As army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha and other armed forces leaders approach their scheduled retirement on Sept 30, they need to be sure the transfer of military power goes smoothly and that their successors will not stage a counter-coup against them.
From left, Supreme Commander Tanasak Patimapragorn appears to wai Royal Thai Navy commander Narong Pipattanasai, Royal Thai Air Force chief Prajin Juntong and the Royal Thai Army commander and NCPO leader Gen Prayuth Chan-ocha. (Bangkok Post photos)
The end of September each year is recognised as the last working day of outgoing state officials. Several of these, including the military top brass, reach their mandatory retirement age and the successors take on the mantle of leadership.
However, this year has significant implications. All leaders of the army, navy and air force will retire this year. Their retirement coincides with a transitional stage in which power is transferred from the military regime led by the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) to the interim government, which is expected to be set up this month.
Gen Prayuth heads a long roll call of military officers who retire at the end of September. Other key NCPO members whose retirement is expected on Sept 30 are Supreme Commander Tanasak Patimapragorn, navy commander Narong Pipattanasai and air force commander Prajin Juntong. All three are NCPO deputies.
They are expected to retire as scheduled, rather than to extend their term, to avoid drawing the ire of upcoming military officers awaiting promotion. However, the country has been under ''special'' circumstances since the May 22 coup, so the NCPO leaders must be sure the transfer of military power is smooth and their successors remain steadfast in their loyalty.
Observers believe Gen Prayuth, former defence minister Prawit Wongsuwan and former army chief Anupong Paojinda are the main architects of the transfer of power. Gen Prawit is now chairman of the NCPO advisory panel and Gen Anupong is deputy chairman.
The three, along with other high-ranking military officers, on Tuesday attended a ceremony marking Her Majesty the Queen' s 82nd birthday, held at the 1st Infantry Regiment on Phahon Yothin Road.
The event was organised by the Five Provinces Bordering Forests Preservation Foundation, of which Gen Prawit is chairman, and Gen Prayuth and Gen Anupong are committee members.
The generals have kept close ties since the early stages of their military careers when they served in the 21st Infantry Regiment in Chon Buri. They were also members of the Burapha Phayak, or Tigers of the East, the name used by present and former soldiers of the 2nd Infantry Division (Queen's Guard) based in the eastern province of Prachin Buri.
The three were assigned to deal with the red shirts during the 2010 political violence under the Abhisit Vejjajiva government. Gen Prawit was defence minister while Gen Anupong was the army chief and Gen Prayuth was deputy army chief.
Gen Prayuth is now expected to be nominated as the interim premier after his retirement from the army, allowing his subordinates to succeed him as army chief.
Deputy army chief Udomdej Seetabutr is favoured for the post of army chief. He is also a member of the Burapha Phayak group.
Another candidate is assistant army chief Gen Paiboon Khumchaya, who has a close relationship with the retired deputy army chief Dapong Ratanasuwan, now an NCPO adviser. Gen Dapong is also a close friend of Gen Prayuth at the Armed Forces Academies Preparatory School.
Gen Paiboon came from another main faction of the army named the Wongthewan (Divine Lineage), referring to those from the 1st Division, (King's Guard), based in Bangkok. Several previous army chiefs have hailed from the unit, going back several decades.
However, the army source said Gen Udomdej is the one who Gen Prawit, Gen Anupong and Gen Prayut trust most as they and Gen Udomdej served together when they were young soldiers.
When Gen Prawit was army chief between 2004-2005, he assigned army officers from the Burapha Phayak faction to control the army's key combat units, replacing those from the Wongthewan group.
After the Sept 19, 2006 coup, Gen Anupong and Gen Prayuth took on the role of army chief successively.
As for the new Supreme Commander, Deputy Supreme Commander Gen Woraphong Sanganet is tipped to be promoted as Gen Tanasak's replacement. Navy commander Adm Narong is expected to name assistant navy chief Kraisorn Chansuwanich as his successor while air force chief ACM Prajin is expected to name air force chief of staff Tritos Sonjaeng as his replacement.