Rally will be litmus test for both sides

Rally will be litmus test for both sides

Analysis: The fight between the government and its critics is tight

All eyes will be watching what happens over the weekend after the red shirts kick off their rally Friday to support their embattled leader Yingluck Shinawatra.

Yingluck: Battling for her political future

But it is just one of a number of measures that the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD) and the Pheu Thai Party have in their bag if the Constitutional Court or the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) strips Ms Yingluck of her post.

The pro-government camp intends to reach out to the world community and international organisations for support.

This is where their advantage lies, because in principle the government legitimately won power through the polls and is willing to go through another round of elections to underscore the point.

The pro-government camp did not sit idle during Songkran and used the holidays to court the international community with UDD leaders Jatuporn Promphan, Tida Tawornsreth and Dr Weng Tojirakarn meeting the French ambassador. Last month, Ms Yingluck met British ambassador Mark Kent.

In fact, foreign embassies have been busy in the past month catching up with people in various provinces that they thought might constitute a key line of defence for the Pheu Thai government if something was going to happen.

Australian ambassador James Wise met Kwanchai Praipana at his residence in Udon Thani on April 4.

The firebrand UDD leader, despite being disliked by many red-shirt colleagues, has entered the limelight again after surviving an attack at his home on Feb 8.

Japanese and American diplomats have also visited him.

"The foreign diplomats would like to gauge the fighting spirit of the reds in their northern and northeastern strongholds," one diplomatic source said.

Embassies are not looking just at the mood of just people in Bangkok but are also going to Chiang Mai, Udon Thani and elsewhere.

Pro-government supporters are making full use of this development to win as much sympathy as they can.

But reality bites. As things stand, the fight between the pro- and anti government camp is close.

The reds believe Ms Yingluck will not survive but they also cannot see themselves losing.

Whatever happens they will not give up. The most likely outcome is there will be no winners.

And that is why the government is keen to negotiate with anti-government alliances led by the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC).

Sources said talks have been tense in the past several months and people were expecting that something would emerge this month, especially as Thaksin Shinawatra has recently signalled a softer stance.

He said at the weekend his sister's government is ready to make compromises. But these talks concern what should happen if Ms Yingluck is ousted.

A proposal that no criminal charges be filed against her or her family, no moves to seize their assets, and the Democrats should return to run in the next poll have come to naught so far.

The so-called "progressive reds" — community activists and independent academics — also insist there can be no backdoor dealings acceptable to them if democracy is circumvented. This is a reference to proposals to appoint a ''neutral prime minister" to replace Ms Yingluck.

With the anti-government alliance citing Section 7 of the charter to appoint a neutral prime minister, the caretaker government also cited the same article, in an apparent act of spite, to call on the King to recommend a solution.

Justice Minister Chaikasem Nitisiri wanted to seek the King's advice on what should be done if the court strips Ms Yingluck of her post.

The proposal drew flak from all sides and is unlikely to go any further.

Another tactic which red shirts are pressuring Pheu Thai to adopt is to have caretaker Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul declare his recognition of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to consider cases about Thailand.

A minority of Pheu Thai MPs currently support this idea as a bluffing gesture if the Democrat Party does not agree to run in the next election.

The Nitirat group of legal scholars, who formed the group to champion changes to the lese majeste law, has called on Mr Surapong to make such a move.

"PDRC protesters could refer to this ICC protective clause if they are prosecuted or arrested, while reds defying judicial activism or a military crackdown could also appeal to the ICC for back-up," one Nitirat member said.

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