Throughout her tenure as the United States’ ambassador to Thailand, Kristie Kenney has certainly had few dull moments, and it doesn’t look like this will change in her fourth and final year.
Kenney: A divisive figure
After taking up the posting in January 2011, she worked with the Abhisit Vejjajiva government during its final months in office before seeing the rise of the Yingluck Shinawatra administration in July 2011. Now, administration of Thailand is in the hands of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).
As America’s first female ambassador to Thailand, the career diplomat felt at ease with Ms Yingluck, who was Thailand’s first female prime minister.
Ms Kenney was also the first female US ambassador to the Philippines, where she was posted before coming to Thailand.
The American ambassador knows how to work and harness the power of the social networks in humanitarian work — as she did during the devastating floods of 2011 — fashion shows, business, media and youth outreach.
Ms Kenney has been a divisive figure with supporters and detractors of the US growing after the overthrow of the Yingluck administration.
Some people thought Ms Kenney might have left the post after hosting US Independence Day celebrations on July 4. But she is staying put, at least for a few more months.
Married for 39 years to William Brownfield, an assistant secretary of state in narcotics and law enforcement, she has shown resilience in surviving the many ups and downs of the ever-changing political circumstances in this country.
Washington, in the meantime, may not want to lead anyone into thinking that changing the ambassador now would have implications for diplomacy.
But diplomatic observers believe the perceived indifference that the ambassador may have shown to the military government cannot be prolonged for much longer.
Ms Kenney herself is aware of that. However, it is almost unthinkable to anticipate the US changing an ambassador while the junta has yet to achieve tangible results with its democratic road map.
A new ambassador nomination could come in the six to eight months. By that time, the NCPO’s advanced stages of the administrative road map should have been implemented and that could prompt the US to normalise relations with Thailand, a diplomat said.
The name of Scot Marciel, assistant secretary for foreign affairs, has popped up among inner circles as the most suitable candidate to replace Ms Kenney.
Mr Marciel is a senior career diplomat who is no stranger to Thailand. He was the first American ambassador to the Asean secretariat and after that was made ambassador to Indonesia for some three years.
He monitored the 2006 coup which toppled Thaksin Shinawatra and the latest one which ousted Ms Yingluck.
The opinion he aired to the US Congress about the latest coup was quite strong and the US administration is still considering what measures it should take in response to Thailand’s slow return to an elected government.
Mr Marciel is different in many respects from Ms Kenney and that could be a positive for Thailand in terms of bilateral relations and the country’s transition back to representative democracy.
But Ms Kenney told reporters last week there is more or less a year remaining of her ambassadorship. In the meantime, she may be mulling over her next ambassadorial post after Bangkok.
Nerves are at breaking point
F or Pheu Thai Party politicians, keeping their mouths shut and letting the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) do the talking during the reform and reconciliation process is the easy path to take.
First, they do not want to have any problems with the authorities, especially when those authorities have banned people from participating in politics and expressing any opinions that can incite unrest — and while they have martial law on their side.
Under martial law, the military can detain people for up to seven days without charge.
The NCPO has also made an example of those who disobey its summonses and orders. Prasit Chaisrisa, a former Pheu Thai MP for Surin, and red-shirt activist Sombat Boonngam-anong suffered a block on all of their financial and asset transactions after they failed to turn themselves in.
Some of the politicians do not want to take the risk of having their assets frozen or examined. Some of them have been accused of being paid to stage protests to keep the “Thaksin regime” in power.
What is more intriguing is that there is reportedly an order from the “big boss” for all Pheu Thai members and red shirts to lay low and let the NCPO run the country. It is not that Thaksin Shinawatra is giving up politics; he just does not think the military council can pull off efficient national administration and will finally be defeated at its own game.
“The ‘big boss’ is confident the military won’t get far. The pressing issue is economic problems. There is a fat chance of the NCPO making it through,” said a Pheu Thai source.
