A coup is not the solution

A coup is not the solution

The signals are clear and ominous. We are at the edge of a precipice staring into a dark abyss.

Thaksin Shinawatra and the government only have themselves to blame for pressing ahead with the amnesty bill and rejecting the decision of the Constitution Court, confirming long-standing and deep suspicions that the Pheu Thai Party is acting on behalf of one man and cannot be trusted.

And although the government was right to dissolve parliament and initiate a reform process, no one believes these actions are sincere.

The response of the public from various walks of life who joined the People's Democratic Reform Committee's (PDRC) protest marches is evidence of this.

These protesters have every right to be angry and to demand fundamental changes to the way politicians perform.

But the PDRC's aim of overthrowing the government via a so-called people's council and by blocking candidacy registration is not right either.

Like it or not, there are millions of others across the country who support this government, and they demand the right to hire and fire politicians. You simply cannot discard one of the fundamental principles of democracy, reset the rules and then press restart. Two wrongs do not make a right.

Amid all of this are efforts to identify reform agendas and road maps, among others, by the government and private sector. Although praiseworthy, these moves and re-energised calls for reform are nothing new. They have been made before but, sadly, fell on deaf ears _ by politicians in both the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties. Both have had opportunities to push and implement political reforms in the past, but have not acted to move them forward.

What is sad is that the politicians on both sides of the divide _ be they ministers, former ministers and MPs _ slug it out in parliament and then continue their tit-for-tat at rallies or street protests. That is no way to lead a country. Both Pheu Thai and the Democrats remain overshadowed by Thaksin on the one hand and Suthep Thaugsuban and his backers on the other.

There is so much common ground for reform of the electoral process, and it is better for the country to have checks and balances in the political arena rather than dominance by a single party.

Sandwiched between the government and opponents of Thaksin stand the military, which has come under extreme pressure to remain neutral. And up until last week the military, especially the army, has deserved praise and encouragement for its position.

But this week, the army's position of not dispelling categorically the possibility of a coup has prompted fears and the belief that a coup d'etat is a fait accompli in the event that violence erupts.

The military knows full well what the political landscape holds if it stages a coup.

Sizeable numbers of red shirts will mobilise and further violence cannot be ruled out.

Even after an interim government is installed, the rules reset and elections held, Thaksin's party is more than likely to return. A coup will only favour and legitimise Thaksin. The military needs to show leadership and maximum restraint even if violence breaks out.

With the political divide that has engulfed the country over the past decade, the consequences of a coup this time would be worse than the vicious cycle we have experienced in the past. This time a coup would be the spark sending the country into turmoil.

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