ''shut down'' Bangkok from Jan 13.

But even if the government scrapes through both cases unscathed, there remain a number of other corruption probes currently under way at the NACC.

Recent reports suggest the graft watchdog is getting ready to wrap up its probes into alleged irregularities involving the government's planned water management project and its controversial rice-pledging scheme.

If the NACC rules against the government in any one of thes graft cases, it could force the suspension of Ms Yingluck from politics.

Core members of both the anti-government People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) and the red-shirt United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) appear to recognise the challenges facing the government.

Suriyasai Katasila of the PDRC said these events will affect the political landscape and have the potential to create a political vacuum.

Ms Yingluck has also been accused of violating election laws during her recent project inspection trips in the North and Northeast, amid claims she used state funds to finance a campaign tour.

Another crucial factor will be the PDRC's ''Bangkok shutdown'' campaign, set to start on Jan 13.

While the protests themselves may not be enough to pressure the government to step down, pressure from the Pheu Thai Party's financiers might do the trick.

These financiers have business interests which may not be able to withstand the impacts of a prolonged shutdown.

Mr Suthep last night announced that the main protest stage at the Democracy Monument will be dismantled on Jan 13. Small rally stages will be set up at 20 targetted intersections and he will speak from these instead.

UDD leader Jatuporn Prompan concedes that the government has a tough week ahead, noting that any unfavourable decision will be used to consolidate the PDRC street protests.

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