The political pressure is expected to rise to breaking point in April and it is anybody's guess if the political situation will take a turn for the better or worse.
Wearing a foot brace on her left foot, caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra casts her vote in the senate election in Bung Kum district yesterday. Ms Yingluck sprained her ankle during a recent trip to Chiang Mai. PATTANAPONG HIRUNARD
The tension looks set to intensify from today when caretaker Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is expected to appear in person before the National Anti Corruption Commission (NACC) to clarify a negligence of duty charge over her role in the rice-pledging scheme.
A highly-placed source in the NACC believes the graft fighters will take about 10 days to examine the case and make a ruling. If the agency decides to indict her, the caretaker prime minister is required to suspend her duties — a scenario that will put the caretaker government's stability at stake.
Caretaker Labour Minister Chalerm Yubamrung has conceded that even though a deputy prime minister could assume the premiership, the government's stability will be seriously affected. Suriyasai Katasila, a core member of the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC), even suggests the entire administration may have to stop working because the rice pledging policy has been declared before the parliament. However, this issue is open to debate.
It remains unknown if Ms Yingluck, who criticised the NACC for its alleged double standards and unfair treatment, will testify before the NACC.
"I need to consult with my lawyers first and I will tell you [if I will appear in person]. We can either testify or give a written statement. But we have limited time," she told reporters yesterday.
Ms Yingluck stressed that she and her lawyers received 280 more pages of case documents three days before the deadline and criticised the NACC for denying her request seeking to extend giving her testimony.
In addition, she said other related documents she has requested from other agencies have yet to received.
On Wednesday the Constitutional Court is expected to decide if it will accept a petition by a group of senators asking it to rule on the prime minister's status. The petition was lodged after the Supreme Administrative Court ruled her order to remove Thawil Pliensri as National Security Council (NSC) secretary-general was unlawful.
Several political observers believe the Thawil ruling will bring the curtain down on the Yingluck administration. With the Supreme Administrative Court ruling in place, the Constitutional Court can hand down a ruling without holding further hearings.
Unlike the rice scheme ruling under the NACC process, the Thawill ruling under the Constitutional Court doesn't need to forward to the Senate for proposed impeachment of Ms Yingluck.
If the Constitution Court rules against Ms Yingluck, the prime minister will have to immediately leave office and take with her the entire cabinet. This will create a "political vacuum" that the anti-government PDRC hopes will set the stage for the establishment of a neutral government to implement national reforms.
Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala, ex-finance minister under the Yingluck administration, earlier commented that the case could shut down the government faster than that of the rice scheme.
PDRC secretary general Suthep Thaugsuban apparently believes things will play out like that when he announced on the stage on Saturday night that the protests will end in April and the Yingluck government will lose power.
However, this is not beyond the government's and the red shirts' expectations.
Red-shirt leaders across the country organised a meeting in Ayutthaya last Saturday to discuss a planned mass rally on April 5 and to apparently prepare for a possible "special situation."
The red shirts in Bangkok also met yesterday and agreed that the red shirt's moves would be coordinated and decided by co-leaders, not by individuals. Some red-shirt leaders may face bail revocations as the political situation intensifies.
United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship chairman Jatuporn Prompan said the mass rally on April 5 is expected to draw as many as 500,000 supporters and one million people will be mobilised if the situation drags on.
However, Mr Jatuporn assured the UDD movement's fight to protect the government would be peaceful, without weapons.
Democrat deputy leader Ongart Khlampaiboon said the political situation will peak in April because the legal cases against the government and the Pheu Thai Party will be considered by public independent agencies.
He said potential violent flashpoints include the change of UDD leader from Thida Thawornseth to Mr Jatuporn, the planned mass rally by red shirts next Saturday in 20 locations in Bangkok and frequent grenade attacks on the NACC office.
According to Mr Ongart, the scattered protests by red shirts may lead to a confrontation with PDRC demonstrators and it depends on Ms Yingluck and the government if they will allow the situation to get out of hand.
Former army chief Gen Chaiyasit Shinawatra, ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's cousin, went to several provinces to help mobilise red shirts, said Mr Ongart.
He called on the caretaker government to show serious intention to prevent violence.
Sansern Poljiak, the NACC's secretary general, said yesterday the agency has yet to hear from Ms Yingluck if she will meet the graft investigators or submit the document.
According to Mr Sansern, the commissioners are unlikely to relocate even though the office is blocked by red shirts.
The demonstrators from the People’s Radio for Democracy Group (PRDG) blocked the NACC office at Sanambinnam intersection last week to protest against the anti-graft panel’s decision to charge Ms Yingluck. The blockade was demolished by PDRC supporters led by Luang Pu Buddha Issara on Saturday.
"The PRDG shouldn't block the NACC office and prevent the prime minister from testifying. At least [the prime minister] should have her lawyers submit written testimony. She can tell the NACC if she plans to come in to testify later," he said.
Mr Sansern said how long the graft-busters will consider the case largely depends on the evidence and they can allow the prime minister to examine further evidence if necessary.