Anusit Khunakorn, deputy chief of the National Security Council (NSC), is a safe bet to succeed Thawil Pliensri as the new NSC chief when he retires at the end of September — unless the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has someone else in mind.
Thawil: Replacements lining up
Mr Anusit, whose mandatory retirement is due in September 2015, is the most senior candidate among three deputies for the NSC top post. Considered a right-hand man of the NSC chief, he has served in the agency for more than 30 years and been the NSC deputy chief since 2009.
According to a source, Mr Anusit has strong backing from Mr Thawil, who also pursued a career entirely within the NSC.
But the deputy chief has not one, but two major shortcomings — that is, he lacks expertise and understanding of the southern unrest and the related violence, and is short on military connections.
These qualifications are reportedly high on the agenda as the southern insurgency is one of the NCPO’s top priorities. The NSC’s role is to design and formulate policies to address the southern problems. And communications and coordination efforts will play a crucial role in policy implementation.
These shortcomings, particularly the lack of military ties, may affect Mr Anusit’s chances of being nominated for the job.
Speaking of ties and coordination, the military may consider other candidates — and one of them is Gen Surawat Butrwong, chief of the army’s Neighbouring Countries Coordination Centre.
Gen Surawat is believed to have played a key role in the quick release of activist Veera Somkwamkid from a Cambodian prison. Gen Surawat has close ties with Cambodian military leaders and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen.
According to the source, if Gen Surawat becomes NSC chief, coordination will never be a problem.
“It could be that he will take the helm at the NSC. It all comes down to the NCPO,” the source said.
Mr Thawil is expected to nominate just one candidate for the post and he has reportedly explained to the NCPO why it has to be Mr Anusit.
Yet when expertise and close connections with the military come into play, Pornchart Boonnak, another NSC deputy chief, is deemed a perfect candidate.
Not only does Mr Pornchart have hands-on experience of southern issues, he is known to be close to army deputy chief Gen Udomdej Sitabut who is in charge of implementation of southern policy. They were classmates at Saint Gabriel’s College.
Gen Udomdej has been appointed chairman of all agencies in charge of southern problems including the Southern Border Provinces Administration Centre, NSC, the Strategic Committee for the Development of Southern Border Provinces and the police.
Mr Pornchart is less senior than Mr Anusit even though both will retire next year and does not have the outgoing boss’s blessing. If the NCPO gives Mr Thawil a free hand in naming his successor, Mr Pornchart is highly likely to miss out.
Even so, friend connections from the old Saint Gabriel School, where both Gen Udomdej and Mr Pornchart were classmates, cannot be underestimated and the public may see a surprise nomination in the last minute.
With Mr Anusit and Mr Pornchart discussed, that leaves Lt Gen Pongsakorn Rodchompoo, another NSC deputy leader, as a possible candidate.
However, some observers think Lt Gen Pongsakorn stands no chance in the contest. He is reportedly packing his bags for a transfer back to the military. The order is expected to come around the time the new NSC chief is announced.
International complication
Gossip is rife in the Foreign Affairs Ministry about who will take the helm at the Saranrom office as the top candidates are shrouded in conjecture and intense speculation.
Tanasak: Doubts in diplomatic terms
Floating around for some time has been the name of Supreme Commander Tanasak Patimapragorn, a close friend of the National Council for Peace and Order strongman Prayuth Chan-ocha.
However, it is anyone’s guess if eventually Gen Tanasak is picked for the foreign affairs portfolio and whether he has what it takes to do the job.
Whoever ends up in charge of the ministry will have to embark on three key missions announced by the NCPO on July 7. First, the minister must tell the world that Thailand is ready for Asean integration next year. Second, the minister must encourage foreign investment while building the country’s internal strengths in all aspects. And last, the minister must be a visionary in trade and commerce while ensuring that no undue benefits are given to any particular party or promote unrestricted competition especially in basic infrastructure development projects.
Gen Tanasak is not without credentials in foreign affairs. In fact, he has been a familiar face to foreign ambassadors and foreign investors.
On June 26, he asked the US ambassador to clarify reports about the US’s plan to move the annual joint military exercise, Cobra Gold, to another country in the wake of the military takeover of power.