The Pheu Thai members are keeping out of public sight, at least for now. However, as time goes by, some are becoming increasingly frustrated.
The source said some senior members, especially in the Northeast, are not happy with the way they are being treated by officers assigned to monitor their activities and who often follow them around.
They are annoyed by the same old line of questioning these military men, most of whom are junior officers, pop at them every time they meet or talk. Questions like, “Can you tell us where you have been in the past two days?”, or words of concern like “Please refrain from political activities”. Their usual response are, “Don’t worry. We haven’t violated the ban. We just try to make a living.” Or “Why wouldn’t we know what we can or cannot do? We are not kids.”
According to the source, some are ready to snap if they hear the questions one more time.
This group of Pheu Thai politicians are under the impression that the military is not being fair to them. They claim they have had their backgrounds and financial transactions and assets checked and know they are in the clear. Their records are spotless, having nothing to do with political violence or suspicious activities in the past three years.
“This hurts. They have looked into us and conceded that we aren’t involved with red shirts, their activities or any violence,” said the source.
According to the source, the military should know better than to get themselves worked up like this.
“What can I advise our soldiers? They should be flexing their muscles some place else. Go and bust some mafia, crack down on graft and corruption.
“I don’t think my current activities are worth their resources,” said a former Pheu Thai MP from the Northeast.
Brothers in arms: Gen Paiboon Kumchaya, left, and Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha, middle, who appear destined for cabinet posts.
A political aspiration
The strongmen of the ruling junta may not bow out of the spotlight once a new government is formed under the interim charter in the near future.
Speculation is rife that National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) chief Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha is a prime minister in the making, given the favourable findings of several recent opinion surveys.
Gen Prayuth has so far kept mum about his chances of assuming the premiership. But soon he will be expected to explain to the public what his decision is, according to Gen Paiboon Kumchaya, assistant army chief and head of the council’s legal and justice affairs section.
He said there are people wanting to nominate Gen Prayuth for prime minister. The nomination will come after the National Legislative Assembly is established following the promulgation of the interim charter later this month.
That said, Gen Prayuth, should he decide to head the next administration, may not be the only NCPO figure included in the cabinet.
Gen Paiboon himself could make the cut for a top post as it is felt he will likely be extended the powerful post of interior minister.
A military source said Gen Paiboon is certainly in line for the post, dubbed the “little prime minister” because of the vast authority it has over the affairs of government and direct administration of local authorities.
The source said if Gen Paiboon is named interior minister, it could compensate for the lost opportunity to be a candidate for army chief when Gen Prayuth retires at the end of September. Gen Prayuth is believed to be keen on Gen Udomdet Seetabut, the deputy army chief, taking over.
The source said Gen Prayuth has entrusted Gen Paiboon with responsibilities closely connected to the Interior Ministry’s operations. The legal and justice affairs panel this week recommended amending the law so that provincial governors can oversee the reshuffling of local administrative officials. But that will require carving out a great chunk of the Interior Ministry’s powers.
It is beginning to appear as though Gen Paiboon — who is believed to have been among the planners of the May 22 coup — is familiarising himself with the work of the Interior Ministry.
The source said Gen Prayuth had earlier entertained the option of extending the interior minister post to Gen Dapong Rattanasuwan, the former deputy army chief and his close friend from military school.
However, Gen Dapong thought he would be better suited to working behind the scenes, as he did in the latest coup, according to the source.
Gen Dapong has been appointed secretary-general of the NCPO advisory council, chaired by former defence minister Gen Prawit Wongsuwon.
Gen Paiboon retains close ties to Gen Dapong and, according to the source, it is Gen Dapong who suggested Gen Paiboon take his place as interior minister if any top brass are to be considered for a top portfolio in the new cabinet.
Gen Paiboon, who retires next year, does not have to quit as assistant army chief to become interior minister. The interim charter permits a civil servant to concurrently hold a cabinet post.