The so-called 6-4-6-4 model used to undertake a new charter drafting process is likely to have a dramatic impact on Thailand's major parties.
Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, in cryptic comments, said resetting the political landscape — including both the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties — ahead of the next election seems to be the underlying agenda.
The formula refers to the period of 20 months that is necessary to write a new draft charter and all the processes needed to hold elections and have an elected government in office.
After six months of charter drafting, four months are needed to prepare a referendum, another six months to draft the new constitution's organic laws and the last four months for election preparations.
Mr Wissanu said the 6-4-6-4 roadmap can be trimmed down, but shortening the election preparation period as suggested by some politicians remained in doubt.
He said all would depend on new rules to be covered by the constitution's organic laws and warned that the rule covering political parties could see the established political parties reset.
Existing political parties might be required to re-register under new rules, he said.
The deputy prime minister made the remarks when commenting on Pheu Thai member Chaturon Chaisaeng’s proposal that the National Council for Peace and Order's (NCPO) 6-4-6-4 roadmap should be shortened to a 3-3-3-2 or 3-3-3-3 formula.
Mr Chaturon's model would push the roadmap forward by 10 to 11 months.
Mr Wissanu said two months for election preparations as proposed by Mr Chaturon might be enough for the dominant political parties such as Pheu Thai and the Democrats, but not for new parties.
As the NCPO has banned the establishment of new political parties and political gatherings, those who intend to contest elections will be allowed to make their first move only after an organic law on political parties is in place.
Mr Wissanu warned: "A new party can be set up when a new law is in place and we don't know if it will introduce certain rules or conditions that are not so normal. I think it will and the Pheu Thai and Democrat parties may have to re-register," he said.
He declined to elaborate, but pointed to the rejected charter draft written by the Borwornsak Uwanno committee.
He said the Borwornsak draft required enactment of a new political party law that would be totally different from the existing one.
Shortening the election preparation period would be beneficial to the established parties like Pheu Thai and the Democrats, but a disadvantage to new parties.
"Don't you think a new charter draft will not say anything about this? The new draft has to ensure fairness for all parties," he said. "So if an election can take place in seven days, that means the existing parties will have an edge over others. That can't be allowed to happen."
A source at Government House said it is highly likely the organic law on political parties will "dissolve" all political parties to reset the landscape.
By dissolving the existing political parties, the members will have an opportunity to consider if they will stay with their old parties or seek new homes, the source said.
The Democrat Party has the largest membership at 14 million followed by Pheu Thai with 11 million.
A former charter drafter told the Bangkok Post it is likely that much of the rejected draft charter will be retained in a new version to be written by a 21-man panel. Most elements involving the political and election systems will be pretty much the same.
According to the ex-charter writer, a primary vote is expected to be retained to ensure party members are not dictated to by executives, most of whom are financiers. Under the rejected draft, parties, when nominating candidates for their members to select, must hold a primary vote.
"The organic law on political parties is likely to be firmed up to limit the role of party financiers who usually exert control over party MPs," he said.
Asked about the appointment of the new constitution drafting committee, he said some candidates are having second thoughts because of the two-year political break stipulation. Under the interim constitution, charter drafters are banned from assuming political positions within two years from leaving office.
Mr Wissanu said it is important to point out the two-year political ban to potential candidates.