He also visited India at the end of June and early July and received Myanmar’s supreme commander and discussed the migrant workers arrangement with him.
During the political stalemate in the latter half of last year and earlier this year, Gen Tanasak had a role in trying to defuse the political tension and spoke mostly on behalf of Gen Prayuth in a bid to calm the situation.
But some military insiders said that on the night of the coup on May 22, Gen Tanasak was not in town, although he was previously mentioned by some red shirts as the top brass most likely to stage a coup to topple the Yingluck Shinawatra government during the protracted street rallies led by the People’s Democratic Reform Council.
Gen Tanasak is deemed by some observers as cut out for the Foreign Ministry due to his heavyweight influence in the NCPO.
But some are disturbed by what they see as a blunder. “I don’t know why [Gen Tanasak] had to mobilise all the top brass to receive the Singaporean supreme commander recently,” said a retired diplomat. If diplomacy is not Gen Tanasak’s cup of tea, help could be at hand. If he is made foreign minister, he might appoint retired former ambassador Don Pramudwinai, an NCPO adviser, as his deputy.
Also, should the cabinet turn out to be dominated by many top military figures like the National Legislative Assembly is, it might not go down well with the international community.
But in the event that a civilian is chosen to head the ministry, the foreign permanent secretary Sihasak Phuangketkoew could also emerge as a candidate as he is also well-liked by many officials.
Mr Sihasak, however, also served the previous Yingluck-led government well. That could make it awkward if in the future he must perform certain duties, including revoking the former premier’s passport.
Some diplomats have described Mr Sihasak, 57, as not appearing to be politically inclined and Gen Prayuth is thought to be fairly satisfied with the ministry under his guidance so far.
For nearly a decade, he has served in diplomatic missions to Washington DC and Geneva and a decade in Hong Kong and Japan as well as stints at various departments including three years as foreign permanent secretary.
A learning experience
Officials at the Ministry of Education are working hard at the moment to overhaul the country’s education system which is among 11 key issues the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) has slated for national reform.
Pressed by a looming deadline, the officials have drafted a road map on education reform as part of national reform, an important mantra the military junta has adopted since it took over national administration from the Yingluck Shinawatra government.
Suthasri: Public not being ignored
The ministry believes education reform should cover six main issues: teacher reform, distribution of educational opportunities, the educational management system, manpower production and developments to enhance the country’s competitive capability, the system of learning and the educational technology system.
Open forums are in the pipeline to gather thoughts and ideas from the public. They will give relevant people and authorities a platform to debate issues and discuss the ministry’s road map while generating new ideas to efficiently overhaul the education system and ensure no one is left out of the reform bandwagon.
However, the ministry’s forums are considered by some critics as perfunctory events because education officials already have a goal in mind.
So far, one public forum has been organised — on July 19 at a hotel in Bangkok. The next round has not yet been scheduled, although the ministry plans to forward the road map on education reform to the NCPO’s social and psychological affairs headed by Adm Narong Pipatanasai this month.
The draft road map was approved on Aug 1 by the board of the Education Council chaired by the permanent secretary for education and acting education minister Suthasri Wongsamarn, who at one point served as the deputy secretary-general of the Office of the Education Council.
A parallel forum was run by a group of educators at Srinakharinwirot University. Ms Suthasri attended that forum and said the educators’ proposals were in line with the ministry’s plans.
An experienced educator, however, has looked at the draft road map and declared it offers quite a top-down approach. The road map comes in the form of a guideline that could usher in reform progress, while gaps could be identified and tackled during future public forums.
“But the current road map is too authoritarian and which is hard to change. Several problems were pointed out but change is nowhere in sight. Importantly, educators invited to attend the public forum were given only a few minutes to propose ideas to solve the educational system problems in the country,” the educator said.
Ms Suthasri insists that differing opinions and ideas from the public are not being ignored. There is the working group to gather and analyse all data in order to develop a well-rounded and integrative road map before it is forwarded to the NCPO.
So far, several outlets have been opened for the public to send in their comments, such as www.edreform.moe.go.th, www.facebook.com/thailandedreform and edreform@moe.go.th, which have drawn up to 20,000 comments so far, she added.